Forex Educations

HVMM (High Velocity Market Master)

2009-08-27T20:56:00.000+07:00

I'm sure you know by now that you don't have to trade all day to see your account grow. Even if you consider yourself a day trader, it doesn't always equals 8 hours of full-time trading. After many years of trading, I've figured out that the key is having the right trading rules and a system that you can trust so you're not strapped to your computer all day taking the wrong trades. No tricks just the right ‘evil plan.' See how using the HVMM strategy brought in $750 per contract in just over 30 minutes:

HVMM (High Velocity Market Master)

In the video the guys over at the HVMM headquarters revealed that trading Crude Oil Futures, can be ideal in particular for those with some trading experience. But, even if you're not an experienced trader, the nice thing about the HVMM is it doesn't discriminate. You can trade any market you desire and any time frame.

HVMM (High Velocity Market Master)

Find out how. Make sure you're registered for the HVMM Premier Tuesday September 1st at 9:00am EST/12:00pm PST/ 5:00pm GMT.

HVMM (High Velocity Market Master)

I'll be there waiting to hear your name called as the winner of their blog
contest. Oh did you catch the trade tip in this latest video? Don't forget
to post the answer in the blog comments! You have to participate in the blog contest and ATTEND the webinar to be in the drawing for the first copy of the HVMM before it's even on the market. You'd better reserve your seat now:

HVMM (High Velocity Market Master)

Money Management in Forex Trading

2009-08-27T19:20:00.000+07:00

Think about it, many forex traders spend most of their time trying to figure out when to trade. Proper money management is by far the most important factor in achieving success if for whatever reason you are set on becoming a forex trader. Many traders ignore the importance of proper money management. This is surprising given that money management is the only thing a forex trader can control. Instead of thinking when to trade, forex traders should be thinking how much to trade. There is no guaranteed way to make money.

Forex market is highly unpredictable and ruthless. Forex market is bigger than you, bigger than me and smarter than definitely all of us. Even the best and the brightest are wrong more often than they are right. We are bound to be wrong many times and make mistakes. Many people think that trading requires lot of risk taking. The biggest misconception many people have about traders is that they tend to take a lot of risk to make huge profits. You always control risk with proper money management techniques. This enables us to weather sustained drawdowns and live to trade another day.

All traders must know before hand how much they are willing to risk when trading a mechanical system or trading in a discretionary fashion. In reality great traders aim to minimize their risk relative to their returns at any given moment! Most of us exit the trade depending on our pain threshold level. All too often traders choose an arbitrary numbers that have little to do with proper money management. Ask yourself these questions before any trade: How do I determine my position size? How do I set my stops?

Loss is painful. It increases the level of stress for you. We all are afraid of losing. Our innate fear of failure makes us place too much importance on not to lose. Instead we should be giving more importance to learning how to manage our losses comfortably. Are there any good money management rules? Yes, good money management rules exist and the best way to see if your money management rules need tweaking is to look at your results. The good thing about money management is that it is easy to learn and implement. It just requires some discipline on your part.

For example, you should consider taking smaller positions to mitigate the risk of ruin if you consistently post large winners and losers. However, you consider taking slightly larger positions if your losers are substantially smaller than your winners! The longer you will stay in the market the higher the chances of hitting the home run trade. Longer term success in trading is achieved by accumulating steady profits and occasionally hitting the home run trade. With proper money management you can maintain the all important risk-reward ratio and hit home run trades more often.

Flexible Forex Trading

2009-08-27T19:00:00.000+07:00

Flexible forex trading is what you need to survive the forex market in the long run. Learn to be flexible when trading. Flexibility is critical for you if you want to survive in the forex market long term. Flexibility in trading means giving you options. Options to enter into a trade! Stay in it and get out of it.

Trade only one big lot and you essentially remove options from your table until you are faced with an all or nothing trade by becoming overexposed to any one position. Your survival is measured in days not years in the forex world.

Never ever trade without a stop loss in place! This is the most important risk management lesson. However, most of the time you will get stopped out of the market too soon! Most traders have had the frustrating experience of getting stopped out. Only to see the market return back to your entry point some times later on in the day. The only way to stay out of such situations is to stay flexible and trade multiple lots.

How do you test the markets? By making multiple entries! You should consider your initial entry as your toes testing the temperature of the market. If you find it too cold, then you should sit it out. By trading only one lot you are betting that the market will move 50/50 in your favor.

Just jump right in if you find the temperature right. Multiple entries gives you the flexibility to properly position yourself for the move or pull out with a small loss if your analysis proves correct by trading small until you think you have all the information and confirmation you need.

Learn to trade in multiple lots with multiple entries and multiple exits. Trading this way also means missing out on far fewer since pulling the initial trigger becomes less painful making the decision process much less stressful trades when compared to the all in one approach.

Dollar Benefits on U.S. Economic Data; Today Traders Focus on the U.S Unemployment Claims

2009-08-27T17:18:00.000+07:00

The U.S dollar gained ground Wednesday against the EUR and the British pound, after strong data on orders for new U.S.-made durable goods and new home sales comforted expectations of an improvement in the economy. The greenback traded higher after the durable-goods orders report said orders for July rose by 4.9%, the largest increase in 2 years. Investors will be watching for the new U.S. jobs report today before making significant moves.

USD - Dollar Rises on Signs of Economic Recovery

The Dollar rallied yesterday against most of its major counterparts after data suggesting the slowdown in the U.S. housing market has bottomed out. A better-then-expected result gave further support to the U.S. currency. The Dollar has been sold off recently partly due to growing optimism regarding the state of the U.S. economy. The USD finished yesterday's trading session about 50 pips higher against the EUR at the1.4249 level.

Yesterday's main U.S economic event was the New Home Sales data. New U.S. home sales hit its highest level in 10 months in July. Orders for Long-Lasting Manufactured Goods also surged yesterday and are interpreted by traders as fresh evidence of a modest economic recovery. Sales of "New Single-family Homes" rose by 9.6% from June, the highest rate since September. It is in fact the biggest percentage gain since a matching increase in February 2005, another indication that housing activity had stabilized after a three-year slump.

Looking ahead to today, there are few important news releases coming out of the U.S. These include the Prelim GDP and Unemployment Claims at 12.30 GMT. Traders will be paying close attention to today's announcement as a stronger than expected result may continue to boost the USD in the short-term. On the other hand, if the results turn out to be lower than forecast, then the Dollar may record a fairly bearish session in today's trading.

EUR - EUR Records Mixed Results against the Majors

The EUR finished yesterday's trading session with mixed results versus the major currencies. The 16-nation currency extended gains versus the Sterling on Wednesday, to trade above $0.8775 amid a broad sell-off in the GBP. The EUR experienced similar behavior against the CHF as the pair rose from 1.5185 to 1.5220 by days end. The EUR did see bearishness as well against the USD as it lost over 50 pips and closed at 1.4249.

A leading indicator released yesterday from Europe was the German Ifo Business Climate report. Germany holds the largest and strongest economy in the Euro-Zone, and thus the relevant publications from this economy usually have a hefty impact over the EUR. This indicator jumped to 90.5 in August from 87.4 in July, above economists' expectations. Analysts said that this is a plus for the European economy, and it's a sign confirming that the real economy is starting to get out of the period of freefall.

Sentiment in the Euro-Zone economy has brightened in the past month following better-than-expected news. The EUR is showing signs of resilience even though there was volatility throughout non-Euro crosses. It will be crucial for traders to identify how the preceding economic indicators from the U.S., Japanese, and other key economies will affect their positions.

JPY - The Japanese Yen Extends its Bullish Run

The Japanese yen rose for a second day against the EUR amid concerns financial losses will delay a recovery in the global economy, boosting demand for Japan's currency as a safe haven. The Yen also rose to a 5-week high against the British pound as a smaller-than-expected July trade balance data from Japan prompted investors flee from riskier-assets.

The outlook for economy in Japan is still doubtful as Japan's export slump deepened in July, indicating the boost in demand that helped pull the country out of its recession last quarter may be short-lived. Shipments abroad fell 36.5 % from a year earlier, steeper than June's 35.7% drop.

Crude Oil - Crude Oil Falls 1.4% on U.S Inventory Data

The price of Crude Oil fell 1.4% or $1.00 to $71.20 yesterday, as the latest inventory numbers from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed an increase in crude oil stockpiles. The EIA reports that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, increased by 200,000 barrels in the week ending August 21, from the previous week.

Crude Oil also declined on concern China may cut back on industrial investment, slowing demand for fuels in the world's second-largest energy user. Crude traded low after China said it was studying curbs on overcapacity in industries including steel and cement. Some analysts said the failure to break through the key level of $75 may signal that prices have topped out, with demand for oil still depressed by the global economic slowdown and murky signs of a broad recovery.

Article Source - Dollar Benefits on U.S. Economic Data; Today Traders Focus on the U.S Unemployment Claims

Euro in Play as German CPI Shrinks for Second Month, Boosting Deflation Fears (Euro Open)

2009-08-27T17:15:00.000+07:00

The Euro may see selling pressure in European hours with Germany’s Consumer Price Index expected to show that the annual inflation rate fell for the second consecutive month in August. UK Nationwide House Prices are also on tap, with forecasts calling for home values to fall the least in 16 months.

Key Overnight Developments

• New Zealand Trade Deficit Narrowed in July as Imports Tumbled
• Australian Business Investment Trumps Expectations in Second Quarter

Critical Levels

The Euro drifted slightly lower ahead of the opening bell in Europe, shedding 0.1%. The British Pound also trended lower, giving up 0.2% to the greenback. Technical positioning suggests the US Dollar is carving out a bottom against most major currencies.

Asia Session Highlights

New Zealand’s Trade Balance deficit narrowed to –NZ$2.5 billion in July from –NZ$3.1 billion in the preceding month as imports fell by a whopping -20.9% from a year before, easily overwhelming a -7.3% decline in exports. The reading is likely a reflection of the impact of rising unemployment on domestic demand: the jobless rate has risen to a nine-year high of 6%, trimming incomes and discouraging consumption. The outcome is all the more ominous considering the local currency has gained 20.1% since the beginning of the year, which would be expected to have helped imports higher by boosting New Zealanders’ purchasing power of foreign goods. More of the same is likely ahead, with economists calling for the unemployment rate to continue higher to hit 7.45% next year.

In Australia, Private Capital Expenditure (a measure of business investment) surprised sharply to the upside, adding 3.3% in the second quarter to trump expectations of a -5.0% decline. The improvement likely came as the government spent 4% of GDP in stimulus to boost the sagging economy amid the global downturn. Similar developments have been readily indentified across the world as governments stepped in to replace shrinking private demand, with the real question now being whether the recovery has any staying power once fiscal stimulus reaches its inherent limits.

Euro Session: What to Expect

The preliminary estimate of Germany’s EU-harmonized Consumer Price Index is expected to show that inflation fell at an annual pace of -0.4% in August, a slight improvement over the -0.7% result registered in the previous month. Still, the bottom line is that prices are set to decline for the second consecutive month; if this continues to be the case, it will contribute to building expectations of lower prices in the future, threatening to unleash a deflationary spiral wherein consumers and businesses perpetually hold off on spending and investment as they wait for the best possible bargain, bringing economic growth to a virtual standstill. At the moment, a survey of economists polled by Bloomberg suggests the market sees CPI shrinking through the third quarter and returning to a path of positive growth by the end of the year. If this proves to be too rosy, traders may punish the Euro as it becomes clear that the Euro Zone’s largest economy and by extension the currency bloc as a whole are heading for a long-term period of low interest rates and sub-par economic growth. A disappointing outcome seems likely considering the European Central Bank’s apparent inability to offer effective monetary easing as well as well-founded reservations about the sustainability of the second-quarter uptick in German GDP. Indeed, the expected improvements in GfK Consumer Confidence and Bloomberg Retail PMI are all but certainly a product of fiscal stimulus both domestically and abroad, with the big question for Germany as well as most anywhere at this stage being whether growth will continue after the flow of government cash dries up.

In the UK, the Nationwide House Prices report is set to show that property values fell -3.9% in the year to August, the smallest decline in 16 months and a significant improvement over the -6.2% result noted in the previous month. The improvement follows yesterday’s surprisingly strong rise in approved loans for house purchases. Still, it must be kept in mind that any boost to consumer confidence that can be expected from rising real estate values (via a positive wealth effect) is likely to be had from changes in the actual monetary value of Britons’ homes rather than an improvement in the growth rate. Indeed, it is not difficult to produce better results in the percent-change reading considering the very low base form which prices must recovery. If expectations are to be validated, home prices will stand near October 2005 levels, putting everyone that bought real estate between then and the peak in October 2007 firmly under water. Home prices grew five-fold during this period, hinting that the number of homes sold was more than formidable and suggesting that a good portion of UK homeowners are far from seeing any income boost from their real-estate portfolio.

Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Analyst
Article Source - Euro in Play as German CPI Shrinks for Second Month, Boosting Deflation Fears (Euro Open)

Overleveraging in Forex Trading

2009-08-27T16:18:00.000+07:00

Many of us are not clear what overleverage is in forex trading? You are fooled into thinking that it is a good thing to control $200,000 with $1000. Forex brokers constantly extol the virtue of 200:1 leverage ratio. Don’t fall into this trap. Overleverage is like driving at a speed of 150 mph. Suppose you have $1000 starting balance. You decide on a leverage of 200:1. A mere 10 pips move against you would result into 20% of your account equity getting wiped out if you were to trade $200,000 in EUR/USD.

This is not the only thing. In any trade there is a trading cost. Trading cost is the bid/offer pips spreads you pay when enter the trade or exit the trade. Suppose the spread is only 3 pips. In fact, you are having a trading cost of $60 just by entering the trade and you are down 6% on a trade. $60 trading cost on $1000 equity is not a small thing. This is only the entry cost. If you are forced to exit, you will again have to pay $60 as the trading cost. Your total trading cost will become $120. This is much more than any permissible loss. Any market noise is bound to wipe out your account size. Trading position sizes this big in relation to your account size means that you are essentially trading yourself into a corner.

You may as well hand over your money directly to your forex broker instead of losing it in a trade if you are overleveraging your trades. Forex brokers love this. This is easy money for them. What is the suitable level of leverage for a retail trader? The retail investor should definitely not use more than 10 times leverage. It means the price would have to move 1000 pips against you before your account gets wiped out if you have a starting balance of $1000. Professional money managers don’t use more than 2-5 times leverage level.

Understanding the role of leverage and how to avoid overleverage is crucial for your long term success as a forex trader or for that matter any trader. You get more room to maneuver and it gives you more flexibility with a leverage level of 10. Choosing the right amount of leverage is the first critical step in maintaining your flexibility in the market. Learn to be flexible when trading. Flexibility is critical for you if you want to survive in the forex market long term. Flexibility in trading means giving you options. Options to enter into a trade! Stay in it and get out of it.

Trade only one big lot and you essentially remove options from your table until you are faced with an all or nothing trade by becoming overexposed to any one position. Your survival is measured in days not years in the forex world. Never ever trade without a stop loss in place! This is the most important risk management lesson. However, most of the time you will get stopped out of the market too soon! Most traders have had the frustrating experience of getting stopped out. Only to see the market return back to your entry point some times later on in the day. The only way to stay out of such situations is to stay flexible and trade multiple lots.

Crude Oil Plummets on Profit Taking

2009-08-26T20:36:00.000+07:00

Later afternoon trading saw the price of Crude Oil take a nose dive as traders took profit. The price of Oil stalled at the $75 resistance level and fell significantly following the failed breach. Today traders will be tracking the release of the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data along with the New Home Sales numbers for today's market direction.

USD - Dollar Sees Mixed Results against the Majors

Yesterday, the Dollar saw mixed results against its major currency rivals. Against the EUR, the Dollar began the trading session with sharp drops, yet it managed to fully recover later on. The Dollar saw mixed result against the Yen as well.

The Dollar's recovery came as a result of the better than expected Conference Board Consumer Confidence report. The report showed that the U.S. consumers' confidence has increased in August, largely due to the labor market recovery. The report rose to 54.1, making the first gain in three months, from 47.4 in July. The most significant outcome of this result is that it shows that consumers feel their financial outlook is secure and thus allow themselves to spend more. Eventually this has the potential to elevate the economy as analysts expect.

Looking ahead for today, a batch of data is expected from the U.S. economy. Two main publications are expected to create large volatility in the market - the Durable Goods Orders indices and the New Home Sales. The Durable Goods Orders indices are expected at 12:30 GMT. Investors hold great importance to their results as they are leading indicators of production, especially the core report. The New Home Sales is scheduled for 14:00 GMT. This is one of the highest indicators of the housing sector, and thus has an immense impact on the Dollar. Analysts forecast 393K new single-family homes were sold during July, and if the end result will be similar it has the potential to boost the Dollar's recovery.

EUR - German Business Climate on Tap

During yesterday's trading the EUR saw volatile activity against the major currencies. The Euro saw mixed results against the Dollar and the Yen, beginning the day with rising trends yet dropping later on. However against the Pound, the Euro continued the bullish trend from the last few days.

The EUR's rise in early trading came as a result of the positive data published from the Euro-Zone. The German Final Gross Domestic Product showed a 0.3% rise in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services purchased by the German economy, marking the first positive results in 5 months. This continued the recent positive figures from both Germany and France, the two largest economies in the Euro-Zone. Also yesterday, the Belgium Business Climate report delivered a better than expected figure after dropping 18.2 points, beating expectations for a 19.7 drop. This also supported the EUR during yesterday's trading.

As for today, two main publications are expected from the German economy, the German Import Prices and the German Business Climate. The German Business Climate, published by the Institute for Economic Research, is expected to create a large impact on the EUR. It is considered to be a leading indicator of economic health because business is known to react quickly to market conditions. A positive result is likely to increase hope for an early economic recover, which has the potential to strengthen the EUR.

JPY - Yen Recovers against the Major Currencies

The Yen saw a mixed trading day during yesterday's session. The Yen began with bearish trends against both the Dollar and the EUR. However, later on it managed to recover back to previous rates. Against the Pound, the JPY continued to strengthen and the GBP/JPY is currently traded around the 153.40 level.

The Yen recovered due to concerns that financial losses will delay a recovery in the global economy, increasing demand for the Yen as a refuge. Currently, many analysts claim that the outlook for economies around the world is still doubtful. This situation is known to create risk aversion, which leads to the purchase of the Yen.

During late trading, the Japanese Trade Balance report was released, delivering a poor result of 0.19T, lower than the 0.35T expected. The Japanese economy largely relies on its exporting, and thus this result has the potential to halt the Yen's recovery.

As for the day ahead, no imported data is expected from the Japanese economy. Traders are advised to follow the leading publications from the U.S and the Euro-Zone as they are likely to set the tone in today's trading.

Crude Oil - Crude Oil Drops to $71 a Barrel

Crude Oil fell close to $3 a barrel during yesterday's trading, to the lowest price in a week, seeing the first decline in six days.

Crude Oil dropped from $75 a barrel to $71.20 on signs that reduced lending in China deceased demand for the world's fastest-growing, energy-consuming county. Another reason for oil's weakness is the recovering Dollar. Because Oil is valued in Dollars, the fluctuations in the Dollar's value tend to affect oil as well. During yesterday's trading, a U.S. Consumer Confidence report was released, providing a better than expected figure, which promptly strengthen the Dollar. This eventually had an impact on Crude Oil's value, and led to the sharp drop.

As for today, the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories is scheduled at 14:30 GMT. This report measures the change in number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week. Its result tends to have an immense impact on oil's value, and traders are advised to follow this report with extra caution.

Article Source - Crude Oil Plummets on Profit Taking

Euro May Gain as German IFO Rises But Long-Term Outlook Favors Downside (Euro Open)

2009-08-26T20:32:00.000+07:00

The Euro may see near-term gains in European hours as Germany’s IFO indicator of business confidence shows that companies’ 6-month economic outlook improved for the eighth consecutive month in August, but the likely path of interest rates favors the downside in the long-term outlook.

Key Overnight Developments

• Japan's Trade Surplus Shrinks in July, Further Losses Likely
• Euro Flat, British Pound Lower Against USD in Overnight Trading

Critical Levels

The Euro tried lower but rebounded late into the session to yield a flat result in Asian trading. The British Pound declined, testing as low as 1.6306. Technical positioning suggests the US Dollar is carving out a bottom against most major currencies.

Asia Session Highlights

Japan’s Merchandise Trade Balance surplus shrank to 380.2 billion yen in July, down from a revised 507.5 billion in June as imports grew 3% while exports shrank -1.3% from the previous month. The metric hit a record low in January 2009 and has since corrected higher, coinciding with acceleration in the growth of unemployment that has weighed on consumer spending, including that of foreign-made products. Indeed, in annual terms, the rate of contraction in inbound shipments (-40.8%) continues to outpace the drop in overseas sales (-36.5%). Still, the trade balance has been trending firmly lower since the surplus peaked in September 2007, the same month that US personal consumption of durable goods topped out and began to trend sharply lower. Although current economic growth forecasts suggest the US will outpace most industrial countries as the global recovery gains traction, chances are it will be some time before the American consumer is ready to meaningfully commit to big-ticket purchases such as Japanese cars and electronics. Indeed, a survey of economists conducted by Bloomberg calls for the external sector to add just 2.3% to overall growth on average this year and in 2010, the least in 9 years.

Euro Session: What to Expect

Germany’s IFO Survey of business confidence is expected to show that firms’ 6-month economic outlook improved for the eighth consecutive month in August. Still, the reading is expected at 92.0, a print below the 100 “boom-bust” threshold, suggesting conditions are still deteriorating but at a perpetually slower pace. Some recovery is to be expected as an array of fiscal stimulus both in Germany and abroad boost domestic demand and exports, but the big question in the Euro Zone’s top economy as well as most anywhere at this stage is whether growth is sustainable after the flow of government cash dries up. As it stands, a survey of economists conducted by Bloomberg suggests that Germany, and by extension the Euro region as a whole, will underperform most industrialized countries at least through the end of next year. The most pronounced differentials are seen against commodity-linked counties (Canada, Australia, and New Zealand) as well as the United States. A comparatively slower pace of economic growth will mean that Europe lags behind the curve as central banks begin to return to higher interest rates, a prospect that surely bodes ill for the single currency.

Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Analyst
Article Source - Euro May Gain as German IFO Rises But Long-Term Outlook Favors Downside (Euro Open)

Forex Supernatural

2009-08-26T14:27:00.000+07:00

You already know how huge a market Forex is. You probably have invested a ton of money and time learning how to make a killing in the Forex markets. I bet you've bought all sorts of products, systems, tools... you name it. Well, I'm going to blast all of those out of the water. Sorry to tell you that what you've spent so far is going to end up being wasted money, but I've had enough. It's time for people to start profiting from Forex instead of helping product sellers pad their pockets.

Forex Supernatural

The only challenge is that I have a tight lid on this for the moment. Why? Because it's almost ready, but not quite. If I let the cat out of the bag too soon...well, I just won't. But I'm not going to leave you twisting in the wind entirely. Let me get right to it. Do you know why you haven't succeeded at Forex? It boils down to one thing. You're not smart enough, and you're not emotionless enough. Neither am I. I'm in the same boat as you.

We're human beings. We can't switch off our emotions and trade like the Terminator hunted down his enemies. But that's exactly how you have to trade if you're going to swipe the profits pros rake in. It took me years to learn this lesson. Oh, don't misunderstand, you can do very well as a Forex trader even if you have to fight emotion every step of the way. And you don't have to be a genius to put on profitable trades. But none of that matters. The key is making profits consistently, and hanging on to the profits you make.

Forex Supernatural

I can tell you from personal experience, most traders, I mean the vast majority (95 percent, plus) will NEVER succeed. They'll trade for a while, make some gains, make even bigger losses, and quit when they run out of cash. It's worse than a gambling addiction. Any true Forex expert out there will confirm this. I'm sick of that reality, for myself and for you. I set out to change it. The lid is still on tight (I won't budge until the appointed time), but I'll tell you this...What I've created is going to turn your world upside down. You simply won't believe it. I've created software that:

* Finds a TON of high-probability trades for you

* Enters each trade at exactly the right time

* Closes the trade at the right time, either with a small loss (yes, those happen) or with a nice gain

* Does all of that complete autopilot

That means you can use what I've created even if you work at a job all day. You don't have to babysit your computer. Heck, you don't even have to check it for weeks if you don't want to. And the results? Maybe this will excite you...

$10,360 profit on ONE trade...

$5,615 on only four trades in a week...

$6,164 on only three trades in a week

As always, you might make more, you might make less. But one thing is true for everyone...this is a stone cold trading weapon. It's like having your own Forex killer on your side. I've poured all of my years of trading experience and trial-and-error learning into this software. It's not the same old thing that doesn't work, despite the promises of autopilot wealth. Like I said, I'm not going to reveal this yet. You only have to wait two days, though. At that point, I'll send you a link to a free video that shows you just how powerful this thing is. I'll also give you the chance to sign up for another free video that shows you proof of results for this thing that will shock you (what I've told you in this email is NOT a fluke, by any stretch of the imagination).

Forex Supernatural

Take the worldwide stock market, the commodities markets, and every other market you can think of. Bundle them up. The Forex market is bigger than all of them combined. People are trading U.S. Dollars, Japanese Yen, Euros and all sorts of other currencies literally every minute of every day from Sunday night to Friday night. Fortunes get made and lost in minutes. That's how fast this market moves. And prior to now, only pros have been able to make a killing. But we are going to change all of that. We're going to let YOU get in on the action... without getting slaughtered.

The reason Forex trading is so risky for novices who give it a shot is that speed of the market. Putting on trades isn't rocket science, once you get the idea that you can buy when things are going up and sell when they're going down to make money both ways (that's a mind-bender for some people). But the speed of the market exposes the raw power of emotions to screw up your trading results. Think about how fast the market moves.

Forex Supernatural

If you put on a trade for $1,000, you could double your money in literally minutes on a strong move that goes your way. But you can also get run over by a freight train when a move doesn't go your way. That means most people get whipsawed by two emotions that just about doom them to failure. They're scared to death of losing money, probably because they've had some big losses or can imagine the losses being huge. Or they're greedy, and they hang on to positions too long as their profits melt away.

After doing that a couple of times, it's easy to see why people get skittish. How hard to do you have to work to earn $1,000 right now? Watching it vanish in a few minutes because China talks yucky about the U.S. Dollar is no fun.Most people simply have no defense against their own emotions, and it costs them their entire savings. That's why what these guys are talking about is going to thrill you. I won't even reveal who they are... that's part of the fun. Watch this extremely short video to see why this is so exciting:

Forex Supernatural

We're going to explain everything, and it won't cost you a penny to learn about how we're going to change your life. I won't reveal too much here. But I will divulge one thing...If you thought Forex was hard, or took lots of sweat effort, or was the riskiest game in town, prepare to be shocked out of your shoes. We are going to reduce your risk to manageable levels (it can never be zero), and take 99.99 percent of the work away. No, that's not a joke. It's absolutely for real. You don't have to believe me. Just watch the video and let us prove it to you:

Forex Supernatural

I don’t mean the mechanics of trading, which are easy. I mean making consistent profits that let you live a life you can’t imagine right now. If you’ve ever tried Forex and gotten eaten alive, you know what I mean. But there’s a reason for that. It has nothing to do with professional traders crushing you in the market. Frankly, it’s too big for them to control that way. It also has nothing to do with some crazy conspiracy theory about shadowy forces out to steal your success. NOBODY controls the Forex market, and there is NO conspiracy. So why is Forex so hard? Two reasons...

The first reason is that the market moves like greased lightning. Most people think the stock market moves fast. You can have stocks like Google dance around and be up or down $10 in a day...or in an afternoon. But let me tell you, Google is in a coma compared to Forex moves. It’s shocking. That means it’s pretty easy to lose your shirt. It’s no exaggeration to say that you can watch your money vanish like you threw it in the fireplace.

Forex Supernatural

The second reason Forex is hard is that human beings are emotional. We all deal with fear, for example. When you put on a trade with real money, you remember what kind of effort it took you to make that money. You had to sweat for it, probably at a job you detest. So the risk of losing it looms large. And if you’re up on a trade, meaning you have a paper profit, you get a little blinded by the potential for more gain. That probably means you stay in the trade too long and you end up with a loss instead of any profit at all. We all do that. It’s natural.

Well, the guys who create the free video I’m going to point you to have produced a way to trade Forex without a care in the world. It’s actually automatic. I don’t mean it’s a system you follow. I mean it’s software that trades for you. They call it Forex Supernatural. Don’t believe me? Then watch:

Forex Supernatural

Now, that free video gives you just a taste of what you’re going to see. What you really want to do is sign up for the second free video that gives you the cold, hard proof that their software can make you wealthy.I doubt you believe that right now, and that’s GOOD. Don’t be a sucker and fall for any claim out there. Watch their first video, sign up to see the proof, then see if it’s for you. Won’t cost you a penny, and it won’t even take much of your time. But the potential reward is life changing. I won’t reveal exactly what they talk about in the proof video (I’ve seen it already), but imagine this...

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That means you don’t have to babysit anything, and you don’t have to wait months for results. You can live your life, have the cash you want and do it all while your software does all the heavy lifting. Find out all the details here:

Forex Supernatural

Forex Executor

2009-08-26T14:19:00.000+07:00

Learn about Forex Executor just now! Forex Executor can help you get around not only the new NFA regulations but also do lot of more things. As you are likely aware, the NFA regulators have made some major changes to the rules regarding order types that traders can now place. Learn how to help solve this problem and at the same time truly SUPERCHARGE your trades, in a brief video waiting for you here:

Forex Executor

Once you watch it you'll want to register for a very special live webinar being held next Thursday at 1:00pm and 9 PM EST. This solution is genius...It's called Forex Executor Pro, and not only does it work around the new NFA regulations, it has a TON more functionality that will literally transform your MT4 platform in ways you have to see to believe!

Not only does it allow you the ability to place OCO's Stops, and Limit orders, (all held on YOUR PC) it also allows you to execute the following orders as well...

Trailing Stops...That are infinitely more sophisticated and powerful than what Mt4 offers...

Break Even Stop Loss Orders...

Cell phone texting, so you can be alerted any time an order triggers, no matter where you are...

Forex Executor

You don't want to miss this... it's a great tool that will help make your trading more efficient. This is very javascript:void(0)exciting stuff, so go watch the brief video now, and make sure to register and attend the webinar on Thursday, it just may make the difference you've been waiting for.

Forex Executor

Your trading future literally depends on having the ability to place the orders the brokers may be forced to remove at any time, the Executor is THE solution. The price is SHOCKINGLY low, and it may be going up soon, so lock in your seat to ensure the intro pricing, should you be as impressed with the Executor as I am. Have a great trading week!

Forex Executor

U.S Consumer Confidence will determine Today's Trend

2009-08-25T17:13:00.000+07:00

Today's U.S. Consumer Confidence data release is set to dominate the trading between the Dollar and its major currency pairs. A number of other factors are also likely to impact the forex market today, such as the British BBA Mortgage Approvals at 8:30 GMT. The results of today's data are likely to determine the USD's trend going into rest of the week's trading.

USD - The U.S Dollar Strengthens Against Most Rivals

The greenback rebounded versus major currencies Monday, from a string of recent declines after signals at the weekend that most key central banks backed a policy of keeping their Interest Rates low for the foreseeable future.

Analysts continue to anticipate that at some point signs of strength in the U.S. economy will be read as positive for the nation's currency, ending an inverse relationship since the credit crisis began, where negative news triggered safe-haven buying of the U.S Dollar. That relationship still held back the Dollar's gains on Monday.

The USD also advanced yesterday vs. the EUR and Japanese yen as Wall Street surrendered earlier gains and traders repositioned themselves ahead of U.S. consumer and Housing data due this week. Solid U.S. data and an upbeat assessment on the economy from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke over the weekend earlier pushed investors to take on riskier investments at the expense of the low-yielding Yen and Dollar.

EUR - Sterling Pressured; Hits 11 Week Low vs. the EUR

The EUR erased its gains versus the Dollar yesterday as Treasury yields fell and the European Central Bank (ECB) policy makers warned against succumbing to optimism with regard to the economic situation in Europe. The EUR also reversed again versus the Japanese yen after the Euro-Zone industrial orders came in much higher than expected.

But investors are keen to see how the Euro-Zone economy fares, especially after higher-than-forecast purchasing managers' index readings last week. Traders expect Germany's Ifo survey of business sentiment to be the key event for the European currency this week.

The British pound dropped yesterday against 14 of the 16 most-traded counterparts on speculation the Bank of England will depress yields on gilts, making the U.K.'s assets less attractive to foreign investors. The Sterling declined yesterday to an 11-week low versus the EUR as much as 0.6%, the weakest level since June 8th. Analysts have said that the EUR was pushed past a key options barrier at 87 pence, setting up further gains in the pair, while traders said expectations for persistently low UK Interest Rates were weighing on the British currency.

JPY - The Yen Advances as Stocks Extend Losses

The Japanese yen was broadly firmer on Tuesday as investors took a pause from a recent rush to stocks and higher-yielding currencies, with focus shifting to U.S. data later in the day for clues on an uncertain economic recovery. The low yielding Yen tends to gain when stocks and higher-yielding currencies fall or when weak economic data highlights a long and uncertain road for global recovery.

The JPY rose against all of the 16 most-active currencies after Atlanta-based SunTrust Banks Inc., Georgia's biggest lender, said U.S. financial institutions may report more credit losses as commercial real estate falters. Worries are re-emerging that regional and local banks in the U.S. may be facing more loan losses, hence causing risk aversion and buying of the Yen.

Crude Oil - Oil Trades Near 10-Month High on Economic Optimism

Crude Oil prices rose Monday, briefly touching their highest level in 10 months, as optimism about a rebound in the global economy boosted energy prices. The gains came alongside strength on Wall Street, where the stock market also briefly touched 10-month highs before pulling back slightly after a 4 day rally.

Commodities markets have tracked stocks indexes closely in recent months as dealers view equities as a leading indicator of economic performance. Oil dealers said many investors were also using commodities as a hedge against the U.S Dollar, particularly oil, as OPEC producers work to restrain supply.

However, Crude reduced its earlier gains in afternoon trade as U.S. stocks turned lower. With demand remaining weak and supplies standing abundant, the crude market could be ready for a quick and sharp downward movement.

Article Source - U.S Consumer Confidence will determine Today's Trend

Currency Markets Quiet as Obama Says Bernanke to Be Nominated for 2nd Term (Euro Open)

2009-08-25T17:10:00.000+07:00

Currency markets took little notice as US President Barack Obama announced that he will nominate current Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to another term when the central bank chief’s term in office. The final revision of Germany’s second-quarter GDP figures and Switzerland’s Employment figures top the calendar in European hours.

Key Overnight Developments

• New Zealand’s Inflation Outlook Bolsters Case for Interest Rate Cuts
• Euro, British Pound Yield Flat Result as Bears Fail to Keep Momentum
• US President Obama to Nominate Fed Chief Ben Bernanke To 2nd Term

Critical Levels

The Euro tried lower in overnight trading, testing as low as 1.4274, but rebounded just above the 1.43 mark late into the session to yield an effectively flat result ahead of the opening bell in Europe. The British Pound followed a nearly identical dynamic, tipping a low of 1.6383 before running back up to 1.6420, the same place where it started after the close in New York.

Asia Session Highlights

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand released the Inflation Expectation report, revealing that consumer prices are expected to remain below the 2% target level in a year from the third quarter but rebound to 2.3% into the second half of 2011. Although 1-year GDP growth projections turned positive for the first time in six months, wages are set to grow at a record-low 1.7% in the same period and 2.3% in 24 months, the lowest estimate in over a decade. Forecasts of rising unemployment are surely the culprit here: unemployment expectations were revised higher yet again, now calling for the jobless rate to hit 7.2% by September 2010 and 6.7% by the same time in the following year.

As we have previously argued, the likelihood of a low-inflation environment in the near to medium term gives the Reserve Bank of New Zealand scope to lower interest rates. Such a move would help to decouple the local currency from overall trends in risky assets, helping to trim the formidable current account shortfall as well as offer some additional stimulus at a time when the government has cancelled additional fiscal measures amid concerns about the nation’s public debt, both of which recently forced downgrades of new Zealand’s sovereign credit rating by both Fitch and Moody’s.

Currency markets took little notice as US President Barack Obama announced that he will nominate current Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to another term when the central bank chief’s term expires in January. Obama had taken atypically long to make the announcement, causing some market-watchers to suspect he will look to install someone closer to the administration into the key position. On balance, the move points to continuity in US monetary policy for the time being, though little can be reasonably assumed given the extraordinary measures taken by Bernanke and company in recent months to check the fallout from the credit crisis that erupted last year and the global recession that followed.

Euro Session: What to Expect

The final revision of Germany’s second-quarter Gross Domestic Product is expected to confirm that output grew 0.3% in the three months through June, the first positive result after four consecutive quarters of losses. The annual rate of contraction is also expected to be confirmed at -5.9%, the first improvement in the year-on-year metric since the end of 2007. Despite the seemingly positive tone of the headline figure, the comparative picture of German growth is far from favorable. A survey of economists conducted by Bloomberg suggests that the Euro Zone’s largest economy, and by extension the region as a whole, will underperform most industrialized countries at least through the end of next year. The most pronounced differentials are seen against commodity-linked counties (Canada, Australia, and New Zealand) as well as the United States. A slower pace of economic growth will mean that Europe lags behind the curve as central banks begin to raise interest rates at the onset of the global recovery, a prospect that bodes ill for the single currency.

In Switzerland, Employment is expected to have contracted at an annual pace of -0.1% in the three months to June, the first negative reading since the third quarter of 2003. The unemployment rate hit 3.7% in July, the highest in over three years, and official government forecasts suggest that it will top 5% by the end of 2010. Job losses will trim on incomes and discourage consumption, weighing on overall economic growth. Against this background, UBS will release the July edition of its monthly Consumption Indicator, a measure intended to foreshadow spending trends and thereby overall economic growth by approximately 3-4 months. The metric rose for the first time in three months in June, but UBS cautioned that the future environment “remains difficult” with unemployment “likely to increase significantly in the coming months”.

Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Analyst
Article Source - Currency Markets Quiet as Obama Says Bernanke to Be Nominated for 2nd Term (Euro Open)

Forex Analysts

2009-08-25T15:16:00.000+07:00

The retail forex market is booming. People are turning towards forex in droves. A critical lack of market information has led to the rise of a new forex superstar, “The Forex Analyst.” Retail forex brokers are doing a booming business as more and more people enter the retail forex market.

Every forex broker wants you to open an account and start trading forex immediately even if you don’t know how to trade. Don’t know how to trade? Don’t worry; we have the people that can teach you. Can’t tell which way the Euro will go. Don’t worry, we have the experts. Retail forex brokers are hiring and promoting the skills of forex analysts in droves in order to offset their client’s fear of the forex market. Who is a Forex Analyst by the way?

Don’t try to forget the dotcom bubble. Many people had got their fingers burnt in that era. Sadly the investing public seems to not have learned any lessons following the internet boom era IPOs. Forex analysts are master peddlers of excuses and explanation as to what did happen. But a forex analyst will never really tell you what will happen.

The job of a company hired stock analyst is to sell its stocks to the public by painting rosy pictures of the future price appreciation. Just think for a moment. Do you think a company hired analysts will give anything but a strong buy to the company’s stock if a company is going public? A similar conflict of interest arises in the retail forex world now full of forex analysts more than willing to share their views on TV, print or chat rooms.

Forex analysts are almost similar to stock analyst. Their job is to make the clients trade as much as possible. Who are these forex analysts? Are they forex traders? Do they trade their own money? Most of them are not traders. A look at their profile will show you an Ivy League degree full of theoretical knowledge. Is any of this knowledge applicable to day to day forex trading? Of course not!

Forex analysts are supposed to know a lot of meaningless forex jargon and economic figures in support of their views. Trust me they would have started their own fund long time ago if they were smart enough. What is the job requirement of a forex analyst? Look good on the TV and write well.

Forex analyst will always be full of great trading ideas to help you trade more since forex brokers only make money the more you trade as a retail forex trader and the more you lose. What is the exact job of a forex analyst? Like any job in the world, the job of a forex analyst is simple to make money for the forex broker company.

Many traders don’t know this stupid little secret. You will never trade from the advice of your forex broker if you are wise. Some moves just happen in the forex market without any fundamentals or technicals supporting them.

Corporate flows make a mess of the intra day forex market. Most of these corporate flows happen in the intra day market. Most of the moves started by these corporate flows have no fundamental or technical reason behind them. Yet no self respecting forex analyst will be caught without a neat explanation at hand.

Financial experts are not even ready to accept technical analysis as a subject. Yet many traders believe in technical analysis and it does work, I can testify to that. Do you know the theory of random walk? Markets move in a random manner. I would love to host a trading competition between the retail forex analysts and some of the dart throwing monkeys. Monkeys have a higher chance of winning. On whom would you bet?

Will the Dollar's Bearish Trend Continue this Week?

2009-08-24T21:01:00.000+07:00

Last week marked a sharp drop in the Dollar's value, especially against the EUR and the CHF. The biggest question for this week is whether the Dollar will continue to see bearish trends against the major currencies, or reverse. It seems that the upcoming data from the U.S. economy will play a main role in this week's trading, and traders are advised to follow these main publications closely.

USD - Dollar to Go Bearish on Strong Equity Market

The positive homes sales and manufacturing figures from the U.S. last week helped increase risk appetite resulted in the Dollar dropping significantly against the EUR. The bullish equity markets also continued to drive the greenback lower last Friday. The EUR/USD pair was trading as high as the 1.4374 level on Friday, and now trades at 1.4330. The GBP/USD cross began Friday's trading at 1.6442, and now stands at the 1.6535 level. This in itself indicates the very high volatility that the forex market has been going through in recent weeks.

The key meeting in the latter part of last week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is likely to play a key role in USD trading for today and this week. Traders should follow news still flowing from the developments from this meeting that was attended by central bankers and key financial experts. Additionally, forex traders need to pay close attention to economic news that will come out of Britain and the Euro-Zone, as news from these 2 regions will help establish the greenback's dominance against its main currency pairs today.

Looking ahead to this week, there are many economic data releases which will affect the Dollar. This includes CB Consumer Confidence, New Homes Sales, Prelim GDP, and Unemployment Claims. Also, the USD may indeed continue to go bearish if the equity market continues to rise rapidly. This could happen if traders continue to increase their risk appetite. In addition, the Personal Spending and Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment figures at 12:30 and 13:55 GMT on Friday are set to dominate the mind of traders at the conclusion of this trading week.

EUR - EUR Rises on Increased Optimism

The EUR/USD rate reached as high as 1.4374 last week, and it now stands at 1.4330. This has come about as the U.S. economy and other leading global economies, such as Germany and France continue to rise out of the recession. On the other hand, the British economy hasn't been fairing well as of late, as the EUR/GBP rate opened at 0.8608 last Thursday. However, it now stands at 0.8680, which signals a loss in confidence in the GBP since the beginning of Thursday's trading.

Due to the more optimistic patterns that we have seen from Germany, France, Japan and even the U.S., the EUR continues to strengthen as a response. However, Britain is lagging far behind, as she has a fragile banking system, debt is 60% of GDP and the printing of money is out of control. Things are so bleak that even the Governor of the Bank of England (BoE), Mervyn King, has run out of ways to stimulate the British economy. This may explain the GBP's weakness against the EUR and CHF last week.

Leading analysts forecast the possibility of a sell-off of the GBP at the commencement of this week. Nevertheless, this may actually reverse as the week drags on. Today, there is much important economic news coming out of the Euro-Zone, including Industrial New Orders at 9:00 GMT. Furthermore, there is a lot of data coming out of the Euro-Zone during the coming trading week. Thus the EUR is set to be a key currency in the forex market this week.

JPY - Yen to Lead Forex Trading This Week!

Recently, Japan's economy rose out of recession, beating even the best of estimates. Moreover, we saw some bullishness in the previous week for the Yen. For example, the Japanese currency rose heavily vs. the USD. There may be a number of reasons for this. Mixed figures from the U.S. played a role, as pessimistic unemployment figures from the U.S. economy, and increased risk appetite hurt the USD. The USD/JPY cross went was as low as 93.46 last week, and it is currently trading at the 94.60 level.

As there are many important data releases coming out of Japan this week, there is great potential for volatility in the Yen. A number of releases, such as the Trade Balance, Household Spending and Tokyo Core CPI figures are scheduled to be released this week. These releases will help forex traders get a taste of the health that the Japanese economy currently is in. Therefore, it is reasonable to suggest that the Yen will have a crucial role in leading forex trading this week.

Crude Oil - Oil Set to Hit $75 a Barrel?

Oil recorded a good trading week overall, as the commodity now stands at $74.30 a barrel. Crude prices were helped by a number of different factors last week. Improvements in data coming out of the leading global economies did help. A weak Dollar last week also helped push up the price of Crude, as the commodity itself is priced in Dollars. Additionally, the Crude Oil Inventories figures plummeting last week also drove-up the price of Crude.

Last week's behavior contradicted many people's expectations, as they expected Crude Oil to have another bearish trading week. However, last week shows that the black gold still has much support. Trading on Friday saw Crude rise by $1.75, which was probably due to the weak USD. If the U.S. continues to release positive economic news and the USD continues to weaken, we may see Crude prices hit $75 a barrel very soon.

Article Source - Will the Dollar's Bearish Trend Continue this Week?

US Dollar Supported as Stocks Rally, Australian Dollar Options Signal Losses (Euro Open)

2009-08-24T20:51:00.000+07:00

The US Dollar held up in overnight trading despite a sharp rally on Asian stock exchanges. Currency options markets showed traders betting on an end to the Australian Dollar’s four-month rally. June’s Euro Zone Industrial New Orders are on tap ahead.

Key Overnight Developments

• Currency Markets Ignore Rally on Asian Stock Exchanges
• Australian Dollar Options Traders Price in Bearish Reversal

Critical Levels

The Euro kept to a narrow 20-pip range above 1.4330 in overnight trading. The British Pound followed suit, trading sideways above the 1.65 level.

Asia Session Highlights

With no significant economic data on the calendar, currency markets took a muted tone in overnight trading. A strong equities rally failed to translate into meaningful FX volatility: Asian shares rose on last Friday’s US Existing Home Sales and optimistic comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, both of which have already been priced into exchange rates.

Currency options markets showed the Australian Dollar rally that began in early March may be running out of steam. Options to sell the Aussie next month rose to cost 2.32% more than to buy the currency at current rates, showing traders were willing to be the biggest premium to protect against a drop in the Australian unit since mid-February. Technical positioning is supportive of a bearish scenario.

Euro Session: What to Expect

The economic calendar is decidedly bare in European hours, with June’s Euro Zone Industrial New Orders report the only item on the docket. Expectations call for orders to rise 1.6%, the largest monthly increase in 17 months. Manufacturing figures across most key markets have shown signs of improvement in recent months on the back of aggressive government stimulus measures (often focused on infrastructure projects) and widespread inventory restocking efforts. Still, the long-term trend in orders is far from encouraging: the annualized rate of decline is set to print at -28.6%, a reading well within the range of values noted since the beginning of the year. A meaningful, sustained return to growth will require the re-emergence of private demand in the Euro Zone’s key export markets, an outcome that seems unlikely considering nearly all of them (excluding Russia) are expected to see unemployment rise at least through 2010, trimming incomes and discouraging spending.

Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Analyst
Article Source - US Dollar Supported as Stocks Rally, Australian Dollar Options Signal Losses (Euro Open)

Trading Out A Losing Position

2009-08-24T15:31:00.000+07:00

How long have you been trading forex? Maybe some months! Maybe one year! There may come a point in your trading career when you find yourself in a trade that is deep underwater. If you continue with the trade you may get your account wiped out. One of the most important lessons any forex trader needs to learn is how to get out of a losing position. This type of a situation may develop very soon in your trading career.

What we are talking about is a run away position that has the potential of wiping out the equity in your account. Can this type of a situation develop? Let’s suppose that there is a run away trade confronting you. Although in my opinion if you follow proper money management rules, this type of situation should never arise. What can a trader do when he/she is faced with such a run away trade? Most traders have two choices when holding onto a big loser.

1) Cut the position immediately and avoid a huge loss.
2) Try to average down and hope for a turn around in your favor.

You should accept a big monetary hit in first instance. You should place all your chips on the table and hope for the best in the second instance. Neither approach is attractive. Good news for you. There is a third way those great traders always use.

Great traders slowly begin to trade their way out of a losing position once they realize that the market has proven them wrong. Great traders simply refuse to take an outright loss by way of a stop.

Without adding to the position once you realize that you have a losing position that you need to get out, your mission should be to better your average cost. Adding to the position will only create more pain and sorrow for you.

You need to cut part of it to create a more breathing room for yourself. After that you should be able to trade out of the rest. Adding to a losing position can also quickly take away your flexibility as the loss grows and becomes unmanageable.

How can this happen? I mean how can such a situation develop? Let’s suppose that you had gone short in a downtrend. After sometime the trend suddenly reversed and turned into an uptrend. Now you are in a losing position because the trend has reversed. You have three choices with you. Read all the three carefully as this situation may indeed one day confront you.

1) Hold onto the losing position and hope that the trend will again reverse itself before you receive your margin call.
2) Get out of everything and take a substantial loss.
3) Cut part of the position on any reasonable dip.

What is a dip? It is when the market consolidates after an uptrend or a downtrend. What are the benefits of cutting your position on a dip? There are two benefits of cutting your position on a dip. Firstly, you are in fact freeing up liquidity to react to future price moves although you are going to take an initial loss. Any move now is a good move.

This simple step can now help you by reloading at better selling levels to improve your average cost if the currency pair bounces higher. On the other hand, if it immediately collapses then great, it is moving in your direction.

Loss is always painful. Seeing an unrealized loss is stressful. It might compel you to take hasty trading decisions. One of the most stressful aspects of trading is the psychological impact a running loss may have on your trading. The other great aspect of cutting part of your position is that you instantly take some of the stress away. Faced with a big loss, most traders are keen to take a needless hit and stop the pain immediately.

How do you deal with a run away trade? Let’s take a run away trade example. Suppose you trade EUR/USD pair. You are quite conversant with EUR/USD fundamentals and technicals. Suppose you believe that the currency pair EUR/USD is overbought and is near the top. You believe the rate may fail near the resistance level 1.2453. You take an initial short at 1.2433.

You are looking for a swing trade back to the support level 1.1983. This will give you a 450 pip profit when you close your position on reaching this support level. Your plan is to scale into the position. This is your first shot. You want to stay flexible.

You have done the scenario planning. You expect that the maximum the EUR/USD rate would go is up to 1.2583. You place a 150 pips stop loss at 1.2583. This gives you a risk/reward ratio of (150/450=) 1/3. This risk/reward ratio is really good.

You are prepared for a initial EUR/USD pair rally up to 150 pips. However, EUR/USD rallies taking out stops to print a new high of 1.2490 on reaching 1.2453 resistance level. You are not surprised. You knew it could happen so you had placed your initial stop loss at 150 pips.

You have planned two more lots. This is the point you enter the second lot into the market by going short. You take advantage of the higher levels to place your second short at 1.2493. You replace the stop loss of 150 pips with two stop losses of 75 pips each (150/2). Now you are two short at an average cost of 1.2493+1.2433= 1.2463.

All the time you are expecting the trend to reverse itself. When trend reaches the level 1.2383 (70 pips below the initial resistance level of 1.2453), you plan to place a third short since that will be an indication that the momentum is picking up steam to the downside. The EUR/USD pair begins to sink. You are happy.

The EUR/USD pair does not break that level. It rebounds at 1.2463 and is soon testing the highs again. You are unfortunate again. During this rebound you can choose either to cut the trade at cost or stick with it. You could have closed your position at 1.2463 taking a loss of 30 pips on your first short and a profit of 30 pips on the second short to end up with a zero loss.

You could have used the rebound to get out of the trade with zero loss. You did not close your positions instead you had decided to let the rate go up with a belief that the pair will rebound after going beyond 1.2500 level. The rebound does not take place and the rate continues to go up and reaches the 1.2470.

You have one more lot with you to trade. You decide to throw all your cards by going short again at 1.2473 as still you are expecting a rebound around 1.2503. Now you are short 3 lots average 1.2503+1.2493+1.2433= 1.2466.

A strong uptrend has developed. The pair EUR/USD continues to go high. It reaches 1.2480. You again reduce your stops to 50 pips each for the three lots (150/3=50). Now you make a strange decision against all your training as a forex trader. You decide to disregard all the money management rules and remove the stop with the belief that this high rate for the pair EUR/USD is unsustainable. The pair is overbought and it will reverse soon. You are very sure of the fundamentals and the technicals. This will give you the time to cut your position when it does.

Never ever fool yourself by thinking that the market will do exactly what you want it to do. Whenever the market is faced with something it can’t do. It proceeds to do exactly that. Trying to out think the market is never a bright idea. This is because the traders just like you who have been caught on the wrong side of the market are all sitting on the same trade and are vulnerable.

The equity in your account is in danger of getting wiped out. This simple trade is now looking like it may very well take a large chunk out of your account. The EUR/USD rate reaches 1.2550. You are in trouble now with an unrealized loss of 107+57+47=211 pips. 211 pips mean a straight loss of $2,110.

Some trades try to play martingale at this stage. Stubborn traders may be tempted to double up and bet on a decline. The stress level increases. You are tempted to simply stop the pain, get rid of it all and regroup. Now to simply get out will be your second wrong decision.

The pair EUR/USD is in a strong uptrend. It is set on going beyond 1.2550 level. The pair EUR/USD does not want to reverse any longer. Pride has no place in forex trading. The market proved you wrong and you need to move forward.

Do you know this fact that currency rates have a tendency to make a move, consolidate then continue? The one thing that can save you during this bad time is that currency rates do not move straight up or down. This stair case pattern is evident in most financial instruments. It simply indicates the accumulation/distribution stages of a move. The prices rises or falls then tries to consolidate before it rises or falls again.

These consolidation periods can be your savior. You should consider these consolidation periods as your window of opportunity. Longs may take some profits and the shorts may get stopped out and both need time to set new positions.

Wait for a dip to develop. It will definitely develop as the price cannot continue to rise forever. It has to consolidate at some level. That level can never be very far away. You look for a dip and a consolidation period to free up part of your position. You get rid of one lot at 1.2553 taking a realized loss of 107 pips. Taking a loss hurts but we have now given ourselves more flexibility and more margin. Now you have two lots short.

Range is when the market is consolidating. A range develops when both the support and resistance are horizontal. You wait for a range to develop. This soon takes place as a rough 100 pips range develops and trades for several days. You realize that a range has developed. You actively start to trade it with the third lot that you had freed from the trade.

You can cut your losses by trading the range that inevitably develops after each uptrend or a downtrend. This technique proves effective. You are nimble enough with intra day trades to quickly pocket a good amount of pips to offset some of the loss that you have taken by removing all the stop losses.

This way you can reduce your loss. The currency prices can never go up and up. It will at one point pause and try to consolidate. You have taken advantage of this fact. Lesson is to reduce your total exposure and try to manage it instead! Remember these simple steps to get out of a losing trade:

1) Unload part of your position on a dip.
2) Wait for a consolidation to take place and a range to form.
3) Trade the range with multiple quick ins and outs.
4) Minimize your losses and get out. Don’t try to convert your losers into winners.

But sometimes it is always good cut and run. You be the judge of your decisions.

MetaTrader 4 Plugins You Must Have

2009-08-24T05:36:00.000+07:00

You need new MetaTrader 4 plugins for your MetaTrader 4 platform if you want to continue forex trading after the new NFA regulations. If you haven't heard the buzz, you aren't aware of what's going in the Forex industry... and you darn well should be. As of August first, the NFA has implemented new regulations, limiting the kinds of trades FX traders can put on. Brokers are no longer allowed to accept OCO orders, (one cancels the other, used when bracketing the market for breakouts) or Limit orders. (These are the ESSENTIAL Target and Stop orders all traders use.)

MetaTrader 4 Plugins

Some brokers have simply removed these orders all together, others have created a temporary patchy work around, and others still have sent ALL of their clients overseas! (not a good idea by any stretch) All this has most traders running scared, and totally unsure how to proceed, and this new ruling effects EVERYONE! As you are likely aware, the NFA has made some major changes to the regulations regarding order types that traders can now place. Brokers are NO LONGER allowed to accept:

-OCO orders, (one cancels the other, used when bracketing the market for breakouts)

-Stop Loss Orders (To Limit Your Losses or Risk in a given Trade) - GONE

-Limit Orders (To Exit You Out Of Your Position When Your Target Is Hit) – GONE

Some brokers have simply removed these orders all together, others have created a temporary patchy work around (which can come crashing down on a MOMENTS notice), and others still have sent ALL of their clients overseas! (not a good idea by any stretch). Learn how to solve this problem and at the same time truly SUPERCHARGE your trades, in a brief video waiting for you here:

MetaTrader 4 Plugins

Once you watch it you'll want to register for a very special live webinar being held next Thursday at 1:00pm and 9 PM EST.

MetaTrader 4 Plugins

The recent changes have many traders running scared, but the solution is genius...It's called Forex Executor Pro, and not only does it get around the new NFA rulings, it has a TON more functionality that will literally transform your MetaTrader 4 platform in ways you have to see to believe! The executor will give you an unfair advantage over all other traders, and even the brokers themselves.

Not only does it allow you place OCO's Stops, and Limits orders, (all held on YOUR PC, not with the broker) it also allows you to execute the following orders as well...

Trailing Stops...That are infinitely more sophisticated and powerful that what MetaTrader 4 offers...

Break Even Stop Loss Orders (WAY cool, and need to be seen by any serious trader)...

Cell phone texting, so you can be alerted any time an order triggers, no matter where you are...

PLUS, ALL of your orders are actually COMPLETELY HIDDEN from the brokers as well, which completely eliminating stop hunting as the brokers simply can't take our your stops, when they can't see them!

MetaTrader 4 Plugins

You don't want to miss this... it's one neat plugin that will make you trading far more efficient. This is very exciting stuff, so go watch the brief video now, and make sure to register and attend the webinar on Thursday, it just may make the difference you've been waiting for.

MetaTrader 4 Plugins

Your trading future literally depends on having the ability to place the orders the brokers may be forced to remove at any time, the Executor is THE solution. The price is SHOCKINGLY low, and it may be going up soon, so lock in your seat to ensure the intro pricing, should you be as impressed with the Executor as I am.

MetaTrader 4 Plugins

Forex Weekly Trading Forecast - 08.24.09

2009-08-23T15:48:00.000+07:00

US Dollar Faces Another Plunge, How Will Fundamentals Shape Things?

Fundamental Outlook for US Dollar: Bullish

- Existing home sales see a record increase in July thanks to deflated prices through foreclosures, inventories
- Fed Chairman Bernanke offers a cautiously optimistic outlook among his peers at Jackson Hole
- Will the dollar topple or has resistance set the stage for a true reversal?

The US dollar ended this past week in a precarious position. After four consecutive days of selling pressure (the currency’s worst trend since the end of May), the greenback once again finds itself within arm’s reach of its yearly lows. The market has flirted with renewing the dollar’s bear trend for nearly two months now. It is only a matter of time and speculation before the world’s reserve currency finds direction once again – especially as the global recovery gathers traction and the scales between risk and reward tilt towards higher returns. In determining what may be the ultimate catalyst for a renewed trend, we have to determine what traders are more concerned about: risk appetite or growth potential. Investor sentiment is notoriously difficult to gauge as it is notoriously fickle and often sparked by innocuous factors that quickly snowball through speculation. However, there is a good chance that, in the end, both paths may lead back to growth.

Through the worst of the financial crisis, the US dollar garnered a clear distinction as a safe haven through its reserve status and the liquidity of the government debt that backed it. Whether this title still fits or not, the dollar’s flight-to-safety quality continues to drag it down while equities, commodities and other popular ‘risky’ asset classes rally. In the short-term, this designation may in fact benefit the currency. While we have seen investor sentiment steadily rise over the months, with the S&P 500 just recently hit new highs for the year; there are signs that optimism is flagging. Taking a look at the volume data that accompanies the steady trend in equities, there is a clearly diminishing trend in conviction behind this move. Considering the risks just beneath the surface of this speculatively-fueled recovery, it is no surprise that doubt is developing. Since the worst of the financial crisis depressed investment levels to oversold conditions, we have seen a natural rebound turn into an impromptu bull trend on the foundation that the global economy is returning to growth. However, the early signs of recovery that market participants have attached themselves to are merely evidence that the recession is easing and stability is returning. Policy officials and economists have unanimously warned that expansion through the next year will stagnate; but speculation has built off of its own momentum. Eventually, these divergent assessments have to realign - and it isn’t the nature of growth projections to suddenly change. However, with statistics like rising unemployment, strained credit availability and the US already facing the most bank failures in a year since 1992 (through August nonetheless); there are plenty of catalysts to spark a wave of fear.

Looking outside of the simple measure of the appetite for and aversion to risk, we also have to consider the dollar’s relationship to this fundamental qualifier. The currency has been labeled a safe haven partly as a holdover from the panic-stage of the crisis through the end of 2008 and partly due to its loose monetary policy approach in the face of what some market participants consider a clear recovery (a situation which would likely suppress growth and yields). However, if indeed the global recovery will stagnate through the near-term, maintaining its fiscal stimulus, guarantees and bailout loans may actually encourage a faster return to sustainable growth. In the days ahead, the market will find a better sense of the United State’s standing in the race to recovery. Second readings of German, UK and US 2Q GDP numbers will provide important updates on the component data behind the headline readings. Consumer spending, capital investment and exports will be critical in evaluating the pace of recovery beyond the three months ending in June. Among the other notable economic listings on the docket, consumer confidence, personal income and spending figures will measure the health of an economic group that accounts for approximately 70 percent of GDP. Another notable contribution could be made housing. This past week, existing home sales marked their biggest jump on record, but due to a sharp drop in prices due to foreclosures and at the consequence of rising inventories. A genuine recovery in this vital source of wealth and employment depends on credit and consumer health.

Euro Could Hit Fresh 2009 Highs If Data Signals End of EZ Recession

Fundamental Forecast for Euro: Bullish

- German investor sentiment jumped to the highest level in over 3 years
- German producer prices plunged 7.8% in July from a year ago, the sharpest drop since records began in 1949
- German services, French manufacturing PMI breached 50 in August, signaling growth for first time in 12+ months

The euro staged an impressive rebound against the US dollar from 1.4050 last week, closing Friday just below resistance at 1.4350. The appreciation was the result of a variety of factors, including broad US dollar weakness, but also from fundamental forces. Indeed, German services PMI surged to a 16-month high of 54.1 in August while French manufacturing PMI hit a 15-month high of 50.2, signaling an expansion in activity after growth had contracted for more than a year. Together, these helped push the Euro-zone composite PMI, which encompasses both manufacturing and services, up to a 14-month high of 50 from 47.0. Now, 50 is the point of neutrality for these indices, so the data suggests that business activity in the Euro-zone registered no change during August, but put into perspective with the record lows seen in the first quarter, the news is positive. The data was timely when also considering Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s comments from the Jackson Hole Symposium – a meeting of the world’s central bankers and finance ministers – as he said we are "beginning to emerge" from a deep global recession. Given strong PMI reports, it looks like the Euro-zone could be helping lead the way.

That said, upcoming economic reports may exacerbate this optimistic sentiment or derail it. On Wednesday, the German IFO survey of business confidence. Like the latest ZEW survey, the results are anticipated to reflect a surge in confidence, with the index estimated to creep up to a 10-month high of 89.0 in August from 87.3. On Thursday, the German GfK survey of consumer confidence is projected to rise to a more than 1-year high of 3.6 in September from 3.5 and on Friday, Euro-zone economic confidence is anticipated to increase to a 10-month high of 78.0 in August from 76.0. Overall, a steady stream of positive news could be the impetus to drive EURUSD to fresh 2009 highs. That said, such a move would also require a broad increase in risk appetite, as the US dollar is still treated as a safe haven asset.

Japanese Yen Forecast Bullish but Price Action Depends on S&P 500

Fundamental Forecast for Japanese Yen: Neutral

- Japanese Yen forecast to rally further versus US Dollar, British Pound
- Japanese Yen may gain as China tightens banking rules
- Yen nonetheless under pressure as S&P 500 rallies further

The Japanese Yen finished the week near fresh monthly highs against the downtrodden US Dollar, but sharp rallies in the US S&P 500 and other risk sentiment barometers doomed the currency to losses against virtually all other counterparts. An earlier-week tumble in equities gave hope that the JPY would forced a sustained turnaround against the majors—yet markets clearly had other things in mind. We have found ourselves on the wrong side of the ‘risk’ trade for quite some time now. Indeed, our calls for Japanese Yen reversals on clear sentiment extremes have proven premature at best. A continued build in JPY-short positions nonetheless suggests that the Yen could rally sharply on episodes of financial market duress. Yet fresh 2009 highs in the US S&P 500 clearly gives us reason for pause for our JPY-bullish outlook, and it will be critical to watch the trajectory of financial market risk sentiment.

An ostensibly busy week of Japanese economic event risk is relatively unlikely to force major moves in JPY pairs; instead, we will continue to watch the Nikkei 225 and S&P 500 for cues on short-term direction. Markets have proven largely immune to Japanese economic developments, and we have little reason to believe that the coming week will force any noteworthy shifts in this dynamic. Of course, any especially large surprises out of Trade Balance, Jobless Rate, or Household Spending results could cause short-term volatility in domestic stock indices—likely forcing commensurate moves in the JPY. Japan’s economy remains heavily reliant on export industries, and disappointing trade numbers could affect economic confidence. Jobless Rate and Household Spending numbers are perhaps less likely to force major volatility in domestic assets, but we should nonetheless keep an eye out for noteworthy developments.

The Japanese Yen remains at the whims of global market risk sentiment, and short-term moves will continue to depend on the trajectory of the S&P 500 and other risk barometers. The index’s meteoric rise to fresh 2009 peaks suggests that risks remain to the downside for the safe-haven Yen, but as we know quite well, market dynamics can change in an instant. Japanese Yen sentiment remains at bearish extremes, and we favor medium-term strength (USDJPY weakness). Yet the timing of the reversal will clearly depend on the influence of broader financial market flows.

British Pound Outlook Hinges on Trends in Risky Assets

Fundamental Forecast for British Pound: Bearish

- Consumer Prices Unexpectedly Unchanged in July
- British Pound Takes a Hit After Bank of England Minutes
- UK Budget Deficit Soars by 8 Billion Pounds, Much More Than Expected

The British Pound is likely to look past much of the economic calendar to fall in with trends in risk sentiment as the primary driver of directional momentum once again in the week ahead. A trade weighted average of sterling’s value is now 88.1% correlated with the MSCI World Stock Index and 90.3% correlated with the Bloomberg/UBS CMCI Commodity Price Index, suggesting the currency trades largely in tandem with the broad direction of risky assets. Judging the near-term direction of risk sentiment has been a tricky endeavor in recent weeks: an increasing number of voices have started to qualify the rally that began in March as “overdone” given the fragile economic environment, but the bears are clearly still too few to form a dominant enough majority to meaningfully overtake momentum; the resulting tug of war has been superimposed on a backdrop of low summertime liquidity, producing a great deal of volatility with seemly little follow-through. The long-term picture seems to offer more clarity, however: global equities are trading at the highest levels relative to earnings since 2003, which seems more than a little overdone considering the kind of revenue potential that is to be expected in a year when the global economy is set to shrink for the first time in the postwar period; the demand for commodities also looks fragile, with the bulls’ stand-by story of steady Chinese growth challenged (at least for the time being) as the East Asian giant prepares to tighten credit access. On balance, this points to a bearish medium-term bias for risky assets and hints that a reversal of the recent rally will invariably bring the British Pound along for the ride.

Turning the economic calendar, a second revision of the second-quarter Gross Domestic Product figure headlines the docket of scheduled UK event risk. Expectations call for a validation of the originally reported 0.8% decline, bringing the annual growth rate to -5.6%, the worst in at least 53 years. Barring an unexpected, meaningful revision in the headline figure or any of the components, the outcome seems likely to be priced into the exchange rate already and is unlikely to cause much of a stir in currency markets. The releases of Augusts’ US Consumer Confidence, July’s Durable Goods Orders, and second quarter GDP figures will also be notable given their potency to drive overall market sentiment. Indeed, traders look to US economic data as a proxy for that of the world at large, expecting a rebound in the leading consumer market to yield positive spillover elsewhere. To that effect, these releases will likely prove market-moving across equity and commodity markets and thereby pull the sterling along as well.

Written by John Kicklighter, David Rodriguez, Terri Belkas, Ilya Spivak, John Rivera and David Song, Currency Analysts
Article Source - Forex Weekly Trading Forecast - 08.24.09

ETF Webinar

2009-08-22T20:10:00.000+07:00

Wow! I just finished watching the ETF webinar I told you about the other day from my friend who used to manage trades over 50 million. And, I’ve got to say, that in all my years in the trading business, this is the most content rich webinar I have ever seen. No hype, only hard core trading truths that not everyone is going to like.

ETF Webinar

What shocked me most is when he PROVED his system works on anything that produces a chart, including forex! Just his advanced position sizing tip alone can double the returns of ANY forex system. Some of the other content was the fact that he and his hedge fund buddies used to hunt stops.

Now he’s teaching “civilians” how to make money off their tactics. If you are new to trading, this hour could save you thousands of dollars over the school of hard knocks. Those who don’t get information like this risk having their whole investment account being wiped out, before they’ve really had a chance to trade. Don’t miss out - Click here to register for this free ETF and Money Management Webinar that you can access right now

ETF Webinar

For trading veterans I can guarantee you that the advanced position sizing tip is a golden nugget you’ll use for increasing profits and decreasing risks in the years to come. This one tip could double your profits regardless of what your entry system is. The one tip alone can turn any average system into a winning system. In the webinar he covers:

- How to maximize your winners while risking only 1-2% per trade.

- Why most traders have it backwards when it comes to risk.

- How to eliminate 95% of trading stress and emotion.

- Why most traders have it backwards when it comes to winning percentages.

- One of his four proprietary profit target strategies.
He’ll just give you this valuable tip for listening in Wednesday.

- How to avoid being vague with your entries and stops, like those “gurus”
who say,"Buy a few cents, ticks, or pips above ___."

- A little known, no cost, scanner tool that can help you improve your trades, now.

- A complementary excel sheet that does ALL the math for you.You’ll be able to
easily see the optimal position size and risk vs. reward ratio on all your trades.

- Even how to become a professional money manager and
raise millions, if you so desire.

That last one really surprised me. Because I know that if you really want to make millions in trading the fastest way is to use leverage with other peoples’ money, when you are ready. One of my friend’s former students John Vasquez now trades over $8 million. He also runs the day trading room. Wouldn’t you agree that if you wanted to learn how to trade big money it would be smart to learn from people who have or are currently doing it?

ETF Webinar

There are so many reasons to attend this free webinar that I honestly believe you’re missing the boat if you don’t take advantage of this opportunity. I guarantee it won’t be a waste of your time. I love sharing high quality content with my readers and this is going to be one of the best. Over 900 people attended the live webinar on Wednesday night and 99.6% said that they learned something new that they could use immediately.

ETF Webinar

Our host has worked trades as large as $50 million during his money management career. He will share a little of his story, but most of the hour will be spent teaching you how to improve your trading.Only the next 21 people get their second live day trading mentorship regularly sold for $1,997. On Sunday night at midnight EST he will no longer be accepting new students for his one year mentorship class for a good portion of the rest of the year. Click here to register for the ETF and Advanced Money Management Seminar:

ETF Webinar

Good Trading,
Jason Fielder

Elliott Waves

2009-08-22T18:20:00.000+07:00

Traders talk of Elliott Waves. So what are Elliott waves? R.N Elliott is famous for discovering the Elliott Wave Principle. This is what R.N. Elliott said, “Practically all developments which result from (human) social-economic processes follow a law that causes them to repeat themselves in similar and constantly recurring serials of waves or impulses of definite number and pattern.”

Elliott Waves International Free Newsletter

R.N Elliott discerned various types of wave patterns and labeled them. Elliott wave analysis tries to separate the price action into a number of waves that give valuable information about the duration of the trend. R.N Elliott discovered that there are basically two types of wave patterns. 1) Impulse waves. An impulse wave consists of five smaller waves. Impulse waves are waves that move in the same direction of the main trend of the market.

So what is an impulse wave? An impulse wave is a wave that moves in the direction of the market trend and subdivides into 5 smaller waves. Waves, 1, 3 and 5 move in the direction of the market main trend. Waves 2 and 4 move against the market main trend! They are called corrective waves.

Elliott Waves International Free Newsletter

2) Corrective waves. The second type of waves is known as corrective waves. Corrective waves consist of two smaller waves. Waves that move counter to the direction of the market trend are known as the corrective waves. Waves therefore can be analyzed in times periods ranging from a matter of minutes to days to months and years.

Elliott Waves International Free Newsletter

So what are these waves 1,2,3,4 and 5? Wave 3 is usually the longest and the strongest wave. In wave 1, the currency pair makes its initial upward move. In wave 2 the currency pair is considered overvalued.

Many traders fail to count the waves when doing Elliott wave analysis. The most difficult part of Elliott wave analysis is correctly labeling and counting the waves. Elliott discovered that each wave whether impulse or corrective subdivides into smaller waves or is part of a larger wave.

You should have by now understood that wave counting is quite subjective. It usually results in as many forecasts as there are Elliott wave forecasters. An incorrect wave count however, will give a wrong forecast. A correct counting of the waves can help the analyst to achieve amazing accuracy in forecasting the market.

Is Elliott wave analysis useful? There are many traders who believe in the Elliott wave principle while there are others who don’t. Some people say that Elliott wave analysis is useful only in hindsight meaning it is not useful in predicting the future course of the market. However, majority of people who have used Elliott wave analysis strongly disagree with this proposition.

Elliott Waves International Free Newsletter

As a trader you should understand what does Elliott wave principle means because you will come across this term in lot of places even if you don’t want to believe in this principle. An understanding of Elliott waves still have value because it brings to the investor a strong historical perspective even if you are not interested in Elliot wave analysis as a trading technique for short term profits.

The law of markets and the law of gravitation are almost similar. Anything that goes up must come down. The same thing applies in the markets. Markets that go up eventually do come down. Markets never go in one direction. The sheer power of the Elliott wave analysis as a forecasting tool creates a great deal of confusion and worry about the market.

Elliott Waves International Free Newsletter

Some people strongly believe in market timing. There are people who say that market timing is the trading method of the 21st century. It is up to you to make a decision whether market timing should be of consideration when you make your own investment decisions. The followers of the Elliott Wave analysis believe that market timing is of critical importance in investment decisions.

Elliott Waves International Free Newsletter

Range Trading

2009-08-22T18:09:00.000+07:00

Range trading is one way to trade the currency market when there is no trending movement in the market. There are times that might last for prolonged periods when the markets are not in any major trend and are only moving sideways swinging between two extremes. But first let’s define what these terms mean. So what is a range? Generally a range is a type of price action bounded on the top by a resistance level and on the bottom by a support level. Some would characterize the price action during a range as sideways or horizontal. Ranges are periods when the markets move up and down without any clear directional trend.

So when the market is in a range, the price action is swinging between two almost horizontal lines. Range trading simply involves identifying and profiting upon the turns within the horizontal trading range. It is between these support and resistance levels that the range trading opportunities lies.

In trend trading, once you have identified a trend forming in the market, you try to enter it as early as possible and ride it as long as it lasts to maximize your pips. Range traders do not let their profits run the way the trend traders do. These turns are also considered swings so the techniques of range trading are often an important component of swing trading strategies.

Since a range is usually bound by two extremes, traders especially those that trade trends consider range trading to be much lower profitability method. The primary reason is that the upside in range trading is necessarily capped at the other side of the range. So when you do range trading, you have to be clear that the profit potential in range trading is limited unlike trend trading.

For example, a 20 pip range that forms on the GBP/USD pair during the Asian Session is not really worth range trading. To tell you the truth most of the time, the market is in a consolidation mode or ranging mode. It is only moving sideways. If you are a trader who makes a living from trading than what to do during such times when the market is not trending and only ranging. Of course learn range trading. Range traders can overcome the dilemma of lower profitability and increase their potential upside by setting a minimum threshold in terms of the height of the ranges they are willing to trade.

20 pips potential profit is not sufficient to justify the risk of range trading in simple terms. The height of this range is too small to make it worthwhile as a range trading opportunity. But this may be the best time for scalping. 3-5 pips gain per trade can be easily made in such a range. However, a 300 pip range can definitely offer an abundance of good potential range trading opportunities.

A profit target on the other side of the range would offer a higher probability trade from a risk/reward perspective if the stop losses are always placed just beyond the support or resistance level from which a range is bounded. Therefore a prudent range trading criterion should include some minimum height of the range.

So the important characteristics of a range is being bounded by two horizontal lines on upside as well as the downside. Once the height of the range is established by at least two approximate touches of both the support and the resistance preparation for range trading should begin. Most range traders will use the common horizontal lines on their charts as the support and resistance for the range.

Bollinger bands are used to measure the volatility in the market. The more volatile the market the more apart the two bands will be. Bollinger bands can be very helpful in trading ranges that do not have strictly defined upper and lower bounds. You can use the dynamic bands like the Bollinger bands to outline these levels.

There is always a simple moving average (SMA) that runs through the center of the two Bollinger bands. You should be careful with the slope of the simple moving average (SMA) running through the middle of the band to ensure that it is flat or near flat when using the Bollinger bands to define a range. Only then you can be confident that a horizontal range is indeed in place.

Range trading involves identifying the points when the price action turns and reverses direction between the two horizontal lines. Go short at the resistance level when the buying pressure loses momentum. Go long at the support level when the selling pressure is overcome by the buying pressure. You can simply use common oscillators like the Stochastics or RSI (Relative Strength Indicator) to help identify potential turns at or near support or resistance when you have established a range.

You must have heard the terminology of the stochastic indicator being overbought or oversold. The Stochastic indicator measures the position of the currency pair compared with its most recent trading range. A Stochastic indicator identifies swing, tops and bottoms.

The closing price tends to be closer to the extreme highs of the currency pair as the currency pair price rises. So what does a stochastic indicator does? Specifically a stochastic indicator measures the closing price of the currency price and it’s high or low during a specific number of days or weeks.

The stochastic indicator is considered to be a highly accurate method of picking the tops and bottoms. The Stochastic indicator points our overbought or oversold conditions. Similarly, the closing price tends to fall on average closer and closer to the extreme lows when the price falls.

Now let’s discuss briefly what does the Relative Strength Indicator does? The Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) is designed to indicate the market’s current strength or weakness depending on where the price closes during a given period. The RSI is plotted on a 0-100 scale.

You should know this fact that the buy and sell signal levels will vary depending on the length you choose for the RSI calculation. Try different lengths to figure out what works best. However, a buy signal is usually generated when the RSI moves up through the lower band usually at 30. Similarly a sell signal is usually generated when the RSI moves down through the upper band usually at 70.

Practice with the RSI on your demo account for sometime to become familiar with its use. Most prices seem to change direction at 30 and 70. However, note that this is not a hard and fast rule. A shorter length time frame will result in the RSI being more volatile. A longer length time frame results in a less volatile RSI.

So range trading involves using indicators to generate the buy and sell signals. How do you know when to buy and when to sell in range trading? The most common method of reading these oscillators is to identify the point at which they cross the line exiting overbought or oversold which signals a possible turn in the direction of price action.

It is always good to seek confirmation of a trading signal by using another indicator. Another turn confirmation can be found at the break of an intra range trendline beside oscillators. It is still a valuable confirmation that the turn in the range has indeed occurred although using a trendline break confirmation can result into a late trade entry.

So most of the time the currency market is not trending! Range trading can be an effective method of trading when the forex market is not trending. A tighter stop loss can then be placed on the other side of the trendline break as opposed to the other side of the range support or resistance.

The best is riding the trend as long as it lasts. But as said, most of the time there will be no clear trend in the currency market. The traders can take benefit of the range trading methods during the time the forex market is bouncing back and forth between horizontal resistance and support. Range trading the bounces can be an effective trading method under these non trending market conditions if the established range has sufficient height.

USD to Go Volatile on U.S. Homes Sales and Bernanke Speech

2009-08-21T23:28:00.000+07:00

The U.S. Dollar is expected to go volatile today on U.S. Homes Sales data and the speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke at 14:00 GMT. Bernanke is expected to discuss the economic crisis and recovery. With regards to the home sales data, the figure is expected to rise to 5.03 million, up from the previous figure of 4.89 million. Forex traders should follow both of these events closely as they are set to determine the USD's main crosses for Friday's trading.

USD - Positive Economic Data Weighs in on Dollar

The Dollar declined versus most major counterparts throughout much of yesterday's trading on Thursday as U.S. equity markets rallied amid better-than-forecast data. Weighing further on the USD, the Philadelphia Fed reported that manufacturing in the region unexpectedly expanded this month for the first time in almost a year, a sign the U.S. economy is recovering. Furthermore, the Conference Board said the index of leading economic indicators rose 0.6% in July, its fourth consecutive monthly gain. The Dollar index traded at 78.331, down slightly from 78.485.

The Dollar may continue its decline today as the release of today's economic data may show sales of U.S. existing homes gained 2.1% last month, the highest since September 2008. An improvement in the U.S. housing market will further support risk appetite since the housing market crash was at the root of the current crisis.

Along with the Existing Home Sales report that will be released today at 14:00 GMT, traders should also follow Ben Bernanke's testimony, set to begin at 14:00 GMT as well, as it tends to cause great market volatility and may intensify the current bearish sentiment on the Dollar.

EUR - EUR Extends Gains as Equities Continue to Rebound

The EUR extended its gains against the British Pound ahead of a report today that is forecasted to show Europe's manufacturing and service industries contracted at a slower pace this month, adding to signs that the global recession is coming to an end.

The EUR traded at $1.4250 early this morning, from $1.4254 yesterday, and at 133.99 Yen from 134.26 Yen. Encouraging risk appetite further were recoveries in global equity markets, boosting demand for higher yielding currencies and commodities at the expense of the USD and JPY.

The French, German and Euro-Zone Manufacturing and Service data is expected to be released at 7:00 GMT, 7:30 GMT and 8:00 GMT respectively. With the recent recoveries in German and French GDPs, this data should provide an insight as to the sustainability of this recovery, and therefore have a major affect on the direction of the European currency.

JPY - Yen Boosted By a Drop in Asian Stocks

The JPY appreciated against the Dollar and Euro in today's early trading as Asian stocks dropped, boosting demand for Japan's currency as a refuge. The Yen typically strengthens in times of financial turmoil as Japan's trade surplus makes the currency attractive.

Japan's currency rose against all 16 major counterparts as Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 0.7% and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index of regional shares lost 0.2%. The Yen traded to 93.59 per Dollar from 94.36 in New York yesterday. Japan's currency traded at 133.16 per EUR, up from 134.22. With no major news expected from Japan, movements in global equities will continue to dominate Yen sentiment for today.

Crude Oil - Crude Prices Fall Despite Global Optimism

Crude Oil finished trading at $72.14 a barrel yesterday, down $1.64, as investors felt that the commodity was overvalued. Therefore, they dropped the commodity, and put their money into even riskier assets. Traders dropped Crude for equities, as better than expected manufacturing data added to evidence the recession may be ending. Crude Oil prices also dropped yesterday, as investors realized it was overvalued, as prices soared over the previous 2 days.

In light of the continuous low demand, Oil prices have used equities to estimate the economy's progress and recovery. While Wednesday's equities rally was driven by the surprisingly low inventories, it does not appear to be the beginning of a trend, as only a sustained increase in demand can permanently bring down the inventory level, and there is still no sign for that. Therefore, if equities rise again today and the dollar weakens significantly, we may see Crude Oil prices rebound.

Article Source - USD to Go Volatile on U.S. Homes Sales and Bernanke Speech

US Dollar, Japanese Yen to Gain as China Tightens Bank Rules (Euro Open)

2009-08-21T23:23:00.000+07:00

The US Dollar and the Japanese Yen stand to gain after China announced a plan to raise bank reserve requirements to 12%, trimming lending and weighing on risk appetite. The economic calendar is uneventful in European hours, with currency markets likely to look to stock and commodity markets to set the tone for directional momentum.

Key Overnight Developments

• New Zealand Credit Card Spending Contracts for Ninth Month
• Risky Assets Retreat as China Promises to Tighten Reserve Requirements

Critical Levels

The Euro kept to familiar territory in overnight trading, oscillating above the 1.42 level. The British Pound traded lower, slipping below the 1.65 level once again to test as low as 1.6436.

Asia Session Highlights

New Zealand Credit Card Spending declined for the ninth consecutive month on a year-over-year basis in July, by 2.0%. This occurred as the combined debit and credit card spending figure rose 0.8%. The combination of the two pieces of data might lead one to suggest that debit card spending dominated over purchases made with credit. Such an environment would be yield-negative. A drop in the demand for borrowed funds would create incentives for banks and other lenders to drop the interest rate they charge to their customers in an effort to attract business. As such, the New Zealand Dollar could be hurt in the medium run as foreigners find that the country continues to diminish their own yield advantage over others. On balance, the decline does not necessarily indicate that New Zealanders have forfeited their shopping habits. A deeper look into the data shows that the use of credit cards abroad, by domestic residents, rose 4.5%. Tourism spending, however, may be cyclical and might not necessarily indicate that next month's figure will rise.

Risky assets retreated, boosting the safety-linked Japanese Yen and US Dollar as China Banking Regulatory Commission said it was drafting a rule change that raise reserve requirements for Chinese banks to 12%, pushing firms to rein in lending. Policymakers rushed to boost lending access at the height of the credit crunch but are now concerned that these measures may be overshooting to create a speculative bubble. The Hong Kong Stock Index promptly retreated on the announcement and other exchanges may be soon to follow considering the market’s recent focus on China as the poster-child of recovery from the global downturn, promising further gains for the Japanese unit and the greenback.

Euro Session: What to Expect

The economic calendar is decidedly bare in European hours, with Augusts’ Euro Zone Purchasing Manager Index the only notable item on the docket. Expectations call for a rise to 48.0 from 47.0 in the previous month, showing that the service and manufacturing sectors will shrink again this month, albeit at a slower pace. Indeed, the pace of contraction has steadily moderated since the index hit a record low at 36.2 in February as ample global stimulus measures as well as a widespread move to restock depleted inventories helped slow the bleeding. Both of these catalysts are inherently temporary, however, and PMI readings are likely to reverse course lower in the months ahead as the weight of rising unemployment holds back a sustainable rebound rooted in private demand.

On balance, scheduled event risk does not present meaningful market-moving potential, with currency markets likely to look to stock and commodity markets to set the tone for risk sentiment and shape directional momentum.

Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Analyst and Luis Gil, DailyFX Research
Article Source - US Dollar, Japanese Yen to Gain as China Tightens Bank Rules (Euro Open)

ETF Trend Trading With Big A

2009-08-21T22:31:00.000+07:00

The Thursday night recorded webinar is now up. I have a huge $1,997 bonus for only the next 21 people. It was 65, but now it's only 21, so please ignore that 65 number on the webinar. On the webinar I teach:

ETF Trend Trading With Big A

- The little known position sizing trick that can double your returns regardless of what market or system you trade.

- Proof that one of my students is now trading over 8 million dollars.

- Two simple tricks that instantly remove 95% of your emotions in trading. As all traders know the emotions of fear and greed are the number one killers of traders.

- How some hedge funds hunt stops and a simple trick to avoid this from happening to you most of the time. Yes hedge funds, brokers and other individuals (not the "market") really do hunt stops.

- Why money managers only risk 1-2% per trade and still make great returns.

- Why trading is not a "zero sum game" and what this really means for the average trader.

- How to make strong profits using the daily charts and trading only 10 minutes per night.

- How Jim Rogers, Warren Buffett, and others became great traders and investors.

- What the "gurus" selling hype trading courses are hiding from you and an easy way to spot counterfeit "trading teacher" from a mile away.

- One of my exit strategies.

- How to not be vague with your entries and stops like when others who say, "Buy a few cents, ticks, or pips above ___."

- A little known, no cost, scanner tool that can help you right now.

- A complementary excel sheet that does ALL the math for you so you can easily see the optimal position size and risk vs. reward ratio on all trades.

- 7 highest dividend paying ETFs.

- Much more.

I promise it won't be a waste of your time. I share a little of my story, but most of the hour is spent on the subjects above. I will stop selling my ETF mentorship program on August 23rd for a good portion of the rest of the year. That is not marketing hype. I like to support all the new students plus I need to see if any slippage is caused by all the new accounts. I don't think their will be, but I need to double check. I fully expect the $1,997 bonus to be gone before Sunday. As you know I like to share good content with my subscribers and this is the first time I have done so in the webinar format. It is a large file so it might take a little while to load. Here is the link, it's the top video:

ETF Trend Trading With Big A

To slow and Steady growth,
Big A

Stock Assault 2.0

2009-08-21T21:08:00.000+07:00

We are proud to announce a brand new Stock Assault 2.0 product: Stock Assault 2.0 SideKick Edition! Is the Classic Stock Assault 2.0 not Giving You Enough Stock Picks? Do You Want To Input Any Stock or Market and GENERATE YOUR OWN PICKS? Or Maybe You Want to Analyze Your Current Positions or Test Your Own Strategies? Stock Assault 2.0 SideKick Edition Gives you the Massive Power of Our AI Engine Right on Your Own Computer. Very Powerful, Very Easy to Use.Learn more about Stock Assault 2.0 SideKick Edition:

Stock Assault 2.0

This revolutionary product will give anyone an even greater edge in the stock market. The classic Stock Assault 2.0 delivers stock picks from an unmodifiable AI engine. However, many people expressed interest in being able to train and set up their own AI engine. The wait is over, Stock Assault 2.0 SideKick Edition is here today! Learn more about Stock Assault 2.0 SideKick Edition:

Stock Assault 2.0

Stock Assault 2.0 SideKick Edition Features:

* Use in addition to or as a "Sidekick" to Stock Assault 2.0.
* Run any stock or market through Stock Assault 2.0 SideKick Edition and get exact entry and exit points.
* Find out the best possible exit for your current positions.
* Analyze a stock before investing and get the best possible entry.
* Analyze portfolios and predict near-term and long-term ROI.
* Not sure whether to keep holding a position? Stock Assault 2.0 SideKick Edition will predict future movements with jaw-dropping accuracy.
* Never before was anyone able to own an AI engine like this before, we finally made it possible. We prove that knowing future stock movements is possible.
* Full product manual included. Very easy to use, just plug in parameters in the step by step wizards and let the AI engine crunch away.
* One time fee only. Free automatic upgrades. No data feed necessary.

Stock Assault 2.0 SideKick Edition is a software program intended for the prediction of situations originating in the markets and generating predictions for proper purchase and sale moments. The off-the-shelf algorithmic developments in neural net theory, together with the optimally calculated parameters of prediction models, have allowed us to create a unique software product. Complete visualization of data, the possibility of saving restoring creating new neural net models, complete on-line support and updated stock quote data through the Internet are just some of the possibilities of Stock Assault 2.0 SideKick Edition.

Stock Assault 2.0

Stock Assault 2.0 SideKick Edition will show you all the power of artificial intelligence and non-standard analytical abilities in such difficult areas as the predictability of a market change.Stock Assault 2.0 SideKick Edition is an application for traders, investors and brokers. It is an advanced charting tool with a predictive core based on artificial intelligence technology using neural networks. Stock Assault 2.0 SideKick Edition will help you to make decisions on entering and exiting the market, on buying your favorite stock or selling it at the best moment, for maximum profit. Learn more about Stock Assault 2.0 SideKick Edition:

Stock Assault 2.0

A core-complex neural network structure is used for training and forecasting. The data used for building neural network models is stock quote data with complex pre- and post- processing, noise removal, filtration, normalization, dynamic data reduction, etc. This transformed data is used for training models. Stock Assault 2.0 SideKick Edition will help you to feel the pulse of the stock market and get recommendations of the best BUY/SELL moments. The program is highly tailored and specially developed for both professional stock traders and beginners. Advanced structures, algorithms and modern research resulting in neural net modeling make it possible to offer this product specially designed for traders and investors.

Stock Assault 2.0

Applications, based on neural net technology, are often more effective, than the most professional trader. Such applications make heuristic analysis of stock market behavior, predicting a direction for the market and giving buy/sell signals on some time interval. The professional trader, using the given program, can predict with a most exacting degree of success. The program has been highly effective on the most risky securities markets, in unstable and analytically unpredictable markets. Learn more about Stock Assault 2.0 SideKick Edition:

Stock Assault 2.0

This professional application allows you to reduce the risk of investing, and enables easier decision making. The series of tests which have been carried out by professional traders, have allowed us to improve the internal structure neural net models, and using the newest algorithms, to achieve excellent results in the prediction of the movement of the market. A free online data source allows you to create models online, and update them daily... getting new recommendations for buy, sell or hold decisions. A professional statistical module can give you all details about your model's accuracy, profitability and profit ratios, ROA, PRR, etc.

Stock Assault 2.0

Stock Assault 2.0 SideKick Edition has an easy-to-use interface, which gives you the ability to create a model with just a few clicks, train the model and generate forecasting (without a knowledge of neural network theory and deep math analysis). You can create your own portfolio of models, open them, update them with new stock quotes, train, estimate accuracy and profitability, get forecasting signals, print stock charts with forecasting results and examine your current open trading positions, all extremely easily, with a user-friendly interface.

Stock Assault 2.0

Thank you,
Stock Assault 2.0

ETF Trend Trading

2009-08-21T16:51:00.000+07:00

Before I share my new article about how I don't have a clue, I want to give you a quick heads up about my complimentary videos. My office had a few emails about how those videos could not be viewed. We are fixing the problem today and you should be able to view them all in a few hours. Make sure to click on the "flash" version of each video. Thanks.

ETF Trend Trading

I don't have a clue which way the market is going, nor do I care. One of the best revelations a new trader can get is that you don't need to know which way the market is going to move. When I say the market "should" continue to trend to this major support or resistance it is because I actually don't have a clue.

ETF Trend Trading

Trading is best done whilst knowing you are completely clueless. In that way, you can't be wrong, and pride and emotional attachment are not an issue. For those of you that have traded live money for over a month you know that false pride and emotional attachment is the killer of good trading. Can you see how admitting you don't know the future is liberating?

ETF Trend Trading

Can you imagine how all those CNN analysts and mutual fund managers felt when the market first started to crash and they said the worst was over, but it wasn't? Can you imagine how those will feel in this current up move who say the market will recover and the others who say it won't? One group is wrong and will eat their words. It's better to just let price lead and to follow it with a proven etf trend trading system.

ETF Trend Trading

It is totally possible to trade without knowing what's going to happen. In fact, I think it's the only way and that is what I teach my students. The reason it is possible is by trading with only a statistical edge and proper money management, not trading on hunches, tips or what you "think" the market will do.

Many of my students who have been with me for awhile and know my system inside and out still participate in my weekly webinars. They do it for the psychological mentorship aspect. They like to hear my "boring" statements of reinforcement such as:

- I don't know the future and I don't care.

- Don't move your stops or add to a losing trade.

- Stay patient with your winners and don't cash out early.

- Do add on trades when the system says to, if you don't you won't maximize the trend.

- All trends have some sideways or pull back movements.

- Don't worry sideways markets can only last so long, at some point a new trend will emerge and when it does be sure to follow the system and act.

- Small losses are part of an overall winning system, stay patient.

And on and on. Don't worry that part is only about 5 minutes of my two, one-hour each weekly webinars. The rest of the time is answering technical questions and looking at any charts my students have questions on.

The bottom line is that it's ok to not have a clue about which way the market is going, but it's not ok to not have a clue about trading and investing.You don't have to learn the full system if you don't want to. You could just follow some of my exact trades on my daily blog, but you are still required to buy my course to do this. I don't like anyone following totally blind. Everyone must at least have a conceptual understanding of why I do what I do in the market because if you don't you won't believe in the system as much and therefore won't follow it as you should.

ETF Trend Trading

You can make even more than my blog trades if you learn to trade the system. This is because of two simple reasons. First the blog only follows a small list of ETFs whereas you could follow the top 20-30 and cherry pick the best set ups each day. Doing this requires an extra 10-15 minutes per night. Secondly is because I teach an advanced money management and position sizing technique that should be used on all trades that have a great risk vs. reward ratio. When followed this can increase your profits by over 50% compared to the blog trades.

ETF Trend Trading

Member Testimonial:

- I'm impressed. By trading at night with the markets closed, and by having known entry and exit points, I'm less emotional, and thus I find myself sleeping more soundly. I like a coach like yourself that has been in the game and who is not afraid to post their trades and exit points in advance.

Harold P - Retired

To slow and steady growth,
Big A, Former Hedge Fund Manager
ETF Trend Trading

The James De Wet Forex Reports

2009-08-21T16:29:00.000+07:00

I sometimes forget that my "alpha-strategies" really work and that people keep wanting them. He's totally right. I'll admit I'm freakishly obsessed about creating new opportunities for folks to profit from the Forex market in different ways. I get so totally absorbed and excited with this stuff.

The James De Wet Forex Reports

I just realised that a lot of the strategies I've given to folks in the past are still super-awesome and are still helping traders make a lot of money(I guess I'm a bit slow on the uptake here). Anyway, folks keep asking for this stuff:

1...My daily forex strategy
2...My quickie videos and updates
3...The complete G7 trading system
4...Discounts on the stuff I send you

HERE'S HOW YOU CAN GET IT ALL
Chris is going to send TRADERS CLUB MEMBERS a special link TODAY which gives you a special link to get all the material above completely free forever. I think that's pretty good news, seeing as TTC guys have been on the "back-burner" for a few weeks, and some are a bit pissed off.

The James De Wet Forex Reports

If you're a TTC member, then wait for Chris's email with the links. Don't miss it in your email inbox. This is only for TTC members. Not E75 Forex guys and gals. But hey, you don't have to miss out on this unique opportunity...........

IF YOU AREN'T A TRADERS CLUB MEMBER
You can get the whole thing here:

The James De Wet Forex Reports

At this stage, I'm not advertising this offer ANYWHERE and I don't plan to do so in the future. You can only ever get into this program if you are a past TTC member or on my special list.

The James De Wet Forex Reports

One more thing. My special reports aren't for everyone. They are sort of "ninja"
strategies for pulling big profits from the Forex market. Readers need to ACT on the stuff I send them. Don't miss out on being part of this wonderful new community of traders. See video... This video also explains the improvements we want to make to our current sites. The video is crucial though. Please make sure you put aside just 15 minutes to watch it. It does affect you directly, plus the more people that get involved, the greater the benefit to all.

Speak soon
James

Forex Decimator

2009-08-21T12:10:00.000+07:00

Forex Decimator has already hit the maximum number of subscribers for the introductory price offer.I am happy to bring you some incredible news...The Forex Trading market is about to be changed forever...by an amazing revolutionary new robot, Forex Decimator. I have been given the chance to review and trade live with this amazing new EA...and the results it has produced are unbelievable! As you well know, I have tested a fair few robots in my time...This EA really is truly groundbreaking.

Forex Decimator

Imagine a Forex robot so consistent that it turned $10,000 into $100,000 running totally automatically on default LOW-RISK settings. Because this is what Ian Ross has managed to achieve with this incredible product. Forex Decimator uses incredible artificial intelligence to actually predict market movement and trades...It can demonstrate a 92% winning trades ratio. Most Forex robots can only dream to be so accurate.

Forex Decimator

It is also one of the few robots that has been designed specifically to thrive in the turbulent economic conditions of 2009...and finally put the small-trader at the top of the Forex tree. Forex Decimator is equipped with incredible money management rules which make trading safer than it has ever been before ensuring that your winnings will never be wiped out. Ian is convinced that Forex Decimator will revolutionise the Forex Market. It will transform your life forever.

Forex Decimator

This EA is totally unique and you may never see another robot quite like it ever again. Its revolutionary new technology means that it renders most other robots on the market both unsafe and totally obsolete. I promise to keep you posted on the latest developments of this robot. It is certain to be a sure-fire hit amongst all who trade on the Forex market. Forex Decimator has been designed to work totally automatically.

Forex Decimator

It will also make money for all Forex traders, no matter how experienced or inexperienced they may be and no matter whether they start with $100 or $10,000! However, initial indications suggest that Ian will only be making 500 copies of this incredible robot available...so you will have to act very fast indeed to ensure you get yours.

Forex Decimator

Forex Decimator has now been unleashed and is available now. This is the revolutionary new robot that I have been telling you about.It is capable of turning $10,000 into $100,000 running on default LOW-RISK settings completely on autopilot. Act quickly and reserve your copy now before all 500 are snapped up by smarter traders. Go ahead and review this very important letter right now....

Forex Decimator

Forex Decimator is a new, revolutionary robot that will allow you to profit consistently, in any condition and with unrivalled accuracy. It has a proven 92% winning trades accuracy, putting itself at the very forefront of Forex trading technology. It is proven to be able to siphon off $9,000 with just one single trade! Forex Decimator's incredible in-built money management rules mean that you will never see your profits wiped out with a single bad trade...A problem many other robots fail to solve.Forex Decimator simply thrives on the present volatile market conditions that other robots just can't cope with. It is having its best year ever in live trading!

Forex Decimator

The Artificial Intelligence this robot possesses is truly revolutionary and is your dream ticket to incredible profits. Imagine being able to go about your daily routine safe in the knowledge that your Forex market decimating machine is making you a fortune without you even lifting a finger. $9,000 profit with one single trade is quite some going when you consider the safety that this robot offers you! These are the kind of results that Forex Decimator will achieve for you! Take a look for yourself:

Forex Decimator

If you are sick of having your fingers burnt by inferior Forex robots then it is time to rid yourself of these deceptions and trade with the very best. And remember;

- Forex Decimator has been designed so that it can be used not only by experienced Forex traders but also by the little guy; i.e. the 9 to 5'ers who wish to see their income increase significantly. It also allows you to get started with as little as $100, with no technical jargon to worry about.

- Because it is totally automated, it takes just 10 minutes per week to run. Absolutely no work or experience in trading are needed.

- The robot's incredible money management rules mean that unlike with most robots on the market, you will never see your profits wiped out on a single bad trade.

The consistency of Forex Decimator is simply staggering, which can be seen in its rock-solid proofs.

- Forex Decimator has experienced years and years of careful development and nurturing with input from some of the best guys in the business.

- The robot was built specifically for the current volatile and testing 2009 market conditions, using up-to-date methods and strategies.

In fact, it has been programmed to automatically move with market conditions each and every time they change.

Forex Decimator

Ian is so sure that you will be happy with Forex Decimator that it comes with a 60 day money-back guarantee. So there really is no risk when it comes to using this EA. The only thing you risk is missing out on it if you don't act NOW! I can advise you of this much, this is a product that you seriously do not want to miss out on. Opportunities like this in the Forex Market don't come along every day; make sure that you give some serious thought to grabbing this one with both hands... and quickly...

Forex Decimator

Forex Decimator has caused a real storm throughout the Forex industry. Subscribers are profiting and seeing their lives changed for the better. Indeed, initial feedback on the product has been as positive as I told you that it would be. Imagine what you could do with an extra $9,000 a day. Hurry up and find out!

Forex Decimator

This really is an exceptional opportunity to put you at the top of the Forex trading pack and make you lots and lots of money. Forex Decimator has been thoroughly tested and configured to produce huge profits for years and years to come and can work in each and every market condition. I have now helped you as much as I can. It is now down to you to grasp this incredible opportunity.

Forex Decimator

Finally, an opportunity to seize the chance to change your life forever. I am delighted to introduce you to Forex Decimator...a revolutionary new Forex robot capable of turning $10,000 into $100,000 running on default LOW-RISK settings and completely on autopilot. I have been lucky enough to review and trade with this product... and I can confirm that this is the robot that we have all been waiting for! So, what makes this robot different? Well, the first thing is the fantastic, rock-solid, results...Forex Decimator's winning trades ratio is at an amazing 92%...which makes it a true market leader.

Forex Decimator

Forex Decimator is equipped with revolutionary new technological advancements in Artificial Intelligence...which allow it to accurately predict market movement, ensuring long-term success and rendering most other robots out there totally obsolete. These breakthroughs in robot technology will solve every problem you have as a Forex trader in 2009.

In fact, it has been programmed to automatically move with market conditions each and every time they change. It is time for you to stop wasting your cash on robots that actually lose you money. This is the real market decimating robot that you have been waiting for! The one capable of siphoning off $9,000 with just one single trade! The one that you simply cannot afford to miss out
on! Have a look at what Ian has to say below and be your own judge.

Forex Decimator

Have you ever wondered why your Forex trading has never quite gone according to plan and why you keep losing money? Forex Decimator will change all that. Forex Decimator has proved again and again that it will work consistently to bring you amazing profits. And one of the best things about this EA is that once you've set it up it achieves all these incredible results totally automatically. This revolutionary new system is perfect for those entering the Forex market for the first time... or for the many traders who have wasted their time with other Forex systems.

Forex Decimator

And there is absolutely no doubt about it; this will be totally different from anything you've experienced before. Forex Decimator really is one of the most sophisticated and advanced Forex robots on the market. It has siphoned off $9,000 with just one trade! Are you ready to become automatically rich via the Forex market I hope so because the earning potential that Forex Decimator offers you is fierce! The feedback is good, the results and proofs are good, the product is fantastic. This is a true winner! Nothing can compare when it comes to short or long-term profitability. Take a look for yourself!

Forex Decimator

Forex Slasher

2009-08-20T23:51:00.000+07:00

I am really excited to announce a major breakthrough in the way you can trade Forex to generate massive profits on auto-pilot and with an almost 100% accuracy. This is nothing like you have ever heard before, so I really encourage you to take a few minutes of your time to read this short post -- it's just incredible stuff. A while ago I was contacted by the Forex Slasher team about a new superior A.I. that they have been developing for quite a while and that produced never seen before results. Let me tell you, their robot truly is a "superior A.I."...

Forex Slasher

I had a pick at this robot and, I must admit, I was shocked. All these years taking risks whilst trying to find the "miracle" system or piece of software made me feel so silly! Forex Slasher is like nothing you have ever seen before, during our testings it has effortlessly turned a bank of $10,000 into a whopping $378,137.49 completely on auto-pilot! What makes Forex Slasher TRULY special is the fact that is not just like 99% of the EA's out there, which are based on indicators or mathematical formulas...

Forex Slasher

That's not bad, but it's just not enough to beat the market! Why? Simply because both methods are blind. Indicators - generally - lag, because they follow the price. That means they always give late signals. Sometimes too late. Forex Slasher instead was developed by a group of REAL Forex experts and is based on a stable and powerful system, to generate the most accurate signals a robot has ever managed to achieved, based on the best indicators, trading formulas and... Extremely powerful price patterns:

Forex Slasher

And now, here is the greats news for YOU...These guys just had enough of all the "hype" and the "lies" around forex robots and decided to come out of the shadow to *proof* that a team of professional traders and programmers can indeed develop the "ultimate forex robot", the one capable of returning high profits with very little risk. But the so called "experts" have been doing it wrong all along...

Forex Slasher

And they are ready to genuinely help those average traders, looking for a REAL way to make a living with Forex, who have been let down over and over in the past. So head over to the Forex Slasher website and watch their video to find out why the other Forex robots NEVER work for the average trader and why this is your ONLY chance to get something that produces REAL results in the LONG term. Watch the video, read their secret report and take advantage of the free course "Secrets to Forex Success" (worth $97.00) that they are also handing you over on this page:

Forex Slasher

Head Fake Filter

2009-08-20T19:34:00.000+07:00

Heard the whispering about the Head Fake Filter that is making a lot of money for many traders. Make sure to pay attention because you will soon have a very time sensitive chance to grab one of my most guarded secret techniques that have added hundreds of thousands to my bank..You may have heard the whispers about the infamous "Head Fake Filter" A filter I've given out free before my last sold out $10,000 workshop.

The past few days I've teased you a bit about one of my killer techniques, it's a filter that you can use to pull some really HUGE PIPS...Well it just wouldn't be kind of me if I didn't allow you to see the video of me explaining the technique now would it? (I couldn't do that to you). I got tons of emails asking about it, so here it is. This video will only be up for a very limited time, so don't wait, I want you to be like few others who have this in their arsenal and use it to make quick gains. Don't wait check it out here:

There were over 200 comments on the blog about it and we had tons of testimonials and you tube video testimonials about it producing KILLER gains quickly...In fact you can do a search on YOU TUBE for the term "Head Fake Filter" and some cool videos come up. Traders of all levels were able to use this head fake filter of mine to produce some very nice gains...(And the buzz is growing). I'm always getting begged to release this head fake filter again to those who have heard about it but weren't able to grab it when it was available.. (Literally, people are really foaming at the mouth to get this baby, and I understand why) Stay tuned in the next few days as I have some surprises in store, and I'm going to let you in on a big secret about this head fake filter that I know you're going to be shocked about.

Cheers
Tom Strignanos

10 Forex Trading Rules

2009-08-20T17:12:00.000+07:00

90% of the new forex traders don’t survive their first year of trading. Many forex traders fail and empty their trading accounts before they learn how to exploit the forex market to the fullest. Forex trading is like the survival of the fittest. It is one of the hardest jobs in the world to make money and forex trading is not one of the easiest ways despite the tall claims made by many.

Harness your inner potential if you want to succeed at forex trading. Forex trading is something that should come out from within you. Success lies within you. Many times, the traders are not aware of the fact that they have the power and might to shift the odds in their favor. Some traders do succeed at making a lot of money in the forex market but their numbers are not many.

In the 21st century, the buzzword is knowledge. This is the age of information and knowledge. The main reason why traders get defeated by the market can be attributed to their lack of knowledge. You can dramatically increase your chances of success if you want to by getting good training and education before you jump into the arena.

Without knowledge you cannot succeed. Every trader wants to get hold of the Holy Grail. A lot of traders seek the perfect formula that can predict the price action with 100% accuracy. Know this there is no perfect formula or trading strategy. But if you seek knowledge you may find something that works almost like 70-80% of the time. Nothing is perfect in this world. Knowledge is the key that can open many doors. Not only you need to know and understand how the forex market works, you also need to understand your own emotions and other people’s emotions. It is not just a matter of working hard but also a matter of working smart.

So you need knowledge about how the forex markets work, how the price action takes place, what moves the markets in the short term as well as the long term. You also need a set of good rules that can help you achieve success. In fact, you need to understand the high probability trade setups and how to manage your money wisely. The ten rules that I think are important for forex trading are listed below:

Forex Trading Rules On What You Should Do:
1) Practice is what will make you perfect. This is a childhood lesson that most forget but still works in the forex world or for that matter anywhere. Practice and practice on your demo account. When trying out a new trading strategy, first test it on your demo account.
2) Record keeping is what we constantly do in our offices and our businesses. Without a record we are blind. The same applies in the forex world; always keep a record of each trade that you make. Maintain a Trading Journal that should contain a record of each of your trades. Analyze each trade in the trading journal. Try to figure out what went wrong by putting your thoughts in writing. Write about the lessons learned and how you can make a better trade in the future.
3) You will find various methods and strategies on forex trading. Learn them but in the end it is all about customization. It is all about developing your own trading plan. Develop a personalized trading plan and update it frequently as you learn from the market. See what works for you. Something may work for others but it may not work for you. Only testing it will tell you what works for you. Once something works, tweak it to improve it further.
4) Never ever trade with a risk/reward ratio of less than 1:2! Only trade when you are sure about a risk/reward ratio of 1:2. When unsure of a trade, don’t make it. Stay out! It is always better to miss an opportunity than to have a loss.
5) Keep yourself abreast of the development in the forex markets. Daily monitor the market for 15-30 minutes. Update yourself frequently about the fundamentals and technicals affecting the market.

Forex Trading Rules On What You Don’t Need To Do:
1) Always be careful with money. Rule number one never ever trade with borrowed money! It will affect you emotionally and force you to make irrational trading decisions. Always trade with money that you can afford to lose! Money that you don’t need to pay for your utility bills and other necessities of life!
2) Try to understand the method and strategy with which you are comfortable. You should be able to understand why you are getting into a trade and how you are going to get out of it. Don’t follow someone’s advice blindly. Listen to what the other person is saying but try to understand the method behind.
3) Your number one duty is to be profitable. Always cut your losses and let your winner run. Just be concerned about being profitable. Don’t be concerned about being right.
4) Don’t take the brokers bait and leverage 100:1 or 50:1. 5:1 leverage ratio is enough. Don’t try to learn it the hard way how dangerous leverage can be. Don’t over leverage!
5) Control your emotions. Trading is all about controlling emotions. Learn to stay calm and composed. Don’t try to take revenge from the market after a terrible loss. Vent your frustration somewhere else.

In trading there are so many factors specific to each trader that can influence the overall trading performance like emotions, psychology, trading time frames, money management rules, lifestyle, trading capital and so on. Some strategies may work very well for some traders but may not have the same results for other over a period of time. One of the most important things that a trader needs to learn is the matching of trading method with the trader’s own trading style and personality.

BOE Reveals Doubt over Short-Term Recovery

2009-08-20T15:27:00.000+07:00

Yesterday's bearish behavior by the GBP was felt by many traders as the Bank of England's (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) released the minutes from a recent meeting regarding interest rates and quantitative easing. There was a hint of dissension among the policymakers with some calling for a greater extension of the quantitative easing program which ended up pumping an additional 50 billion Pounds into the UK market recently. Fears over weak inflationary growth and market downturns have some MPC members lobbying for more aggressive measures, which puts pressure on the Pound.

USD - The Dollar Turns Down as US Stocks Rebound

The greenback fell against 11 of its 16 major currency counterparts Wednesday before a report, expected to show an index of U.S. economic indicators, rose for a 4th consecutive month. The U.S Dollar traded near a 1-week low against the EUR on speculation economic data will add to signs the global recession is easing, prompting investors to seek higher-yielding assets. The Dollar changed hands at $1.4230 vs. the EUR down from $1.4127 yesterday.

The U.S. Dollar was supported in earlier trading by declining U.S. stocks, following Chinese markets, prompting investors to move toward assets perceived as less risky.
However, the Dollar weakened against the Japanese yen, although it came off the day's worst levels, as a sharp slide by China's stock market overnight raised concerns about the global economic outlook and boosted the Japanese currency's allure.

In recent months, the USD has tended to fall as stock prices and risk appetite rises, giving investors less impetus to buy dollars as a safe haven. In the absence of fresh economic data, currencies were mostly following stock prices for direction. Traders may see more volatility and choppy trades given that not much is happening in terms of events. So any correction to stock markets could be a key driver for the USD currency.

EUR - The EUR Hits Session High above $1.42

Europe's single currency gained versus 11 of its 16 major rivals on Wednesday as economists said the Markit Economics' composite index of both industries may be the highest in a year. The index is based on a survey of purchasing managers and due for release on Aug. 21st. The EUR added to gains against the U.S. Dollar, rising 0.6%, as stocks pared losses and oil prices rose sharply. The EUR also pared losses against the Yen and was last down 0.1% at 133.60 yen, off a one-month low of 132.16.

The European currency rose from near a 1-week low against the GBP on speculation a European report this week will show manufacturing and service industries contracted at a slower pace, adding to signs the recession in the 16-nation region is abating. The British Pound weakened 0.9% to 86.07 pence per EUR and dropped 0.2% vs. the Dollar to $1.6534.

The GBP extended losses after Bank of England (BOE) meeting minutes showed that some policymakers had wanted to extend quantitative easing by more than the amount decided. The central bank is spending 175 billion pounds to buy assets in a move aimed at pushing down borrowing costs to revive the U.K.'s shrinking economy. Asset purchases require the BOE to print money, which some investors fear may lead to an oversupply of the Sterling and eventual inflation.

JPY - JPY Rises as Chinese shares fall more than 2%

The Japanese yen rose versus other major currencies on Wednesday as a fall in Chinese shares made investors cautious about returning to risky investments. The Yen climbed to its strongest level in 3 weeks against the U.S. Dollar after China's benchmark stock index fell into a so-called bear market, reigniting concern that the global economic recovery is stalling.

China's main stock index, which tracks the bigger of China's stock exchanges, slumped 4.3%, leading other Asian bourses lower and boosting demand for the Yen as a refuge. The Yen typically rises during times of financial turmoil because Japan's trade surplus reduces the nation reliance on foreign capital. The JPY also gained against all 16 major counterparts after the Daily Telegraph cited Hartmut Schauerte, the economic state secretary, saying Germany is preparing measures with the Bundesbank in anticipation of a new credit crunch wave early next year.

Crude Oil - Oil Rallies on Sharp U.S. Inventory Data

Crude prices soared above $73 a barrel on Wednesday, as rising U.S. equities and an unexpected drop in inventories propelled oil prices to finish at their highest level since early June. Oil surged as much as 5.2% yesterday after crude stockpiles dropped 8.4 million barrels last week, the most since the week ended May 23, 2008, an Energy Department report showed. Crude Oil also gained as the U.S Dollar declined against other currencies, increasing the appeal of commodities to investors looking for an inflation hedge.

Oil prices fell earlier on Wednesday, hitting a low of $68.05 after a near 5% slump in Chinese shares sent doubts rippling through global markets about the strength of the world economic recovery. Traders also watched for storms in the Atlantic Basin but no immediate threat was seen to U.S. oil installations in the Gulf of Mexico. Expectations for a potential rebound in the economy could increase fuel consumption and have already helped lift prices.

Article Source - BOE Reveals Doubt over Short-Term Recovery

British Pound Holds 1.65 Level Against US Dollar Ahead of Retail Sales Report (Euro Open)

2009-08-20T15:11:00.000+07:00

The British Pound held on to the 1.65 level against the US Dollar after coming off the late NY-session high in overnight trading ahead of a report that is set to show Retail Sales grew for the second straight month in July. Switzerland’s Trade Balance and ZEW survey of investor confidence are also on tap.

Key Overnight Developments

• Australia Recalls Ambassador to China for ‘Urgent Meeting’
• RBA Sold A$705 Million into Currency Markets in July
• Euro, British Pound Yield Flat Result After Choppy Session

Critical Levels

The Euro stands effectively flat having spent much of the overnight session in choppy consolidation above the 1.42 level. The British Pound followed suit, oscillating above the 1.65 mark.

Asia Session Highlights

Australia's ambassador to China, Geoff Raby, was told to return to Canberra on such a short notice to participate in urgent talks considering the waning relationship between the two countries, reports have said. Moments ago, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd stated that Australia-China relations are full of challenges. Much of the diplomatic tensions came after China detained Rio Tinto executive Stern Hu in an espionage dispute. It is of some worry that trade between the two nations will suffer as a result. Grief between the two comes during a period in which the 1.3-billion person nation found itself to be the largest single country destination for Australian exports. Since the start of the year, Australian shipments to the Asian country have surged 54%. But with Australia failing to even show up in the official export statistics figure for China, it appears as though the latter has less to worry over its ties with the former.

The Reserve Bank of Australia reduced the level sold of its domestic currency in July to A$705 million after a month in which they sold a record amount, A$1.943 billion. Since the start of the year, the bank has sold a net total of nearly A$6.0 billion in the foreign exchange market. Selling has come during a period in which the Australian Dollar gained 16.3% on a trade-weighted basis and 19% against the greenback. Price action of this nature probably hurt the country's export sector in an already weak global trading environment. June, however, saw these efforts pay off after the trade balance unexpectedly shrunk for the first time since March on export strength.

Euro Session: What to Expect

UK Retail Sales are set to add 0.4% in July, the second consecutive month in positive territory. The annual pace of growth is expected to register at 2.7%, a bit lower than the previous month’s 2.9% result but certainly better than the -2.0% drop registered in May, the largest in 17 years. The metric has seen atypical volatility over recent months as rising unemployment levels grappled with rebounding asset values and government stimulus for dominance over consumer sentiment. On balance, we see the downside scenario as more plausible: fiscal support is inherently limited with the UK budget deficit already set to average over 12% of GDP though 2010, threatening the country’s sovereign credit rating; meanwhile, global equity valuations are looking increasingly overdone having finished last month at the highest level relative to earnings since 2003. Unemployment growth, meanwhile, looks far more permanent, with a survey of economists conducted by Bloomberg expecting a steady rise to put the jobless rate just shy of 9% by the end of next year. Clearly, this points to the likelihood of a down trend in retail activity for the time being.

Turning to Switzerland, the Trade Balance surplus may narrow again in July as exports extend a multi-month downtrend after dropping by a whopping 23.5% in the previous month, driven lower by lackluster demand in the mountain nation’s main overseas markets. On the opposite side of the equation, the import price index fell at the fastest pace on record in July, suggesting a healthier domestic appetite for overseas goods than the other way around. Separately, the August edition of the ZEW Survey of investor confidence is also on tap.

Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Analyst and Luis Gil, DailyFX Research
Article Source - British Pound Holds 1.65 Level Against US Dollar Ahead of Retail Sales Report (Euro Open)

Forex Trading Tips

2009-08-20T09:11:00.000+07:00

I know a lot of traders who are new to forex market. They often contact me asking questions or to share their experiences with forex market. As I expected lot of them face the frustrations of streak of loosing trades. Some have so many losses that they see their whole trading account get wiped out. I find that all beginner traders experience losses due to few main reasons -

1. Primarily because of poor money management. They don't have enough idea on how much to risk per trade which is one of the most important points when it comes to having profitable trades. And infact Money Management is a big topic in itself. I'll touch more on it in my next posts.

2. The other big reason is that most of new traders don't know what to focus on. They have all sort of charts opened up and they try to find a trade opportunity on every trade. Infact one of the my friends once had 14 different charts opened on the screen and she had 8 different trades opened simultaneously. There is no way she could have managed all of them. As I expected, most of them (7 trades out of the 8) ended in loss since she was mistiming opening and closing the trades.

If having multiple charts is overwehlming, I suggest such traders to focus on only 1 or 2 currency pairs at a time. EUR/USD or GBP/USD are my recommended currency pairs since their spread is low and they have high volatility.

3. No clue on how much to expect. When you open a trade, you need to have a fair understanding on how much to expect per trade. I mean it doesn't need to be an exact number, but just a ball park. Like for day traders it can be 20 pips per lot. For swing traders it can be about 60 pips per lot ..and for scalping it can be about 15 pips per lot since Scalping is all about making tiny profits and have huge number of trades per day. I know a lot of scalper friends who make more than 200 pips each day by executing almost 15-20 trades per day.

Having such idea will let you understand when to close the trade. However if you are a day trader and you start expecting 50+pips profit per lot, then you would have most of the trades end in the loss. So its always good to know what range of profits can be expected from the types of trades you place..

Now, if any of the above points reflect the difficulty you face, I would request you to take some corrective actions..may be what I recommended. Thats all in this post...

High Velocity Market Master Evil Genius Package

2009-08-19T23:02:00.000+07:00

I consider myself a law abiding, stand-up citizen. You know, I always try to do what's right. I'm not one that condones cheating or telling secrets. That's why when I came across this ‘sin'sational package, I was faced with a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde moment. I knew it really wasn't cheating, but as I plowed through the information, it sure did feel like it. Even as I compose this post, I wonder if I'm doing the right thing. Then, I think again and I know down deep that it would be a crime for me to horde these jaw-dropping tricks of the trade. So I'm passing this along to you. Click at your own risk:

High Velocity Market Master Evil Genius Package

Have I scared you? Ok, let me explain what you'll be exposed to by downloading this ‘evil genius package.'

====An Interview with the Evil Genius Himself====

* It's a 'behind closed doors' interview with an evil genius trader & system developer extraordinaire.

*I've had the pleasure of personally speaking with him before and can honestly say that with over 20 years of trading under his belt, Mark knows his stuff.

(In our inner trading guru circle, Mark is known as that quiet guy who has a lot going on 'up there.' You know, he's not all about the limelight or craving his 15 minutes of fame. He's much more calculated than that. I've seen people try to crack his shell, only to be met with a smile and a nod (and your butt whipped when it comes to trading!.

*This interview exposes not only Mark's clear strengths, but his embarrassing ‘slip-ups' when it comes to his trade career. It's quite the revealing interview...Make sure you listen to it now:

High Velocity Market Master Evil Genius Package

====The Classified Cheat Sheet====

Basically once this is implemented it will become the 'make it or break it' tool in your trader's tool box. (You won't even believe how fast & easy this can be!)

*Find out THE number 1 step-by-step plan to get a beginner trader up and running in no time flat.

*Discover what the heck this 'trailing' business is all about? And most importantly, how can it make money?

*An INTRICATE look at the nasdaq emini 144 tick chart.

*Plus 8 other ‘CliffNotes' trade teachings that you can quickly skim and nearly pick-up through osmosis.

I know I've struggled with giving this out, but I must say I'm looking forward to watching you transform into the evil trading genius you were meant to be. Download it here:

High Velocity Market Master Evil Genius Package

Now this is what Mark Soberman, the High Velocity Market Master Evil Genius says: "If you've received an email or two from me in the past, you probably know that I consider myself to be a pretty social guy. Sure, I work hard but I love hanging out with friends, traveling to new places, and spending time with my family. Which is why I was downright surprised when a small group of my closest friends and trading colleagues sat me down for an 'intervention'. An intervention? What? Me! At first I wanted to defend myself... and then I just hard to laugh. Finally, I just had to sit down and hear them out. Here's what they had to say...

"Mark, we love ya man. But we can see the pressure is building! You know, you've always been 'that guy' - that guy who is always unnervingly quiet... letting the proverbial gears turn... that guy who just has alot going on 'up there'. We know you've done a ton of crazy tinkering and we just feel like it's time to get it all out... for your own sanity!"

After I heard that, I started thinking. And I mean, really reflecting. And I realized that I couldn't disagree with them! I mean, over the past several months I had been working on some fairly 'classified' material that required not only my normal 110% effort...but also a slightly darker side of me, as well.

So in effort to (A) get it all out and hopefully release some internal pressure and (B) get my friends off of my case, I'm finally letting my 'evil' side out.

High Velocity Market Master Evil Genius Package

I've put together a trick little package detailing all my 'cheats & techniques' that are designed to give you a nearly unfair advantage in the market. And I want you to take it, on me. (Seriously, at no cost.) Go get yours now:

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I'm only going to keep this cheat kit up for a few days so get it now because I'm NOT going to tell you again. Good (or Evil) Trading!"

High Velocity Market Master Evil Genius Package

Drawdown in Forex

2009-08-19T17:56:00.000+07:00

Drawdown is an important money management concept for you to understand before you start trading forex live. Good money management is what will make you survive long term in the markets. Money Management allows you to be proactive in managing risks and how to cope with trading losses which are part and parcel of the game. Money management is about fully optimizing your trading capital.

Survival long term is what trading is all about! Preserve your capital. This is your first and foremost duty as a trader. The concept of drawdown is important for you to understand for the preservation of your capital. Preservation of capital is the key to ensuring a trader’s long term survival in the forex market. For without survival there can be no wealth generation.

Every trader has to take losses. Drawdown in simple terms is the amount of money that you lose while trading. Drawdown is usually expressed as a percentage of your total trading equity at any given time. Drawdown refers to the decline in the trading account equity from a trade or a series of trades.

While many new traders dream of a one big win that will magically make them a millionaire overnight. The truth is most of the trader are more likely to be confronted with one big loss that can wipe out their trading account in a short time. However, if you are clear about drawdown, you can avoid such a painful eventuality. Let’s make drawdown clear with an example. Suppose you are starting with $10,000 in your trading account. You lose $2000. Your drawdown would be 20%. Now you have only $8000 in your account. Suppose you gain $1000 and then again lose $3000. Now $9000+$1000-$3000=$7000 are left in your trading account. This represents a loss of 30% on your starting balance of $10,000. So now your drawdown is 30%.

Keep this in mind that drawdown is calculated when you have a losing trade against your new equity high or your original equity whichever is higher. Drawdown is not an indication of your trading performance. Suppose, you make a gain of $4000 instead of making a loss on your opening balance of $10,000! Now the equity in your trading account is $14,000. In the next trade, you again lose $3000. Equity in your trading account now is $14,000-$3000=$11,000.

Your drawdown should be 21% (= $3000/$14000). This is a 21% decrease from the equity high of $14,000 in the trading account. A 100% drawdown will wipe out your equity in the trading account. Always remember the motto, “Survive to trade another day.” For if you lose all your money, you wont be able to double your account. Only those traders flourish in the market long terms who understand good money management rules really well.

Capital preservation is essential for your long term survival in the market. As the drawdown gets bigger and bigger, it become difficult to recover the equity lost. Many people don’t know that in order to recover the percentage of equity that they lose, they will need to gain a higher percentage just to break even. There is no way around recouping slowly. Don’t try martingale strategies. Only if you want to drive yourself to total destruction by risking more and more of your equity to try to make back your losses.

Holding on to a losing trade for too long is the biggest cause of a big drawdown. If you start losing more and more of your capital, the faster you will go down the drain. Suppose you lose 10% of your trading capital. How much you need to recover? Is it 10%? No! It will require an 11% return on the equity balance in your account to recoup the 10% loss.

Most new traders run out of money even before they see any profits in their trading accounts. When you risk capital on trading, you hope that this amount of money can be transformed into a much bigger amount. But what if you start losing? Let’s make it clear with numbers. Suppose you start with $10,000 equity in your trading account. You lose $1000. Your drawdown is 10%. Now you have $9000 in your trading account. You need to make $1000 to breakeven and recover your loss. This is equal to 11.11% (= $1000/$90000) return on your balance of $9000.

As you can see as the losses increase arithmetically, the gains that are needed to recoup them increase geometrically. If a trader has a big loss, they will have to spend more time to get back to where they were before instead of using the time for making profits. So if you lose 10% of your equity, you will need an 11% return to breakeven. In case of a 20% loss you will need to make 25% in order to breakeven. For a 30% loss, you need 42.85%. For a 40% drawdown you need 66.66%. In case you lose 50% of your equity, you will have to make 100% return for recovering your loss. For a 60% drawdown, you need to make 150% return. For 70% you need 233%. For 80% drawdown, you have to make a return of 400% or in other words quadruple the account just in order to breakeven. For 90%, you need a return of 900% in order to breakeven. In case you have a 100% drawdown, your trading account is wiped out.

Stop Hedge Funds From Stealing Your Profits

2009-08-19T17:35:00.000+07:00

Have you ever had that feeling… after you were stopped out and the market went back in your original direction, that a bank or large fund had hunted your stop and stolen your shares? Well, that’s because it’s true!

On tomorrow night's webinar you'll hear from a former big fund manager, used to do just that. In small markets like penny stocks his firm could do it all by themselves. In larger more liquid markets they would team up with other hedge funds. He says even some banks would do it. So what can you do about it? Learn to either stay out of the market when the hedge funds are hunting stops...or profit from it – it's your choice.

If you prefer the latter, you'll want to join tomorrow's webinar at 8:30pm EST, where you'll discover how to survive the hedge fund hunters. Go ahead and reserve your slot now –with over 200,000 invitations and only 500 spaces, you’ll need to registrar and opt in early to get on the webinar. Click here to register

Stop Hedge Funds

In addition to the long list of topics, he will also be discussing:

-> How some hedge funds hunt stops and a simple trick
to avoid getting caught,most of the time.
(Yes, hedge funds, brokers and other individuals
(not the “market”) really do hunt your stops).

-> One of his four proprietary profit target strategies.
He’ll just give you this valuable tip for listening in Wednesday.

-> How to avoid being vague with your entries and stops
(like those “gurus” who say,
"Buy a few cents, ticks, or pips above __." )

-> A little known, no cost, scanner tool that
can help you improve your trades, now.

-> A complementary excel sheet that does ALL the math
for you.You’ll be able to easily see the optimal position size and
risk vs. reward ratio on all your trades.

-> The 7 highest dividend paying ETFs.

I promise it won’t be a waste of your time. My trader friend used to put on trades as large as $50 million before he left the world of money management. He will explain how he learned these tricks-of-the-trade, but most of the hour will be spent on teaching you how to be a better trader. I like to share useful content with my readers and this is a big chance to do just that. Click here to register for your free seatat the Wednesday night webinar.

Stop Hedge Funds

Don’t forget the contest to win a 1 year trading mentorship. All the entry details will be explained on the call. Don’t place another stop before you hear how the hedge funds are gunning for your profits! Click here to register now for your free webinar slot.

Stop Hedge Funds

In only 1 hour, you’ll be handed years of hard won experience from a big time trader(who’s willing to spill the beans). Plus his 1 year mentorship offer will be unavailable afterThis Sunday night. He is the type of teacher who likes to support his new students and doesn’t need to keep selling courses

This is what Big A, former hedge fund manager has to say about the webinar: "The Thursday night recorded webinar is now up. I have a huge $1,997 bonus for only the next 48 people. It was 65, but now it's only 48, so please ignore that 65 number on the webinar. On the webinar I teach:

- The little known position sizing trick that can double your returns regardless of what market or system you trade.

- Proof that one of my students is now trading over 8 million dollars.

- Two simple tricks that instantly remove 95% of your emotions in trading. As all traders know the emotions of fear and greed are the number one killers of traders.

- How some hedge funds hunt stops and a simple trick to avoid this from happening to you most of the time. Yes hedge funds, brokers and other individuals (not the "market") really do hunt stops.

- Why money managers only risk 1-2% per trade and still make great returns.

- Why trading is not a "zero sum game" and what this really means for the average trader.

- How to make strong profits using the daily charts and trading only 10 minutes per night.

- How Jim Rogers, Warren Buffett, and others became great traders and investors.

- What the "gurus" selling hype trading courses are hiding from you and an easy way to spot counterfeit "trading teacher" from a mile away.

- One of my exit strategies.

- How to not be vague with your entries and stops like when others who say, "Buy a few cents, ticks, or pips above ___."

- A little known, no cost, scanner tool that can help you right now.

- A complementary excel sheet that does ALL the math for you so you can easily see the optimal position size and risk vs. reward ratio on all trades.

- 7 highest dividend paying ETFs.

- Much more.

I promise it won't be a waste of your time. I share a little of my story, but most of the hour is spent on the subjects above. As you know I like to share good content with my subscribers and this is the first time I have done so in the webinar format. It is a large file so it might take a little while to load. Here is the link, it's the top video:

Stop Hedge Funds

I will stop selling my ETF mentorship program on August 23rd for a good portion of the rest of the year. That is not marketing hype. I like to support all the new students plus I need to see if any slippage is caused by all the new accounts. I don't think their will be, but I need to double check. I fully expect the $1,997 bonus to be gone before Sunday."

Stop Hedge Funds

Member testimonial:

I thought I would give you a progress report card.
April 09: +8.07%
May 09: +6.93%
June 09: +3.14%
July 09: +9.21%
As always, thanks for your support and help.

Jerry Q. - Hi-Tech Manager

European Currencies on the Rise along with Risk Appetite

2009-08-19T17:01:00.000+07:00

Yesterday's sudden boost in equity markets world-wide has helped drive many of the riskier currencies, such as the EUR and GBP, higher versus their primary currency rivals. Safe-havens such as the Dollar and Yen took a small beating yesterday as well from this news. With investor confidence on the rise in Europe, a rally for the European currencies may be overdue. This in turn could also push commodity prices higher in the short-term.

USD - Dollar Plummets on U.S. Equity Market Rally

The Dollar fell during much of Tuesday's trading against a number of its major currency pairs, as U.S., European and Japanese equities rallied. This was partially sparked by a sharp increase in German investor confidence, and better than forecast earnings from top U.S. companies such as Target and Home Depot. Demand for the greenback slumped versus a number of major currencies in early trading, as the rally in equities led to a fall in demand for safe-haven assets.

The USD declined against the British Pound by a massive 200 pips to 1.6550. This performance was owed to mounting British inflation. Against the EUR, the USD also saw much bearishness, as the EUR/USD pair slided significantly in early trading. However, this was in some senses short-lived, as U.S. Building Permits and other
weak housing data poured some demand back into the USD. Thus the
USD did make a short recovery, as the EUR/USD cross finished trading at the 1.4128 level. The USD/JPY pair finished even for the day at 94.75, as demand for these low-yielding currencies was lower yesterday.

Looking ahead to today, there is much data that is likely to determine the volatility of the forex market, and the strength of the U.S. Dollar; the most important of these being the publication of U.S. Crude Oil Inventories at 14:30 GMT. A lower figure could help push-up Oil prices, whilst putting downward pressure on the USD. The opposite result could in-turn strengthen the USD. Data from across the Atlantic, such as British CBI Industrial Orders Expectations and the Current Account publication from the Euro-Zone is also likely to have important implications for the USD in Wednesday's trading.

EUR - Pound Climbs on Higher Inflation Figures

The Pound climbed yesterday on higher inflationary figures, as the Office for National Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index was at 1.8% in July, significantly higher than the forecasted 1.5%. This proves that the Pound has been far more resilient in this economic crisis than many analysts had forecast. This led currency analysts to the conclusion that the Bank of England (BoE) may come up with a much more disciplined monetary policy in the near future.

The British currency jumped against the Dollar by 200 pips to the 1.6550 level, and the GBP/JPY pair rose by 200 pips to the 157.00 level, as demand for the lower-yielding/safe-haven JPY fell in Tuesday's trading. The GBP gained about 90 pips vs. the EUR, as the pair reached the 0.8535 level. Much of this was owed to data from Britain. Also, it proves that even the strong European economic data on Tuesday was unable to help the EUR make inroads into the GBP. The EUR/USD finished trading slightly higher near the 1.4130 level, despite making inroads into the Dollar in earlier trading.

Today, there are several economic publications that are expected to drive-up the GBP and EUR crosses. From Britain, there is the MPC Meeting Minutes and CBI Industrial Order Expectations at 08:30 GMT and 10:00 GMT respectively. From the Euro-Zone, there is the release of the German PPI figures at 06:00 GMT, and the publication of the Current Account at 08:00 GMT. These key releases are expected to set the trend for both the British and Euro-Zone currencies in today's trading. In order to make big profits today, it's advised that you open your EUR and GBP positions now.

JPY - Yen Collapses against the Pound

The Yen collapsed against the Pound on Tuesday, as the pair finished 200 pips higher at the 157.00 level. This rise in the GBP and fall in the JPY was largely due to higher than expected GDP figures from Britain. However, the JPY bearishness yesterday was also owed to global stock market rallies owed to higher than forecast earnings for a number of top U.S. companies. This reduced the demand for lower-yielding assets, such as the JPY.

The JPY actually finished trading almost unchanged against the USD, but lower vs. the EUR. There have been fears recently that the Yen may be in for a steep decline if Japan doesn't continue increasing its exports. These fears have been exasperated despite the Japanese economy officially rising out of recession in the previous quarter. The JPY is set to move today on important economic releases from Britain, the U.S. and the Euro-Zone.

Crude Oil - Crude Oil Soars to Over $72 a Barrel

The price of Crude Oil soared by about $3.25, or over 4%, to just over $72 a barrel, reversing 3 consecutive days of losses. Crude was boosted as the Dollar was bearish in much of Tuesday's trading, which increased demand for commodities. The weakened USD was caused by global stock market rallies led by the U.S. This was also caused by optimistic economic data from Germany, the largest economy of the Euro-Zone. Furthermore, the weak USD led to higher demand for riskier assets.

Oil prices may continue rising for a number of reason's in today's trading. We have seen the commodity over-sold in recent trading days. Additionally, many optimistic signs from leading and fast-growing global economies have led many investors to realize that there may be a big jump in Crude Oil demand in the near future. Additionally, as long as market optimism stays high, so will the demand for Crude Oil.

Article Source - European Currencies on the Rise along with Risk Appetite

British Pound at Center Stage as Bank of England Publishes Meeting Minutes (Euro Open)

2009-08-19T16:10:00.000+07:00

The British Pound is in focus in the European trading session as the Bank of England releases minutes from its August policy meeting when it unexpectedly boosted its quantitative easing program by 50 billion pounds. German Producer Prices are also set for release.

Key Overnight Developments

• New Zealand Wholesale Inflation Slips Again in Second Quarter
• Australian Leading Index Grew in June, Says Westpac
• N.Z. PM Key Seeks Single Market with Australia, FinMin Decries Spending

Critical Levels

The Euro yielded an effectively flat result in overnight trading having tried but failed to build upward momentum. The British Pound did inch lower however, losing its grip on the 1.6550 level to test as low as 1.6511.

Asia Session Highlights

New Zealand's Producer Prices remained flat in the three months ending June after two quarters of deflation, following a quarter which saw the largest magnitude in wholesale cost declines since the data began being recorded in 1976. On a yearly basis, input costs fell 1.2%, the first of such cost declines in more than five years. The quarterly data comes during a period in which commodities, as indicated by the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (SPGSCI) surged 25.6% following a quarter which saw the index remain flat. The interesting fact is that the SPGSCI plummeted 44% in the final three months of 2008. Thus it seems that there is a lag of about three months in the effect that commodity prices have on the cost that producers pay for raw materials. Looking further down the supply chain, output prices fell -0.7%, pointing to downward pressure on consumer prices as wholesale discounting is passed on into the final price tag and allowing the central bank some room to cut interest rates, a strategy that we have advocated previously.

On the other side of the Tasman Sea, Australia's Westpac Leading Index, which gauges the probable rate of economic activity about six months into the future, rose 0.7% in June after the previous month saw the outcome negatively revised to -0.4%. A rise of such proportions would be somewhat expected, given that the Reserve Bank of Australia revised it's growth forecast for the year up to 0.5% from a contraction -1.0% at it's August 6 meeting. Adding to these comments today, RBA Assistant Governor Malcolm Edey said that consumer confidence has returned to high levels, at a speech given at the 7th Annual Retail Financial Services Forum. Despite the optimism Edey was “wary of making any predictions,” he said. Nonetheless “in the past few months there have been encouraging signs of improvement.” The signs here referred to by the Assistant Governor must be primarily linked to the performance of equities, which have surged 27% between the start of March and the end of July. Broader economic conditions have not warranted the optimism, especially since retail sales plummeted when they were expected to actually grow, and especially after full-time jobs continued to be shed in favor of part-time ones.

Euro Session: What to Expect

German Producer Prices are expected to fall at an annual pace of -6.5% in June, the largest drop since records began in 1977. The result will foreshadow continued downward pressure on consumer prices, the headline inflation gauge, as lower wholesale costs filter down into the final price tag. The reading adds to building evidence that Germany and the Euro Zone as a whole may slip into deflation, threatening to leave the economy mired in a long-term period of stagnation as expectations of lower future prices discourage spending and investment.

The European Central Bank has thus far focused primarily on offering banks unlimited borrowing ability, including an unprecedented 442 billion euro in 12-month bank loans, in the hopes that this would be passed on to the overall economy to both stimulate growth and put a floor on prices by making money cheaper. So far, this has not worked: although interbank borrowing costs have stayed well below 0.5% for over two months, this has not filtered through into the economy at large. Indeed, loans to Euro Zone businesses and households grew just 1.5% in June, the lowest since records began in 1991. European banks have yet to come to terms with an estimated $1.1 trillion in unrealized sub-prime related losses (per the IMF), a hit that could be compounded by losses from default or devaluation in some of the newly-minted EU member states, and so may be perfectly content to sit on the money they have borrowed for the time being. The ECB has also flirted with the direct approach, putting in place a 60 billion euro bond-buying scheme. Although it is too early to tell for certain, this seems too small of a program to have any meaningful impact. The bottom line is that greater monetary easing is clearly needed if deflation is to be averted, but the central bank’s neutral posture points to either unwillingness or an inability to meaningfully anchor price expectations. While the Euro has enjoyed robust gains in the four months from the beginning of March on the back of a broad rebound in risk appetite, any return to focus on economic fundamentals could prompt a sharp a sell-off in the single currency.

In the UK, minutes from the most recent policy meeting of the Bank of England are due for release. Mervyn King and company had unexpectedly expanded their quantitative easing scheme by 50 billion pounds and left the door open to further expansion, saying its scope will remain “under review”. Up to that point, the program had largely failed to boost lending to the real economy. Indeed, loans to non-financial firms fell by a record 14.7 billion pounds while the pace of money supply growth fell for the first time in close to a decade in the second quarter. To that effect, traders will be combing through the meeting’s minutes for the rationale behind the BOE’s apparent belief that another 50 billion pounds in asset purchases will make a meaningful difference after the 125 billion pounds that have already been put to work.

Article Source - British Pound at Center Stage as Bank of England Publishes Meeting Minutes (Euro Open)

New NFA Regulations

2009-08-19T09:47:00.000+07:00

If you're an active Forex trader, then I have some important news for you. On August 3, 2009, the National Futures Association (NFA) issued new regulations that restrict many aspects of profitable Forex trading. Those new rules and regs can put a real damper on your Forex trading future if you don't understand what they mean and how they affect your trading.

New NFA Regulations

Therefore, we thought it was crucial to get this information out to you as soon as possible. I know it's short notice, but we're going to hold a webinar at 8:00 PM EST TONIGHT to explain the ramifications of the new rules, exactly what they mean, and some possible solutions to work within the new guidelines and still maintain good gains in the Forex market. The webinar will be lead by Josh Lampel of Global Futures.If you trade the Forex and don't understand (or were not aware of) the new NFA FIFO rules, then you need to attend this webinar. Here's the registration page again for more information and to register for this important webinar:

New NFA Regulations

Trade Smart. Not Often.
Brett Fogle, President
OU Forex Trader

Greenback Trades Lower Ahead of the U.S Housing Starts Report

2009-08-18T19:08:00.000+07:00

The U.S dollar came slightly off highs against major counterparts on Monday, after a report that showed improved manufacturing conditions in the New York region in August. The Dollar earlier received a boost as commodities sold off following a sharp drop in Chinese equities overnight. Today the greenback declined before the Commerce Department reports housing data at 12:30 GMT on speculation the U.S recession probably eased further. The impact of a stronger- then-expected number will be positive from a risk point of view, analysts said, hence reducing demand for the dollar as a refuge.

USD - Dollar Gained from Drop in Equities However the Correction Is Imminent

Yesterday's trading experienced a moderate level of bullishness for the USD with the sudden weakness in equity markets bringing back a level of risk aversion. Expectations for a bearish Dollar in the optimistic environment that emerged at the start of this month have now begun to dwindle as stock markets continue to get squeezed. The safety of currencies such as the USD and JPY has grown throughout the beginning of this trading week.

Climbing as high as 1.4048 against the EUR, and as high as the 1.6275 price level against the Pound, the greenback is finally starting to show signs of bearishness after a long day of upward trading. Market fundamentals may have less to do with today's early morning movement, however, as economic data shows a continuation of yesterday's trends. A technical correction is underway, but data releases expected at the opening of European and American markets should drive some volatility in today's trading.

The opening of the European markets will reveal consumer sentiment in Germany and the Euro-Zone in the form of the ZEW sentiment reports at 9:00 GMT today, while the US markets will release data concerning inflation and the number of building permits issued last month for the construction of new homes. These will mark the important calendar events for today and traders should be on guard for further USD depreciation if a market correction is indeed underway.

EUR - EUR Dampened from Risk Aversion; ZEW Report on Tap

After the recent drop in equities, the EUR has fallen off its latest gains against its primary currency counterparts. While still holding above the 1.40 level against the USD, the EUR was nevertheless trading at a two-week low versus the greenback yesterday. On the other hand, the EUR continued to out-perform the British Pound, climbing as high as 0.8645 before the opening of European markets yesterday. Versus the Yen, the EUR also suffered a set-back from equity losses, trading as low as 132.50.

On the positive side, Euro-Zone exports have risen, signaling growth in the troubled region and pointing to future appreciation for the EUR against most of its rivals. However, the demand for riskier assets took a beating yesterday after the sharp fall in global stock markets. Most information regarding the 16-nation currency this week point to sharp movements in both directions following individual data releases. EUR traders should anticipate the heavy news week ahead and prepare for volatility.

Being released today at 9:00 GMT are the ever-important ZEW economic sentiment reports from Germany and the Euro-Zone. Both reports are expected to show an increase from the previous reading, while remaining below the significant 50.0 mark. This sends the mixed signal of demonstrating growth in optimism, but a modicum of hesitation about market strength as well. British inflationary data may also generate volatility for the GBP, but traders should focus more closely on the ZEW reports as these will drive today's market.

JPY - JPY Correction Due, European Confidence Deciding Factor

As one of yesterday's leading currencies following the sharp drop in equity markets worldwide, the JPY is now experiencing a distinct technical correction. Whether this recent downward move will sustain itself may depend largely on the data releases at the opening of the European and US markets for each of the Yen's currency rivals individually.

Climbing as high as 94.20 against the USD, 132.50 against the EUR, and 153.50 versus the Pound, things now appeared to have reversed ever since this morning's trading witnessed a sharply declining JPY opposite these leading currency rivals. If market optimism is shown to have increased in Europe following the ZEW sentiment reports at 9:00 GMT, the JPY could continue to see sharp losses versus its rivals as risk aversion begins to abate.

Crude Oil - Oil Slumps below $68 a Barrel, but Returning to Bullishness

After last Friday's surge above $73 a barrel, Crude Oil now trades near the $69 price level with a few bullish signals being provided by the market. Yesterday's drop in equities, and subsequent boost in the value of the USD, helped drive oil prices below $70 a barrel, but this morning's rally in risk appetite is proving positive for commodity prices. Since the start of today's trading, Crude Oil has climbed over $1.00 and continues to experience bullishness.

With European consumer sentiment reports expected, there is the possibility that a growth in optimism will help rally investors to riskier assets, thus lowering the Dollar in today's trading. With the greenback losing value, Crude Oil could gain strength on the USD's behalf. Traders should be on the lookout for any signs of positive growth in the Euro-Zone as this may trigger a return to risk appetite, and a potential sell-off of USD, helping to push oil prices higher.

Article Source - Greenback Trades Lower Ahead of the U.S Housing Starts Report

Euro, British Pound Fail to Build Momentum Ahead of CPI, ZEW Releases (Euro Open)

2009-08-18T19:04:00.000+07:00

The Euro and the British Pound tried higher in Asian trading but failed to retain momentum, retreating against the US Dollar ahead of the UK Consumer Price Index and German ZEW survey of investor confidence due in European hours.

Key Overnight Developments

• RBA Weighs Risk of 'Choking' Demand If Rates Rise Too Soon
• Euro, British Pound Try Higher But Fail to Build Momentum

Critical Levels

The Euro corrected higher in Asian trading but the bulls failed to retain momentum, with the pair stalling near 1.41 ahead of the opening bell in Europe. The British Pound also tried higher to test as high as 1.6394 but reversed course late into the overnight session, yielding an effectively flat result.

Asia Session Highlights

The Reserve Bank of Australia said there is a "risk of an early tightening choking off confidence and demand prematurely" if it raises its benchmark policy rate too soon. There is some question as to whether recent improvements have been organically produced or if they have come on the back of fiscal stimulus. Indeed the bank weighed this scenario, saying that "a particular source of uncertainty was whether the recent growth in household spending was due mainly to the temporary fiscal measures," which would soon fade, or "a more general decline in risk aversion." Indeed, the bank does have a legitimate reason to worry. While Q2 spending rose by the most in nearly two years, the monthly June figure plummeted 1.4% despite expectations for an increase in retail sales of 0.5%. This downward trend is likely to continue, the bank said. In fact, their "staff liaison with retailers suggested that spending in July might be weaker than in earlier months."

The quick turnaround in rhetoric contrasts that from which RBA Chief Glenn Stevens stated at a testimony last week. In his comments, the 51-year old said that the bank would indeed raise the "emergency" level overnight cash rate once the economy began to show clear signs of recovery. More importantly, the RBA had revised it's 2009 GDP forecast significantly upward. Details released on August 7, revealed that the bank expects the Australian economy to grow by 0.5% this year - quite a contrast from the -1.0% economic contraction that had been originally anticipated. Nonetheless, the bank maintains that a strong recovery in Asia will stabilize global output. Australia's economy is still expected to grow in 2009.

Euro Session: What to Expect

July’s UK Consumer Price Index is expected to show that inflation shrank for the first month since January while the annual pace of price growth slowed to 1.5%, the lowest in over 4 years. The Bank of England has said that CPI will fall below 1% at some point in the third quarter in its quarterly inflation report published last week. From there, Mervyn King and company expect inflation to be “unusually volatile”: upward pressure is seen as past changes in energy prices drop out of year-on-year comparisons and from firms’ continued adjustments to a weaker British Pound (as compared to the peak in late 2007); meanwhile, downward pressure is seen as rising unemployment depresses wages. The central bank concluded that “inflation is more likely to be below [the 2% target level] in the medium term [than above it]”. On balance, this broad accounting of what to expect in the coming months suggests that, barring a wild deviation from the forecast, the CPI result is unlikely to prove considerably market-moving having probably been priced into the exchange rate at this point. Indeed, with interest rates already at 0.5% and a 175 billion pound quantitative easing scheme firmly in place, lending growth figures (showing the degree to which aggressive easing is filtering into the broad economy) are far more important to gauge future monetary policy than inflation data.

Turning to the continent, Germany’s ZEW Survey of investor confidence as well as the broader Euro Zone equivalent are both seen ticking higher in August, returning to levels seen in June after unexpeectedly turning lower in July. Last week, an analogous metric from the Sentix research institute ticked to the highest level in a year, with the accompanying statement saying that “the economic recovery is now being ‘discovered’ by a broader group of investors.” Still, a survey of economists polled by Bloomberg reveals that most market-watchers expect the Euro Zone to underperfrom the spectrum of industrial economies next year, so any optimism born of growing confidence that an armageddon scenario has likely been averted seems temporary at best, with European sentiment figures likely to head lower as analysts focus on questions of who will recover first.

Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Analyst with Luis Gil, DailyFX Research
Article Source - Euro, British Pound Fail to Build Momentum Ahead of CPI, ZEW Releases (Euro Open)

Empire State Manufacturing Index to Lead USD Trading

2009-08-17T17:39:00.000+07:00

The U.S. Dollar gained versus the EUR but extended losses against the JPY since Friday, after the U.S. Consumer Sentiment index unexpectedly declined in early August. The data aided the Dollar, which in many instances has tended to move in the opposite direction to its economy, due to higher risk aversion. The most important data expected today is the Empire State Manufacturing Index and TIC Long-Term Purchases from the U.S. at 12:30 GMT and 13:00 GMT. It is recommended that you open big positions in the USD's main pairs now, as market volatility builds up today.

USD - U.S Dollar Soars against the EUR and GBP

After going through the beginning of last week with falling trends, the Dollar finished last week significantly higher against most of its major currency pairs. However, against the Yen, the Dollar continued to drop, and the pair now stands at the 94.50 level.

The Dollar's bearishness at the start of last week's trading was owed to much negative U.S economic data. The Federal Budget Balance showed pessimistic, proving that the U.S. federal budget is deep in deficit. Additionally, the U.S. retail sales data was unexpectedly negative, emphasizing that U.S consumers have yet to regain their faith in their financial security. What's more, the Federal Reserve avoided hiking Interest Rates last, despite its record low. Both of these factors led to an extremely bearish USD.

The Dollar's downtrend was reversed in the latter part of last week, as the relatively positive inflation data, which was published via the Consumer Price Indices (CPI) managed to make investors bullish on the Dollar. The drop in commodities prices, such as Gold and Crude Oil, was another dominant factor responsible for USD recovery.

Looking ahead this week, much market moving data is expected from the U.S. economy. Amongst the main publications are the Building Permits and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Tuesday, and the Existing Home Sales on Friday. The Building Permits is expected to be the best figures in 8 months, and the Dollar is likely to strengthen as a result. However, the PPI is forecasted to deliver its first negative result since March. Negative inflation data could erase the Dollar's recent recovery. Traders are advised to open their USD positions now, in order to make maximum profits this week.

EUR - EUR Set For a Volatile Trading Week

The EUR saw an incredibly volatile session during last week's trading. The European currency began the week with a sharp bullish trend against the Dollar, just to lose its gains close to the weekend. The EUR saw a significant uptrend against the British Pound on the one hand, yet a sharp drop against the Yen on the other hand.

It seems that the EUR's volatility has come as a result of the mixed data form the Euro-Zone's major economies. For example, the French economy saw its first signs of recovery as the French Industrial Production rose by 0.3% in June, suggesting positive inflation. However, European Industrial Production dropped by 0.6% in June. The German Gross Domestic Product (GDP) unexpectedly rose by 0.3% in the 2nd quarter, showing that the German economy unexpectedly rose out of recession. On the downside for the EUR last week was that the European Consumer Price Index dropped by 0.7% in July, indicating that inflation is still dropping in the Euro-Zone.

As for the week ahead, a much important data is expected to be published from the Euro-Zone, which is also likely to have a great impact on EUR volatility. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment will be released on Tuesday, and analysts forecast a result of 45.2. Such an outcome is likely to boost the EUR, as this will show that the German economy is continuing to improve. Considering that the German economy is the strongest economy in the Euro-Zone, this result could have a great impact on the EUR. Traders are also advised to follow the German PPI on Wednesday as this may provide much support for the EUR this week.

JPY - Yen Rises to a 2 Week High vs. the EUR

Last week, the Yen rose against all the major currencies. The USD/JPY dropped around 300 pips to the 94.50 level. The Yen rose about 500 pips against the EUR, and saw an 800 pips rise against the Pound!

The Yen's recent uptrend is largely due to positive data from the Japanese economy. For example, the monthly Core Machinery Orders report showed a 9.7% increase, better than the 2.8% forecast. Also, late last night, Japan's Prelim GDP results showed a rise of 0.9% in the 2nd quarter, which was slightly below estimates. This led to the JPY rising to a 2 week high vs. the EUR and a basket of other currencies in early trading. This week week, the main publications that are expected from Japan are the All Industries Index on Wednesday at 04:30 GMT. Analysts forecast the result to be 0.4% as opposed to May. If the final result comes in line with forecasts, the Yen is likely to build on its recent bullishness against its major currency counterparts.

OIL - Crude Oil Plummets Below $68

Crude Oil's high volatility continues, and a barrel of oil has once again dropped below $70 in the past day, and currently stands at $67.93 in early Monday trading. Crude dropped last week on speculations that reduced demand and rising stockpiles in the U.S will lead higher supplies during the upcoming North Atlantic hurricane season. However, if the hurricane season isn't as many people expect, then the of Oil may actually plummet further.

The recent strengthening of the Dollar in the past week has also had a strong impact on Crude Oil prices. USD strength typically impacts Dollar-denominated commodities because it makes them more expensive for holders of other currencies. If the Dollar will continue to strengthen during the next few days, Crude Oil's recent dive in value may continue.

Article Source - Empire State Manufacturing Index to Lead USD Trading

Euro Drops to Key Support as Risk Aversion Hits Currency Markets (Euro Open)

2009-08-17T17:36:00.000+07:00

Japan emerged from recession in the second quarter, but much of this was due to government spending with private-sector demand continuing to dwindle. Equities in the Asian country took notice, shedding 2.57% at 00:07 EST. Euro price action lost for a second day, touching upward sloping support dating back to May 6.

Key Overnight Developments

• Japan Emerges From Recession, But Private Spending Contracts
• Foreign Direct Investment Into China Worse-Than-Expected

Critical Levels

Euro price-action reached a critical level during the opening trading session of the week. The 16-nation currency traded down to upward sloping support, dating back to May 6, against the U.S. Dollar. Action on the British Pound front saw it decline for a second day against its American counterpart, but fail to reach any critical levels.

Asia Session Highlights

The Japanese economy rose from recession, expanding in the second quarter by 0.9% and 3.7% on an annualized basis. Economists had anticipated the GDP figure to have added 1.0% to the nation's output. Nonetheless, a bit of added relief came as the contraction for the first three months of the year was reevaluated to be far better than originally estimated. Indeed the 3.8% decline in annual output was revised up to only a 3.1% slip. Despite this headlining optimistic news, there may be some reason for concern. A deeper look into the data reveals a private and consumer sector that is still at odds with the overall global economic environment. Domestic demand slipped 0.7% and private demand lost 1.3%. Most of the rise in GDP came on the back of an activist government. Public demand rose 1.2%, following at 4.7% and 2.8% expansion in the previous two quarters. It seems that the market mechanism, which is responsible for long-term and sustained economic growth is simply not functioning in a positive manner. A reliance on government spending to prop the world's fourth largest economy will only lead to higher fiscal deficits and rising yields which may continue to cripple the private sector.

Foreign direct investment into China declined for a 10th straight month, by 35.7% to $5.36 billion in the 12 months through July. Since January, FDI has declined 20.30%. Expectations for the year-to-date figure had forecast the contraction to be realized at only 16.80%. Worse-than-expected figures come after new Yuan loans plummeted 76.75% in the month of July alone, to lows last seen in November.

Euro Session: What to Expect

Swiss Retail Sales probably declined in the year through June for the second straight month after labor market weakness contributed to an already dwindling consumer demand base. Indeed, the seasonally adjusted June unemployment rate rose more than expected, by 0.3 percentage points to nearly a 4-year high of 3.8%. Such conditions probably left the public with even less free cash in their pockets to spend on various goods. To add to the downward spiral, consumer prices contracted by more than expected in July, by -0.7%. Seeing that prices are sticky, it may have taken at least one month for the decline in the previous month's spending to weigh on prices of the current period. As such a decline in prices may have been led by plummeting employment and thus dwindling consumption.

The Euro-Zone Trade Balance for June, expected to expand to the highest level since September 2007, will likely improve dramatically as anticipated. Imports from the region to the United States, the area’s largest trading partner, shot up 12.0% in June alone. China’s recent trade balance data revealed that imports from Germany, the Asian country’s largest Euro-Zone trading partner, grew 3.5% in June while shipments from Italy rose 8.0%. Much of this is likely to be reflected in the broader trade balance figure of the 16-nation area.

Written by Luis Gil, DailyFX Research
Article Source - Euro Drops to Key Support as Risk Aversion Hits Currency Markets (Euro Open)

Forex Weekly Trading Forecast - 08.17.09

2009-08-16T15:22:00.000+07:00

US Dollar: Is This the Turn Markets Have Been Waiting For?

Fundamental Outlook for US Dollar: Bullish

- US Retail Sales disappoint and the US Dollar rallies
- Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision sparks impressive US Dollar volatility
- Forex options and futures sentiment suggests USD may continue rallying

The US Dollar fell near fresh year-to-date lows versus the Euro and other major counterparts, but a sharp end-of-week reversal suggests that the downtrodden Greenback could stage a larger recovery. Impressive S&P 500 rallies played a large role in dollar weakness. A late-week US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence nonetheless proved sharply disappointing, and the key risk sentiment barometer turned notably lower into the week’s close. The strongly-correlated safe-haven US currency continues to take its cues from risky assets, and a true turnaround in stocks could herald an accelerated USD correction. We feel that a sustained US Dollar rally is almost inevitable, but timing the turn remains extremely difficult and we’ve thus far been early in our calls for Greenback strength. Increasingly one-sided sentiment nonetheless that Friday’s USD rally could be the start of a bigger move.

Limited US economic event risk in the week ahead leaves volatility expectations noticeably lower, but the dip hardly precludes short-term breakouts. Last week’s string of top-tier economic reports underlined the fact that forex traders still care about economic data, but market reactions are not always intuitive. Indeed, the dollar has frequently rallied on a number of disappointing US economic data releases. The strange dynamic owes itself to the USD’s strong link to risk sentiment and the S&P 500. When the S&P gapped lower following a clearly worse-than-forecast University of Michigan Consumer Confidence report, the US Dollar rallied sharply against the Euro and other key counterparts. If we can expect similar price action in the days ahead, US Dollar bulls should hope that domestic economic sentiment has likewise taken a turn for the worse. Recent Consumer Confidence figures suggest future consumption-linked reports may similarly disappoint.

Foreseeable highlights in the week ahead include Treasury International Capital (TICs) data, Housing Starts and Building Permits reports, and an end-of-week Existing Home Sales release. The first report may prove especially interesting to recently-skittish US Treasury Bond traders, as it will underline the health of foreign demand for US Dollar asset classes. Much was made of a “failed” US Treasury auction at the end of July, where demand for 2 and 5-year Treasury Note was sharply lower than expected. Commentators suggested that supply of US Government debt had far outstripped demand and Treasuries tumbled on the news. Recent 30-year bond auction results nonetheless showed healthy demand for long-term debt—that which is particularly susceptible to fears of excessive government deficits and creditworthiness. We here at DailyFX could not help but notice that the news coincided with the Fed’s aggressive balance sheet expansion on the week. Indeed, the Fed’s Quantitative Easing measures have explicitly purchased Treasuries and likely overstated the health of demand for US debt. The TICs report will provide a breakdown of foreign purchases and demystify the source of robust 30-year bond demand, and any signs of weakness in foreign purchases could have noteworthy effects on the US Dollar and domestic stock markets.

Prominent housing data could likewise drive volatility in the US S&P 500 and the Greenback, but results for the choppy data series are especially difficult to handicap. We will clearly keep a close eye on the S&P and other risky asset classes through upcoming trade. Whether or not the US dollar can finally stage a comeback will likely depend on the trajectory of financial risk sentiment.

Euro: How Strong is the Economic Recovery?

Fundamental Forecast for Euro: Bearish

- Germany and France unexpectedly post positive growth in the second quarter
- Investor sentiment gauge rises to a 12 month high
- Euro Zone consumer-level inflation hits a new record low

The euro was exceptionally volatile last week; but this wasn’t unusual given the pace that the rest of the currency market was running at. What was unusual though was the sharp selloff through Friday. Was this merely a sympathy move to EURUSD? Does weak inflation really have that much influence over price action? Or perhaps there are larger fundamental concerns putting pressure on the market. Though there is smattering of event risk in the week ahead; the world’s second most liquid currency will likely find its pace through the same forces that have driven the US dollar, Japanese yen and commodity bloc: risk appetite and outlook for growth.

For some fundamental traders, the euro’s tumble through the end of this past week probably comes as a surprise after the better than expected GDP numbers Thursday. Seemingly leading the western world in its slow recovery from its worst slump since WWII; Germany and France reported growth of 0.3 percent through the second quarter (against forecasts for contractions of 0.2 and 0.3 percent respectively). As the two largest member economies of the Euro Zone, this could be construed as clear evidence that the region’s recovery could surpass that of the US, UK or Japan in tempo and scope. However, such a qualification should be made with a greater breadth of analysis. The advance reading of the Euro Zone’s 2Q GDP reading (advanced because nearly half of the member economies’ readings were not yet available for inclusion) reported a smaller-than-expected contraction of 0.1 percent through the three month period; but nonetheless the fifth consecutive decline. Holding the headline numbers back from posting expansion, Italy contracted 0.5 percent and Spain reported its sharpest decline on record. In the end, everything in FX is relative; so on the whole, the modest contraction in the euro space matches the same moderating clip that the US reported. At any rate, the approaching milestone of reaching positive growth is losing its influence over fundamental traders as the evidence for a stagnate period of expansion into 2010 and beyond piles up.

Another enduring concern for traders is the stability of Europe’s financial markets. While nationalistic interests has led Germany and France to take an optimistic outlook for their respective economies and calls to work down deficits, there are many economies under the EU umbrella that are the brink of experiencing market failure. The IMF has projected Ireland’s banking system could lose as much as 35 billion euros through the coming year and some Eastern European countries are struggling to balance their economy recovery with the requirements attached to their massive loans. If there were one threat that surpassed all others, it would be the outstanding loans euro-denominated loans from the Eastern European region. During the boom years, these countries borrowed – in euros – from their western neighbors. In fact, some economies have debt in excess of 100 percent of GDP including Hungary, Bulgaria, Latvia and Estonia. As large swaths of these loans come due, the threat of default grows. It may not seem so; but stability is still fragile. A sovereign insolvency could easily catalyze a greater credit event that seizes the rest of Europe and perhaps the world.

While the bigger themes play out on the market; we will also have a few notable economic releases that can provided predictable periods of volatility. There will be two themes to follow for the week. This month’s investor sentiment readings from the ZEW surveyors is expected to benefit from recent growth reports and the extension of the capital market’s recovery through July and August. The PMI data due at the end of the week, in contrast, may have a little more lasting influence on the fundamental bearing of the euro. After the quarterly GDP numbers, these monthly figures are the next best thing to a growth report. Is the Euro Zone really heading for a stagnant recovery?

Japanese Yen Conflicted as Risk Trends Mix With Key GDP Report

Fundamental Forecast for Japanese Yen: Neutral

- Japan’s Current Account Surplus Swells as Exports Surge in June
- BOJ Leaves Rates Unchanged, Says Economic Conditions Have “Stopped Worsening”
- Corporate Goods Prices Unexpectedly Gain on Rising Import Costs

The Japanese Yen outlook looks murky in the week ahead as risk trends compete with a nominally recession-ending second quarter Gross Domestic Product report. Short term (30-day rolling) correlation studies reveal the Yen’s average value against a trade-weighted basket of top currencies is now -90.4% inversely correlated with the MSCI World Stock Index. This means that the Yen is likely to strengthen if stocks should reverse lower, an outcome that we have argued is quite likely for some weeks now. Indeed, global markets ended July trading at the highest level relative to earnings since October 2003 – a year when the global economy grew 2.7% in real terms – making them look decidedly overvalued at present considering the kind of earnings growth that can be expected in year when real World GDP is set to shrink for the first time in the postwar period. Technical positioning also looks to be hinting at a bearish turn ahead: the MSCI World metric is setting up a rising wedge bearish reversal chart formation and showing negative divergence across momentum studies.

The second-quarter Gross Domestic Product report tops the list of scheduled event risk, with expectations suggesting the world’s second economy grew 1% in the three months through June, marking the first positive outcome in a year. In annualized terms, the result is even more impressive, with forecasts pointing to a 3.9% expansion versus a record -14.2% drop in the first quarter. Government stimulus both at home and abroad likely accounted for the improvement: Prime Minister Taro Aso spent a whopping 25 trillion yen to replace sagging private-sector demand while aggressive public spending and a government-induced lending boom in China, Japan’s top trading partner, helped drive overseas sales. From a long-run perspective, the sustainability of such measures seems shaky at best as the government racks up hefty deficit and China reins on fears of a forming credit bubble. That said, the market may still get enough fuel for short-term volatility out of the release. The likely directional bias of the Yen’s response is difficult to indentify, however: intuitively, the positive GDP result seems likely to boost the currency, but the Japanese unit’s inverse correlation with risky assets may mean that the release drives stock valuations higher but send the Yen lower.

If nothing else, this week will help traders separate and rank the potency of the various factors driving Japanese Yen price action going forward, aiding in building an informed directional bias for the months ahead.

British Pound Still Reeling from QE News, UK CPI May Weigh Further

Fundamental Forecast for British Pound: Bearish

- The dovish BOE Quarterly Inflation Report impacted interest rate forecasts
- The UK claimant count rate rose to a 14-year high in July
- View our Monthly British Pound Exchange Rate Forecast

The past week of price action for the British pound marked little more than a period of consolidation, though the currency did lose against every major except the Canadian dollar. From a technical perspective, GBPUSD remains above a rising trendline at 1.6450 connecting the July and August lows, and a break lower would open the door to 1.6200. Ultimately, macroeconomic factors are working against the British pound, as conditions have yet to show any signs of improvement despite the Bank of England’s aggressive rate cuts and quantitative easing (QE) program. That said, the BOE’s decision to expand their QE program to 175 billion pounds on August 6 may have done more harm than good, as the original 125 billion pounds had little to no impact on lending and money supply and throwing another 50 billion pounds at the problem may not do the trick either. Indeed, since the August 6 announcement, the British pound has fallen 2 percent against the Japanese yen and by 1.45 percent versus the US dollar.

Looking ahead to this coming week, there will be a flurry of UK economic reports but only two may have a substantial impact. First, the UK’s consumer price index (CPI) reading for the month of July is expected to fall for the first time in six months at a rate of -0.3 percent. This may lead the annual rate of growth, which is more closely watched by the BOE, is forecasted to fall to 1.5 percent, the lowest since November 2004, from 1.8 percent, keeping inflation within the central bank’s acceptable range of 1 percent - 3 percent, but below their 2 percent target. If CPI falls more than projected, the British pound could pull back sharply as the markets will anticipate that the BOE will expand their quantitative easing efforts even further before year-end. On the other hand, if CPI holds strong, the currency could rally in response.

Then, on Wednesday, the minutes from the BOE’s last meeting will hit the wires. Since the central bank’s August 6 policy statement and August 12 Quarterly Inflation Report have already revealed their dovish bias and dour outlooks, the minutes may not shake up the British pound too much. Nevertheless, signs that the BOE may seek to add to the QE program later in year could hit the UK’s national currency hard.

Written by David Rodriguez, John Kicklighter, Terri Belkas, Ilya Spivak, John Rivera and David Song, Currency Analysts
Article Source - Forex Weekly Trading Forecast - 08.17.09

Dollar Anticipates Release of U.S. Core CPI

2009-08-14T20:31:00.000+07:00

The U.S. Dollar anticipates the release of U.S. Core CPI at 12:30 GMT. The reason this publication is so important is due to it being a leading measure of U.S. economic growth and inflation. A positive figure is likely to help the USD gain strength throughout today's trading. The USD will also be affected by its yesterday's bearishness, as there may be a slight correction in the greenback. Traders should open their USD positions now in order to make maximum profits from end-of-week trading.

USD - USD Slides on Poor Economic Data

During yesterday's trading, the Dollar dropped against all the major currencies. The Dollar dropped as much as 100 pips at one point against the EUR on Thursday, and saw bearish trends against the Pound and the Yen as well.

The Dollar weakened yesterday as a result of series of negative economic data releases. The U.S Retails Sales unexpectedly dropped by 0.1% in July, failing to reach expectations to rise by 1.8%. The U.S Core Retails Sales dropped by 0.6% in July too. The difference between the two reports is that the core report measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles, due to the high volatility of automobile sales. The fact that both indices showed negative figures proves that American consumers are still cautious regarding their expenses, lacking the confidence that the worst of the recession is behind us

The other important release that helped push down the Dollar on Thursday was the weekly Unemployment Claims report which showed that 558,000 individuals filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. Both the negative Retails Sales data and the poor employment figures showed that the U.S economy is yet to pull out of recession, and thus the Dollar weakened as the trading day progressed.

Looking ahead to today, the leading data seems to be the Consumer Price Indices (CPI). The CPI measures the change in price of goods and services purchased by consumers, and thus act as a leading inflation gauge. Traders are advised to focus their attention on the Core CPI report, which excludes food and energy prices, as it tends to deliver a more reliable figure. Current forecasts suggest that prices have stayed quite stable during July. It appears that if the actual result will be similar or slightly better, it may correct some of yesterday's losses for the Dollar. However, in case of a worse-than-expected result, the Dollar is likely to continue tumbling.

EUR - EUR Soars on Positive GDP Figures

The EUR saw a volatile trading session yesterday. The EUR rose significantly higher against the Dollar, as the EUR/USD reached the 1.4300 level. However, the EUR saw mixed results against both the Yen and the Pound.

It appears that the EUR's appreciation came as a result of the better-than-expected economic data. The German Preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) unexpectedly rose by 0.3% in the 2nd quarter. The GDP report measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. The positive result generated speculations that the German economy is recovering sooner then expected, as many analysts wrongly forecast that the German economy will only pull out of recession by the middle of 2010.

Later on in Thursday's trading day, the European Flash GDP was released, showing that the Euro-Zone's GDP dropped by 0.1% during the 2nd quarter, beating expectations for a 0.5% slide. The better-than-expected figures created the sensation that the Euro-Zone economy is following the U.S optimism which we have seen in the past 2 months that the recession will end sooner than expected. As a result, this has strengthened the EUR.

As for today, a batch of data is expected from the European economies. The French Preliminary Non-Farm Payrolls will be released, and analysts forecast that 0.7% people have lost their jobs during the previous quarter in France. The European Consumer Prices Indices are also expected today, and are predicted to deliver mixed results. It currently seems that if the actual results will be similar to forecasts, the EUR may drop slightly due to the overall negative figures.

JPY - Yen Rises on Asian Equity Rally

The JPY started yesterday's trading with bullish trends against all the major currencies. The Yen continued to rise against the Dollar, yet later on lost gains against the EUR and the Pound. The Yen soared against the major pairs as a rally in Asian stocks spurred demand for higher-yielding assets. The Bank of Japan stated yesterday that Japan's economic conditions have stopped worsening, and are likely to turn upward over time. This created positive sentiment which was reflected in Asian stock markets, and was followed by a strengthening Yen.

Yesterday, the Tertiary Industry Activity report showed that the total value of services purchased by business rose by 0.1% in June. This is another indication that Japanese consumers feel safer to enlarge their expenses, which means that the general sentiment is that the economy is doing better. Looking ahead to today, no significant data is expected from the Japanese economy. Traders should mainly focus on the major data releases from the U.S economy, as this is likely set the tone for today's trading.

Crude Oil - Crude Oil Eyes $73 a Barrel

Crude Oil continued to rise yesterday, marking the second consecutive day of rising prices. A barrel of Crude Oil rose to over $72 during yesterday's trading session, and now eyes $73 a barrel. Crude was helped by a weak USD Dollar, as the commodity is valued in Dollars, and thus a drop of the Dollar against the major currencies is usually followed by a rise in commodities prices, especially Oil.

The rise in Crude Oil and the weak USD was largely due U.S equities rallying to a 10-month high, and the German and French economies delivering better than expected data. What seems to be an early recovery for the leading western economies has sparked optimism for a rebound in fuel demand. It currently seems that every positive economic figure from the U.S or the Euro-Zone may spark an appreciation in Oil prices, as expectations for higher fuel demand are constantly growing.

Article Source - Dollar Anticipates Release of U.S. Core CPI

Australia Readies to Raise Interest Rates, Says Central Bank Chief (Euro Open)

2009-08-14T20:29:00.000+07:00

Asia session trading saw Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens use sharper rhetoric in discussing the certainty of lifting the overnight cash rate from “emergency” levels. This comes just hours before CPI data from half-way around the world, is expected to point toward deflation. Unexpected growth in the Euro-Zone, however, may derail this estimate and may cause inflation to actually publish in positive territory.

Key Overnight Developments

• RBA’s Stevens Conjures ‘Emergency’ Rate Increase Speculation
• New Zealand Retail Sales Unexpectedly Gain in June
• Some Bank of Japan Members Wanted to Extend Program

Critical Levels

Pound traders eased into the Asian session after a volatile U.S. session sent Sterling bouncing between pivot support and resistance against the Dollar. Euro price action, at the time of this publication, was set to end its five day winning streak against the greenback.

Asia Session Highlights

New Zealand Retail Sales rose 0.1% in June, much stronger than the anticipated 0.3% contractionary figure. Despite a continued growth, spending gains still performed weaker than in the previous month. The previous period may have been a simple green shoot as the figure happened to be the strongest of such in 12 months. Spending in the three months ending June, however, saw the first gain in retail sales in seven quarters. Such activity occurred in a period in which wages grew by the slowest pace in 10 years, adding to speculation that much of this spree has been led by cash handouts implemented by the New Zealand government. Additionally, it does seem odd that a turnaround of this magnitude could occur at such a rapid pace; the previous quarter's sales figure contracted 2.7%. As the market mechanism kicks in again and the government's cash handouts are phased from the metric, labor market weakness will regain the reigns. Keep in mind that the country's Finance Minister, Bill English, stated two weeks ago that the administration expects the unemployment rate to continue rising for quite some time.

Minutes of the July 14-15 meeting of the Bank of Japan revealed that they will extend purchases of corporate debt and asset-backed paper by there additional months, until December 31. Despite economic conditions which have "stopped worsening" there are still some key companies that are lacking the credit to stay afloat. "Another extension might become necessary if the bank's judgment was that the situation had not improved sufficiently," some board members added." An extension of such alternative methods of monetary easing would be welcomed in the country which has, in June, seen retail sales plummet significantly more than forecast and the unemployment rate rise more than anticipated.

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said that the bank will raise it's "emergency" level overnight cash rate as the economy recovers from recession. At his half-yearly testimony given to parliament's finance committee, the 51-year old head of the RBA said "there will come a time when the exceptional monetary stimulus in place at present will no longer be needed." The hawkishly sharper rhetoric is a stark change from that which was given in the minute of their meeting five weeks ago. Perhaps the RBA is playing a game of chicken - at their latest meeting they revised their 2009 growth estimate up to 0.5% from a contraction of -1.0%. But it seems as though the market didn't buy it.

Euro Session: What to Expect

Euro-Zone Consumer Prices in July are expected to have shrunk for the first time since the start of the year on a monthly basis. Looking at the figure on a year-over-year basis, prices have been trending downward as last summer’s oil-based inflation continues to be phased out of the yearly number. But this next piece of data might be a bit better than the Bloomberg consensus would have one believe. Just yesterday it was announced that German and French GDP had unexpectedly grown in the second quarter of the year. On a broader-spectrum, the Euro-Zone economy contracted at a slower pace than estimates had originally figured. Much of this may have been due to labor conditions which had improved. Spain, the country in the area with the largest amount of job losses in the last year, had to revise their joblessness rate down. As such, the fact that there are additional laborers employed may raise inflationary pressures as the dwindling number of free workers declines. Although this may seem logical in theory, wages are sticky and take some time to adjust to an equilibrium level of supply and demand. Furthermore, if there was indeed a greater level of free cash floating in the pockets of ordinary citizens, it would have made sense for consumer spending to have risen. Unfortunately, June saw retail sales decline 0.2% when forecasts calls for a rise of 0.3% in the figure. The two contradictory indicators lead to some confusion. Nonetheless, unexpected growth will likely weigh in some for or another.

Written by Luis Gil, DailyFX Research
Article Source - Australia Readies to Raise Interest Rates, Says Central Bank Chief (Euro Open)

USD Setback Could Change Course Following Today's Retail Sales

2009-08-14T02:11:00.000+07:00

After suffering a mild setback following the release of yesterday's Federal Funds Rate policy statement, the USD now seems poised for a come-back. At the opening of the US market today at 12:30 GMT, traders will catch a glimpse of US retail sales and unemployment claims which are both expected to show a continuation of growth in the United States helping the USD regain some of yesterday's losses.

USD - Dollar Down on All Fronts Except JPY Following Fed Statement

The U.S. Dollar trimmed earlier losses against major counterparts on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve left Interest Rates unchanged, near zero percent. The Dollar pared earlier losses versus the EUR in the first 20 minutes after the Fed's statement on optimism that the end of the purchase program would reduce the risk of inflation, which erodes the purchasing power of the greenback. However, the USD resumed its decline afterwards as stocks gained.

Against the Japanese yen the U.S. Dollar kept broad gains after the Federal Reserve painted a less gloomy outlook for the U.S. economy, an assessment that led investors to return to commodity-linked currencies in droves. The Federal Reserve has also said it would slow the pace at which it buys Treasuries by extending the duration, but not the size, of its $300 billion program to buy long-term government securities.

Analysts have said that while sentiment toward riskier assets has improved, there was a general degree of caution on the Fed's move to extend the time-frame of asset purchases as it indicated that the economy was still vulnerable. Today, forex traders will catch a glimpse into US Retail Sales and the weekly unemployment claims report. If sales continue to grow in the US, as is forecast, the USD may be capable of going bullish later in the day.

EUR - The Sterling Remains under Downward Pressure

The European currency gained for a 3rd consecutive day against the U.S Dollar before the European Union's statistics office releases its 2nd quarter Gross Domestic Product numbers in Luxembourg. GDP in the 16-nation Euro-Zone shrank 0.5% after a 2.5% contraction in the 1st quarter, according to economist predictions.

The EUR also advanced against 13 of the 16 major currencies before the release of a U.S. report that may show retail sales gaining for a third straight month, prompting investors to seek higher-yielding assets.

The British currency had weakened yesterday ahead of the release of the Bank of England's (BOE) quarterly inflation report. The Pound fell against the Dollar after the BOE said it may miss its inflation target amid a slow recovery. Fear of undershooting the target means the central bank is more likely to hold off on increasing rates, analysts have said.

Britain's currency also dropped versus the Yen after the central bank's governor said it was more likely that inflation will slow below 1% this year and unemployment may reach a 14-year high.

JPY - Yen Falls on Low Safe-Haven Demand

The Yen fell for a 2nd consecutive day against the EUR after the Federal Reserve said economic activity is leveling out, sapping demand for Japan's currency as a refuge. The Yen depreciated to as low as 96.23 from 95.51 vs. the US Dollar at the close of Tokyo stock trading. A weaker domestic currency increases the value of overseas sales at Japanese companies when repatriated.

The JPY also weakened against all 16 major currencies as Asian stocks extended a U.S. equity rally on signs the global slump is abating, encouraging investors to buy higher-yielding securities. For today, most attention will be paid to the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) following the evening release of its retail sales reports. With a recently bullish NZD, this report has the potential of creating a reversal to this trend if it comes out worse than forecast.

Crude Oil - Oil Prices Rebound above $70 a Barrel

Crude Oil ended higher Wednesday as a rally on Wall Street and sudden Dollar weakness overshadowed government data showing a bigger-than-expected rise in crude supplies. While the fundamental picture is bearish, Crude is being supported by a weaker U.S Dollar and stronger equity markets. Traders appeared to shrug off government data showing a build-up in crude supplies. Oil's strength came despite a report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showing U.S. Crude Oil Inventories rose 2.5 million barrels in the week to August 7, well over analysts' expectations.

Oil trimmed gains after the U.S. Federal Reserve in its policy statement said the U.S. economy is leveling out and that it was extending purchases of long-term U.S. Treasury debt to the end of October. Crude also rose as the International Energy Agency (IEA) boosted its oil-demand outlook for this year and next. In its report yesterday, the IEA said that the world will need 85.25 million barrels of oil a day next year, 70,000 barrels more than previously estimated.

Article Source - USD Setback Could Change Course Following Today's Retail Sales

Euro-Zone Economic Contraction Set to Ease (Euro Open)

2009-08-14T02:05:00.000+07:00

The growth rate of the Euro-Zone economy will be highly watched tomorrow and is likely to shake markets if the published number deviates from expectations. Contractionary conditions might not actually be as bad as originally thought after Spain, the country with the worst jobless rate, had to revise its unemployment rate down.

Key Overnight Developments

• Australian Inflation Expectations Highest Since October
• Moody’s Holds ‘Negative’ Outlook on N.Z. Banks
• Wages in Australia Grow at 4-Year High

Critical Levels

Sterling price action against the Dollar consolidated during Asian trading after having touched both our identified support and resistance levels. The Euro played it similarly and even broke through pivot support for a brief moment before continuing up toward our ceiling at 1.4161, coming only 29 pips shy.

Asia Session Highlights

A Moody's research article continued to hold a "negative" outlook for New Zealand’s banking system. "Impairment levels have risen noticeably so far in fiscal 2009...thereby reducing net profit growth and internal capital generation capabilities" said Marina Ip, assistant vice president at Moody's Australia. The unwanted news comes just four weeks after Fitch, another major ratings agency, slashed New Zealand's sovereign debt-rating outlook to "negative." In that report, the agency cited the high level of dependence that the country has on short-term financing from abroad as reason for the caution. The credit outlook for both the public and private sectors in New Zealand remains weak. Yields are likely to remain high. On Monday, the country's 10-year government bond yield rose to the highest level since the end of June. Such tight-money conditions might make it tough for the country to grow organically.

Australians expect the highest level of inflation since October, after gasoline rose to $1.50 per liter, or $6.40 per gallon and average weekly wages grew at the greatest pace since August 2005. Although it is true that an upward trend in the rate of wage growth may lead to a general rise in consumer prices, the anticipated 3.5% inflation rate might not necessarily become a realized threat. The 6.1% growth in pay through May substantially overshot forecasts, which called for figure to rise by only 5.3%. On one hand, this startling trend may induce wage-led inflation. On the other, it may not. The data does not include the wages of part-time workers. Keep in mind that since last summer, the number of full-time positions that were lost was replaced by almost the same amount of part-time ones created. This means that since the data only represents those who are working complete shifts it does not get weighed down by the downward wage pressure generally thrust upon part-timers. But the public does have some reason to believe the price of living will jump ahead. At its latest meeting, the RBA revised its growth forecast for 2009 significantly upward. The bank actually believes that their economy will expand by 0.5% - quite a stark difference from the 1.0% contraction which they had originally anticipated. It will be a tough call to predict. But in the mean time wages of all workers might continue to slow in gains, easing the pressure on overall inflation.

Euro Session: What to Expect

The economies of Germany, France and, more importantly, the Euro-Zone are expected to have continued shrinking during the second quarter of 2009. Contraction rates for each area are, however, clearly expected to fair better than the period prior. Such optimism may be coming on the back of a lagged monetary transmission system, which saw the European Central Bank slash it’s overnight policy rate by 2.75 percentage points in the six months leading up to March and another half-point in May. The ECB also took unprecedented action last month when it injected 442.2 billion Euros into the zone’s banking system. These stimulative efforts, aimed at kickstarting the economy or at least at easing the pain, may have done just that – at least in the final part of the period. June saw the Euro-Zone unemployment rate actually come in 0.3 percentage points under expectations to 9.4% and the May figure revised down 0.2 percentage points to 9.2%. Much of this June error came after Spain, the Euro-Zone country with the largest amount of job losses in the last year, revised their rate of unemployment downward. Some of this liquidity easing must be trickling down if even the country with the weakest labor market finds itself doing better than initially expected. While the joblessness situation does seem to be softening, the Euro-Zone economy probably continued to decline – but only at a slower pace than many may be expecting, it may seem.

Switzerland’s June Producer and Import Prices are expected top have risen by the largest monthly amount since July 2008. With the trade-weighted Franc exchange rate in May falling by the largest percentage amount since January, it may come to be that the country’s import prices will be reflected by such deterioration in the Swiss purchasing power abroad. On the contrary, trade data for June showed that the nominal value of imports rose by 2.5% while the real value rose even more, by 3.8%. In any case where the real value of a price variable exceeds that of the nominal one it is because the cost declined.

Written by Luis Gil, DailyFX Research
Article Source - Euro-Zone Economic Contraction Set to Ease (Euro Open)

JPY This Week's Lead Investment; US Federal Funds Rate Today!

2009-08-13T03:52:00.000+07:00

During yesterday's trading, the Yen continued to be the dominant currency in the forex market. Whilst most of the major currencies tended to fluctuate without marking a sustained trend, the JPY strengthened on all fronts, and currently looks to be this week's top investment. During today's trading, the most fascinating data will come at 18:15 GMT, as the Federal Funds Rate for August will be announced. The main question is whether the Fed will hike rates in light of recent positive economic data. Such a turn of events could create mayhem in the market, and traders are advised to be prepared.

USD - USD Sees Mixed Trading Ahead of FOMC Statement

The Dollar experienced a mixed trading day Tuesday ahead of today's FOMC meeting, continuing its rally against its commodity based counterparts while slipping slightly against the EUR and dropping sharply against the Yen. The Dollar traded at 95.80 Yen early this morning, from 95.99 yesterday, after falling 1.2%. The U.S. currency was at $1.4161 per EUR from $1.4149 yesterday.

The highly anticipated FOMC meeting statement is due to be released today at 18:15 GMT. Breaking with its trend throughout the recession, the Dollar unexpectedly rose Friday following a surprisingly strong U.S employment data release. This was seen as a signal that the recession is coming to an end and the Dollar might start benefiting from positive U.S data. This statement will be the first test of whether this trend will persist and the Dollar's strength can be maintained on positive economic data.

While no interest rate changes are expected, any clues as to the progress or end of the quantitative easing program will likely cause great market volatility. The statement is expected to provide an assessment of the current economic condition in the world's largest economy and more importantly provide an economic outlook, therefore, likely setting short-term direction for the USD.

EUR - EUR Continues its Decline against the Yen

The EUR continues to decline versus the Yen pushing its loss to 1.9%. The decline was exacerbated after consumer prices in Germany posted their first annual decline in more than 22 years in July, boosting speculations the European Central Bank (ECB) will keep interest rates at a record low. The EUR was at $1.4154 from $1.4142 late Monday and was at 135.74 yen, down from 137.32.

The Pound continues its decline against the Dollar, reaching a low of $1.6476. Pushing down on the Pound was a worse then expected trade balance as well as falling stock markets, prompted by declines in financial stocks. With the financial sector being the largest sector in the British economy, equity market movements tend to have major affects on the GBP's value. Furthermore, investors are staying cautious ahead of today's BOE inflation statement.

A heavy news day is expected today from the U.K which will likely set the direction for the Pound for the rest of the week with the Claimant Count Change to be released at 8:30 GMT along with the Average Earnings Index and the BOE Inflation statement. at 9:30 GMT. These will provide an assessment of the current economic conditions in the U.K as well as provide an outlook on the prospects of recovery. The Euro-Zone Industrial Production report is also due to be released at 9:00 GMT, worse than expected results will likely put further downward pressure on the EUR.

JPY - The JPY Gains against all Major Currencies

The JPY traded at its highest level in a week against the EUR yesterday on concern the improvement in financial companies' earnings will stall. The Yen traded at 135.82 per EUR early today, following a 1.1% gain yesterday. Japan's currency traded at 95.96 per USD and 158.17 against the Pound, both up from yesterday's figures.

Disappointing Chinese economic data and dropping stock prices on global exchanges soured risk appetite. Expectations that the Japanese economy will pull out of the recession ahead of the U.S have also helped push up the JPY against the greenback as investors turned to Japanese assets.

With no major news releases from Japan today, the Yen's short term direction will likely be set by the news coming from the U.S and Europe, mainly the FOMC statement minutes.

Crude Oil - Crude Falls below $70 a Barrel

Light Sweet Crude for September delivery settled down $1.15, or 1.6%, at $69.45 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) yesterday as U.S. equities dropped ahead of a government report forecasting an increase in crude supplies in the biggest energy consuming nation. This was the lowest settlement since July 31. It was the fourth straight daily decline and the first time oil settled below $70 this month.

While global economic recovery is impending, demand is still contracting sharply, collapsing faster than anyone expected. Traders should follow today's release of U.S Crude Oil inventories as any bearish number could prompt a further decline in prices.

Article Source - JPY This Week's Lead Investment; US Federal Funds Rate Today!

Is It Bottom for EUR/USD for this week ?

2009-08-12T00:12:00.000+07:00

12:06 AM (GMT+7)

Dollar light agains Euro today, range move very tight. It can't break previous day low and now seems like it will move up, try to 1.4235 ( this is my opinion). EMA 20 already through EMA 66 but EMA 5 shows price too week to move down, and getting curved up, nearest support should yesterday low at 1.4104, break it would bring EUR/USD deeper to 1.3973. Meanwhile, upper movement will meet barrier at 1.4209 - 1.4235 and strong resistant should at 1.4273 and resistant that hold bullih trend on TF 4 Hour should be 1.4448.

On Time Frame 1 H, RSI already moved above 50, Parabolic SAR already make a sign for begining bullish trend, EMA 5(blue)almost cross up EMA 20 (green) and I don't want to wait because smaller TF already comfirm.

I take one BUY at 1.4166, I put SL at 1.4102 and I let it with open target, if next movement give me more signal to hold and comfirm EUR/USD already bottomed this week I might aim at 1.4326 as my first target.

But this just my plan, market is dynamic and it might change my mind latter

Rising Unemployment Affects Canada’s Dollar Performance

2009-08-11T16:33:00.000+07:00

The U.S. dollar pared most of this week’s losses versus its Canadian counterpart as a report today indicated that the number of job cuts in Canada was higher than what economists predicted.
After trading at a 10-month high in the beginning of the week, the Canadian dollar reverted its winning streak and declined even further today as a government report indicated that employment figures shrank much beyond economists forecasts, making the loonie to be traded at a one-week low after the report was published. Commodities and stocks decline influenced by weaker corporate and banking earnings pushed the Canadian currency down this week, as traders fled riskier assets to seek safety in more conservative investments like bonds and currencies like the Japanese yen and the U.S. dollar.
The Canadian dollar was overpriced and today’s job data was the perfect excuse for traders to profit and make the loonie to return to more realistic levels, according to currency specialists. This week, even the Bank of Canada showed concerns regarding the loonie’s rapid rise, and today’s movement could be even be considered adequate for the Canadian economy.
USD/CAD declined sharply after the employment report being traded at 1.0836, a significant rise from yesterday’s rate of 1.0735.
If you want to comment on the Canadian dollar’s recent action or have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to reply below.

American Incomes Head Down, Threatening Recovery in Spending

2009-08-11T16:23:00.000+07:00

August 05 Household income in the U.S. is weakening as the influence of the government’s stimulus plan wanes, prompting economists, Federal Reserve officials and a Nobel laureate to warn that consumer spending may struggle.“Consumers have started to change their behavior and they are going to save more,” said Richard Berner, co-head of global economics at Morgan Stanley in New York and a former researcher at the Fed. “You have pressure on wages, you have employment still declining.”Wages and salaries, which drive recoveries in spending, fell 4.7 percent in the 12 months through June, the biggest drop since records began in 1960, according to Commerce Department figures released yesterday. The Obama administration’s tax cuts, extended jobless benefits and a one-time Social Security bonus have helped mask the damage done by the worst employment slump since the Great Depression.Personal incomes, which include interest income, dividends, rents and other payments as well as wages, tumbled 1.3 percent in June, more than forecast and the biggest drop in four years, yesterday’s Commerce report showed. Excluding the effects of the stimulus plan, June incomes would have dropped 0.1 percent after no change in May, according to the report. In May, one-time additional payments to Social Security recipients boosted incomes 1.3 percent.One of every 10 American workers will be without a job by early 2010, economists project, shaking the confidence of those still on payrolls and discouraging spending. It may take as long as 15 years for consumers to fully repair finances battered by the decline in home values, stocks and employment, said Edmund Phelps, winner of the Nobel prize in economics in 2006.Shrinking Net WorthDecreasing pay is not the only hurdle for consumers. Plunging home prices and stocks reduced household net worth by a record $13.9 trillion from the third quarter of 2007 through this year’s first quarter, according to figures from the Fed.“Households are going to have to do an awful lot of rebuilding of their wealth,” Phelps, a professor at Columbia University in New York, said this week in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “Even if that rebuilding goes on at a pretty good clip, it will take 12 or 15 years for households to get to the wealth level that they had several years ago. Consumer demand is going to take a long time to rebuild to normal levels.”In the second half, incomes and spending will be hurt by the loss of transitory factors such as lower fuel prices, decreased tax rates and the one-time payment to retirees, William Dudley, president of the Fed Bank of New York, said in a speech last week.Save More“Consumer spending is unlikely to rise much faster than income” because of the need to boost savings, he said. “Weak income growth will be an effective constraint on the pace of consumer spending.”Companies continue to trim expenses, threatening further cuts in pay and benefits. Tenneco Inc., the world’s largest maker of vehicle-exhaust systems, temporarily lowered pay and hours worked to reduce labor costs by 10 percent. Earlier this year, the Lake Forest, Illinois-based company suspended contributions to employees’ 401(k) retirement accounts and cut pay for the top 50 executives.Government assistance such as the “cash-for-clunkers” program will help postpone the inevitable increase in savings and slowdown in spending as more baby boomers approach retirement, said David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc. in Toronto.“Spending is in desperate need of gimmicks like cash-for- clunkers in order to grow on a short-term basis,” he said.Lifting Auto SalesThe program, which offers as much as $4,500 for trading in older, less fuel-efficient cars, ran through its $1 billion fund in about a week, and Congress is considering adding $2 billion. Auto industry data this week showed sales jumped to an 11.3 million annual pace last month, the highest level since September.Mounting joblessness is among reasons that economists such as Rosenberg say will prompt Americans to save more. Unemployment, already at a 26-year high of 9.5 percent in June, may top 10 percent by early next year, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg last month.Economists estimate that a Labor Department report at the end of the week will show employers cut an additional 328,000 workers from payrolls in July. That would bring the total loss of jobs since the recession began in December 2007 to 6.8 million.The savings rate in June fell to 4.6 percent as incomes dropped, yesterday’s Commerce Department report showed. The rate, which reached a 14-year high of 6.2 percent the previous month, is likely to keep climbing, Rosenberg said. A rate as high as 15 percent can’t be ruled out, he said.“This is a different consumer than we had in the past 20 years,” Rosenberg said. “People are going to increasingly be putting more money into cookie jars, rather than into buying more cookie jars.”

Dollar Bullish on Friday,Will it Continue This Week?

2009-08-10T05:10:00.000+07:00

05:14 AM (GMT +7)

Dollar strenght significant on friday, EUR/USD meet my first target and bottomed 1.4154 and closed at 1.4181. My next target should be 1.4100, but for sure I have to wait till EUR/USD give me a clear signal would dollar continue bullish or not. Time frame 4H give a signal that bearish on EUR/USD still in progress, nevertheless, from previous candle that already formed, it formed a spinning top that indicated bear power getting loss it power and might need a bounce up. My opinion supported by TF 1 H, that price already in oversold rea (RSI level 14). Possibility it will move up to 1.4238 - 1.4255. Nearest resistant that hold price turn to bullish back at 1.4273/80 if this could be through I will reconsider it and might will change my option to buy. But as long as price stay bellow, my main idea sell for EUR/USD.

So it is time for wait and see. I'm not decide what I want to do beside, this is monday morning, start of asian market would not good to determine EUR/USD direction. I will update this post soon after I make decision

TF 4H EUR/USD's Chart

TF 1H EUR/USD's Chart

UPDATE1 - 02.19 PM (GMT+7)

RSI(14) steady bellow 50, 2 bearish candle already formed evening star on friday, EMA 5(blue) through EMA 66 (red) and I think EMA 20 (green) will follow soon based on indication from Time Frame 1 Hours.

On Time frame 1 H, RSI(14) steady bellow 50, EMA 5(blue) and 20 (green) steady moved bellow EMA 66 (red) and after try to going up ema 5 failed to get through ema 20 wich mean pull back up already loss the momentum and I think it's big chance to go down, to re test 1.4154 and if steady I hope it will push lower to 1.4072.

I already take one position, sell EUR/USD at 1.4205 a fiew minutes ago, my target at 1.4100. I put stop loss at 1.4255. I will check it before London session closed

UPDATE 2 - August 11, 2009 - 02.05 AM (GMT+7)

During US session, I've got a trouble with my internet's connection. But on midnight my internet connection already fixed, and when I look at my chart, price already moved near to my target. I'm wait but is it not meet my target, it just reach 1.4104 and then EUR/USD seems like want to bounce up. I don't want to take a risk during instability internet connection so I already cut (hard exit) at 1.4131. I'm still see bearish but I will wait on next day for next strategy and for sure. For now 74 pips is not to bad for me.

summary of trading results August 2009 ( Eur/ USD )

2009-08-10T05:06:00.000+07:00

*Day 1, Date : July 06, 2009 : original position sell on market price at 1.4389, Target Hit at 1.4265.
Result: Profit : 124 pips

*Day 2, Date : July 10, 2009 : original position sell on market price at 1.4205, Hrd Exit at 1.4131.
Result: Profit : 74 pips

Try Forex Trading And Earn More

2009-08-09T16:43:00.000+07:00

Tired of Your Of Your Day Job? Have you always wanted to be your own boss, but never had the chance? Does working at home sounds appealing? If you answered yes, to all these questions, then this is probably the best time for you to try Foreign Exchange Trading.Currency Exchange or Forex has always been the place for financial investors and institutions for years. The public perception that only the wealth and wise are allowed to participate in this income generating activity. But nothing can be farther from the truth. For a couple of years now, many Americans that are considered in work from home jobs are actually into trading FOREX. Not only are they more financially secure and stable, but also they don’t have to leave their homes to earn a living.You work from home. Jobs like that doesn’t sound too bad right?This means that they can afford to have more money and not spend their hard earned cash in spending for transportation, gas and other miscellaneous expenses when going to work. They also don’t have to worry about answering to managers and supervisors that drive them crazy at work. As far as these traders are concerned, they work for themselves.You do not have to worry if you don’t understand the Foreign Exchange Market at first. It is a simple industry to understand. If you are interested in trading in the FOREX market, all you need to do is to get a reliable automated trading system on your home computer and you’re good to go. Forex Robots are there to assist and do actual trades for you even when you are not home. This certainly frees up your time to pursue other activities that you’ve always wanted.One particular system that has stirred up the trading industry is FapTurbo Forex Robot. This software was developed thru years of research and trading knowledge of a veteran forex trader. This automated trading system has started to build momentum with the numerous satisfied traders that use it to earn more in their trades. Most have double or even tripled the money that they earn in a month. Certainly, this job earns more than the average work from home jobs you may know.

Finance, Credit, Investments

2009-08-09T16:41:00.001+07:00

Scientific works in the theories of finances and credit, according to the specification of the research object, are characterized to be many-sided and many-leveled.The definition of totality of the economical relations formed in the process of formation, distribution and usage of finances, as money sources is widely spread. For example, in “the general theory of finances” there are two definitions of finances:1) “…Finances reflect economical relations, formation of the funds of money sources, in the process of distribution and redistribution of national receipts according to the distribution and usage”. This definition is given relatively to the conditions of Capitalism, when cash-commodity relations gain universal character;2) “Finances represent the formation of centralized ad decentralized money sources, economical relations relatively with the distribution and usage, which serve for fulfillment of the state functions and obligations and also provision of the conditions of the widened further production”. This definition is brought without showing the environment of its action. We share partly such explanation of finances and think expedient to make some specification.

Investing Tips

2009-08-09T16:41:00.000+07:00

The stock market should present you with a wide variety of NEW hot stocks in 2009. Many of them are going to be new technology stocks that come from the nanotech, biotech, financial, energy, healthcare & communications sectors.Most of them might seem promising, but the truth is that a good number of these trading & investing opportunities could be extremely risky, while others are simply not as good as they look. That's why it's very important to know how to choose among the best especially if you want to day trade them.When you know how to pick and approach the best hot stock trading opportunities, you are able to generate a consistent and respectable amount of money in a very short period of time.Experienced day traders recognize that trading hot stocks on momentum can be the fastest way to make money in the stock market, especially on uncertain times like these.You don't necessarily have to trade momentum hot stocks all the time. But you can learn how to take advantage of them when you encounter the best opportunities for going long or for shorting them to make money when they are poised to fall down.

Market Stuck Await For Big News

2009-08-06T06:50:00.000+07:00

06: 50 AM (GMT+7)
All pair moving on tight range awaiting for UK MPC statement and UK Official Bank Rate,and EURO minimum Bid Rate, and also tomorow The FED will shake the market with Non-Farm Employment Change,Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings wich will be the main concern all trader in the world. All moved slowly and boring. Eventhough EUR already break this week high at 1.4444 and make a new top last night at 1.4448, I don't want to take a risk stuck on the market.

My concern in Time Frame 4H does not give me the clear direction, that's also shown on time frame 1 H. I hate fundamental and this week full of big fundamentals,I just stay away on EUR/USD since it make sideaway for last fiew days.

TF 4H:

TF 1 H :

UPDATE - 06:09 PM (GMT+7)

As I said before, I see bullish but already loosing power and getting weak, and In my opinion EUR/USD need a downward for gain and collect more power to jump. Price action in Time frame 4H already touch parabolic SAR and EMA 20, and EMA 5 alredy curved down, this should indicated bearish will happen soon. On TF 1 H, price alreadi break EMA 20 and Parabolic SAR already formed above the candle, which mean it's bigger chance for price action push lower to EMA 250 at 1.4258, and if steady will contiue to 1.4212.

I already take one sell at 1.4389, I put SL at 1.4448 and my first target is 1.4265, and if this going to be as my view, my second target would be 1.4100

UPDATE: Friday, 07 August 2009 ( 08:27)

EUR/USD near on my target, but seems like NFP would make it higher. I'll try to keep on my plan, but for safety procedure I'm now adjusting my Stop Loss at 1.4379

What Are Forex Charts and How to Read Them?

2009-08-05T00:48:00.000+07:00

Forex charts are important technical tools for traders to study if they want to have a success trading transaction. This chart is the primary tool for technical analysts as practitioners to watch for patterns or noticeable abnormalities in legendary price action. This could help them in order to predict what possible move they should take in the future. If you want to become a successful Forex trader and gain more profit you should be aware of how to read the charts which is very important and quite essential factor for any trader. These charts could show a single period of time and such period could range from one minute to one month to several years.
This chart is an exact illustration and representation of the price history of a currency. With the crammed scope of monitoring and trading global currencies, the importance of Forex charts for best investor cannot be estimated over. After glancing in a few Forex Trading Charts, you may recognize that there are few or little price gaps or there are also times where there are not especially on the charts having longer terms such as 3-hour, 4-hour or daily charts. Trading cannot be considered to be as easy as we think it is. It has been done with a lot of work, discipline, patience and education. Luckily there are also sites which give new set of tools to monitor and administer your Forex Trading.
One good thing about the Forex charts which others before are using, taken in hand in stocks day trading is their easiness for interpreting and understanding. These forex charts can give an in depth look when it comes to the relation of the movements of a certain economy of a country. This may show slow faction with day to day condition which concerns with company reports, and analysts from Wall Street and the demands of shareholders. Charts can be customized depending on your choice. Charting package may also be manipulated in order to view in several different ways.
There are kinds of Forex charts that show actions in prices. These are:
• Line Chart – this is graph which is a representation of the chronological exchange rate of a certain currency pair in a given period of time.
• Bar Chart – this is a currency chart that corresponds to the currency price, which forms vertical bars in a day like ever 60 minutes or others.
• Candlestick Chart – this chart is used to predict the present market which represents opening, closing, highness and lowness of prices as candlesticks with a wick at each end.
• Point & Figure Chart – this models are essentially the same prototype found in bar charts but Xs and Os are used to market changes in price direction.
Foreign currency charts are easy to understand, especially if you are a previous stock , future trader and investors. To view the history of a price of a stock in chart form, a stock trader has to settle on the ticker symbol of the stock, the chart period (1 day, 1 hour, 15 minutes, etc.). In the forex trading market, this process of using charts is no different, with the exclusion that instead of specifying a ticker symbol, the currency trader states the currency pair he wants to trade.
There are also such types of charts as:
• Equivolume charts
• Renko charts
• Three-Line Break
• Kagi charts

Interested in FOREX Trading?

2009-08-05T00:47:00.000+07:00

The Foreign Exchange Market (Forex) has no central exchange location yet it is the largest financial market in the world. It is over 3x's the size of the stock and futures markets combined and operates via an electronic network of a banks, corporations and investors.
Foreign exchange consists of a simultaneous buying of one currency and selling of another. Currency is traded in pairs, in other words, one currency is traded for another. The major currencies are:USD — United States Dollar EUR — Euro members Euro JPY — Japan Yen GBP — Great Britian pound CHF — Switzerland franc CAD — Canadian dollar AUD — Australia dollar
There are 2 types of investors involved in the Forex market.The first type of investor is the hedger. The hedger is involved in International trades and utilizes Forex trading to protect their interest in a transaction from adverse currency fluctuations. The 2nd type of investor is the speculator who invests in currency solely for profit.
Currency prices fluctuate due to a variety of economic and political factors. The major factors are: Interest rates International trade Inflation Political stability
There are many reasons investors take a great interest in FX trading Some of the major reasons are: No fees No middlemen No fixed trade sizes Low transaction cost High liquidity Instant transactions Low margin / High leverage 24 hour market Online access via online trading platforms Always good opportunities to trade, unlike the stock market the market is never bullish or bearish. No one entity can control the market No insider trading can occur
To begin trading in the Forex market, an investor only needs a computer, a high-speed internet connection and an online trading currency account. A mini account can be opened for as little as $100.
These are some of the reasons why Forex trading has become quite popular in recent years. For more information on getting started in FX Trading visit http://www.fx-trading-guide.com/

Futures Versus Forex (Foreign Exchange Market)

2009-08-05T00:45:00.000+07:00

Todays current futures market is quite unlike the futures of the 19th century. Todays future market is a worldwide one that includes manufactured goods, financial currencies and treasury bonds, and agricultural products.
When you speculate on futures it is not the actual good that is speculated upon rather it is the contract for the goods that is traded as value. Every futures contract includes a buyer and a seller. The following is an example of a futures speculation: A farmer agrees to deliver 1000 bushels of corn to a baker at a price of $5.00 a bushel. If the daily price of corn futures falls to $4.00 a bushel, the farmer's account is credited with $1000 ($5.00 — $4.00 X 1000 bushels) and the baker's account is debited by the same amount. Futures accounts are settled every day.
Using the above as an example this is how the contract settlement would play out: If the price of corn futures is still at $4.00 the farmer will have made $1000 on the futures contract and the baker will have lost an equal amount. However, the baker can now purchase corn on the open market at $4.00 a bushel — $1000 less than the original contract, so the amount he lost on the futures contract is made up by the cheaper cost of corn. Also, the farmer must sell his corn on the open market for $4.00 a bushel, less than what he anticipated when entering the futures contract, but the profit generated by the futures contract makes up the difference.
Speculators profit by daily fluctuations in the futures market by choosing to buy from the seller (buying short) or from the buyer (buying long).
The FOREX market has advantages over the futures market. FOREX is the largest financial market in the world. It is a liquid market and stop orders can be executed more easily and with less slippage than in other markets. The FOREX market is open 5 days a week, 24 hours a day. Traders can take advantages of opportunities as they become available. FOREX transactions are usually instantly executed. FOREX transactions are commission free. Brokers earn money on the spread.
Some investors feel that due to built in safeguards that FOREX trading is safer than futures trading.

Forex Market Offers Opportunity And Information

2009-08-05T00:44:00.000+07:00

The forex market is what is called an international exchange currency market, where currencies are exchanged on a daily basis. There are five forex market centers around the world — New York, London, Tokyo, Frankfurt and Zurich. One does not need to be on the trading floor, so to speak to be involved in the forex market. Today, forex trading can be done from home on a computer.
The forex market itself is basically a worldwide connection of traders, who make investment moves based on the price of currencies, or their values relative to other currencies. These traders constantly negotiate prices with other traders resulting in the fluctuation or movement of a currency's value. The value of a currency on the forex market also corresponds with supply. If there is greater demand for the Euro, let's say, then there will be less supply of it on the forex market, which means, in time, it will make a Euro more valuable compared to let's say the dollar. In short, in this forex market situation, one Euro would yield more dollars, subsequently weakening the dollar as well. Analyzing the forex market's fluctuations allows investors to make predictions on how a currency will move in relation to another currency. They then can make predictions and buy and sell currency accordingly.
While some people view the forex market as a place to see what their exchange rate will be when they travel abroad, others view it as an opportunity to make great gains in their financial planning and future.

Reality of Online Forex Trading

2009-08-05T00:32:00.000+07:00

Foreign exchange trading is the trading of currencies. Most currencies can be traded. Huge amounts of currencies are traded 24 hours a day, 5 days a week. On average $1.9 trillion is traded a day. The most traded are United States Dollar, Japanese Yen, Euro, Canadian Dollar, British Pound Sterling, Australian Dollar and Swiss Franc.
Many brokers will let you open an account with a starting balance of just $250. Though that may seem small, remember you will be trading on margin. Your $250 investment may let you control $25,000. As with all investments there are risks so make sure you take the time to study the markets and your exposure before making your first trades. I highly recommend that you do some paper trades first to make sure you have understood how the markets work. No risk training, just write down the trades you would have done for real and chart the prices. Buy and sell and see if you have the right strategy before making real trades.
A fast internet connection will allow you to do forex trading online. Your broker will give you many online tools to allow you to study the markets: Real time quotes, news feeds:
Visit different broker's websites and compare the services they offer. Some brokers give you the possibility to open demo accounts. Do so, to test their software and find the one you like best.
Before you start trading make sure that you have learnt the terminology: Market Order, Limit Order, Stop Order. You may find the definitions of these terms and more information at http://www.forex.value-guides.com/calc-forex.html Calculating Forex Profits And Losses.
All currencies have standard identifying code used worldwide, some examples are: EUR (European euros), GBP (United Kingdom pounds), AUD (Australian dollars). Of course you don't have to know them all but it may be good to be able to recognize all the major currencies codes so that you will be able to make quick decisions.
To make sound evaluations, you need information. Follow carefully the world's current events, economic and political news. You will be surprised to see how, what may seem to you as insignificant will cause the currencies markets to fluctuate wildly.

My Performance On July 2009

2009-08-04T11:24:00.000+07:00

Day trading : 17
Number of Trade : 17
Profitable Trade : 7
Loss Trade : 9
BEP Trade : 1 pips
Amount profit : +351 pips
Amount loss : -581 pips
TOTAL LOSS : 230 pips

EUR/USD Break Strong Resistant

2009-08-04T10:50:00.000+07:00

10:51 AM

Eur/USD alredy make a rally since Thursday and break strong resistant at 1.4437 and top at 1.4444 this morning. From that EUR/USD already comfirm the bullish still continue. But I think RSI and candlesticks configuration shows EUR/USD need downward first,possibility to 1.4328 area. And support seen at Friday's High which is 1.4280.

I'm not take any position today till EUR/USD break it High today or move to 1.4328, I think this week will move with tight range regarding this is early month and market await NFP from The Fed

Euro Currency

2009-08-01T18:23:00.000+07:00

Euro has emerged as the main challenger to the dominance of US Dollar over the last decade. EU has emerged as a major global political and economic power block in recent decades. The European Union consists of fifteen member countries that include the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland and the United Kingdom.

Only 12 common currency countries out of these above 15 countries constitute the European Monetary Union (EMU). These 12 countries share a single monetary policy dictated by the European Central Bank (ECB). All these above countries share the common currency Euro except Denmark, Sweden and United Kingdom.

After the United States, EMU is the world’s second largest economic powerhouse. EMU has a highly developed and efficient fixed income, equity and the futures market. This makes EMU the second most attractive investment market for domestic and international investors. Many hedge funds are based in EU countries.

US assets have had solid returns historically. United States absorbs something like 70% of the total foreign savings as a result. In the past, the EMU had difficulty in attracting foreign direct investment or large capital inflows. The primary reason was the United States. The present global financial crisis has hurt the US and EU economies deeply. It is expected that a major restructuring of the global financial system will take place eventually that makes EMU far more attractive.

However, with the EMU beginning to incorporate even more members in Eastern Europe, Euro’s importance is expected to increase. Induction of new members will further increase the size of EMU. The capital flows to Europe is expected to increase as well.

EMU is in fact a trade driven and a capital flow driven economy. Trade is very important to the national economies within EMU. Demand for Euro is expected to continue rising with foreign central banks expected to diversify their Euro reserve holdings even further away from US Dollar. In fact Euro provides a hedge against US Dollar reserves. If the EUR/USD pair goes up, it means US Dollar is losing value and if it goes down, it means US Dollar is gaining strength.

EMU has significant power in the international trade arena because of the size of the EMU’s trade with the rest of the world. EU exports comprise almost 20% of the world trade. While EU accounts for only 17% of the world imports! Unlike United States, EMU does not have large trade deficit or surplus.

Both EU and the United States are two very important members of the World Trade organization (WTO). United States is the largest trading partner of EU. The formation of EU allows individual member countries to group as one entity and negotiates on an equal playing field with the United States. International clout is one of the primary reasons in the formation of EU.

Leading import sources for EU are China, Switzerland, United States, Japan and Russia. Leading export markets for EU are the United States, Japan, Poland, Switzerland and China.

Manufacturing, mining and utilities account for around 20% of the EU economy while services account for more than 70% of the EU economy. EU is primarily a service oriented economy. While outsourcing most of their manufacturing to Asia, large numbers of EU based companies concentrate their research, design, innovation and marketing part of the activity in EU.

Before Euro, most of the countries had to deal with individual national currencies with each having a different risk profile. Most international trade transactions involve the British Pound, the Japanese Yen and the US Dollar. It is important for most of the countries to hold large amounts of reserve currencies to reduce exchange rate risk and transaction costs.

In the past before the adoption of Euro as a single currency by EMU, it was necessary for many countries to hold large amounts of every individual European currency. As a result the currency reserves tended towards US Dollar. In 1990s, 65% of the global reserves were in US Dollar.

As EU becomes one of the major trading partners for most countries around the world, Euro will become more and more popular and this trend is expected to continue. With the introduction of Euro, foreign reserve assets are shifting in favor of Euro. Euro is in direct competition with the US Dollar as regards the market share is concerned.

The European Central Bank: Forex traders keenly watch the policy announcements of European Central Bank. The European Central Bank (ECB) comprises the Executive Board and a Governing Council. The Executive Board implements the policies made by the Governing Council. The Executive Board of ECB comprises the president, the vice president and four other members. These individuals along with the governors of the member national banks comprise the Governing Council. ECB is the governing body that determines the monetary policy for the EMU countries.

The policy meetings are biweekly. Although ECB meets biweekly and has the power to change the monetary policy in any of these meeting, it is only expected to do so where an official press conference is scheduled afterwards. New monetary policy decisions are usually taken by a majority vote. The president has the deciding vote in the event of a tie. These policy meeting are very important to watch for professional currency traders as most of the decisions announced in these meetings impact the Euro.

ECB heavily depends on the individual central banks in the implementation of its policies. ECB has a strict mandate based on inflation and deficit. ECB tries to keep the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) below 2% and M3 (money supply) annual growth below 4.5%. So, the EMU’s primary objective is price stability and growth.

ECB is supposed to coordinate its policy decisions with the respective central banks. You should understand that the ECB and the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) are independent institutions from both national governments and other EU institutions. This operational independence is granted to them as per Article 108 of the Maastricht Treaty. Without this independence, meaningful monetary policy is out of question.

There are many factors that have to be taken into consideration while setting the targets for inflation and growth. There was EMU criteria that were used as a precondition for any EU member state joining the EMU. How ECB achieves its policy targets of price stability and growth? The primary tools the ECB uses to control monetary policy are the Open Market Operations. ECB has at is disposal four categories of open market operations that it can use to manage interest rates, control liquidity and signal monetary policy stance.

Bulk of refinancing for the financial sector is done through these main refinancing operations. These refinancing operations are conducted weekly with a maturity of two weeks. These operations are regular liquidity providing reverse transactions.

In order to smooth the effects on interest rates caused by unexpected liquidity fluctuations, fine tuning operations are executed on an ad hoc basis with the aim of both managing the liquidity situation in the market and steering interest rates. Longer term refinancing operations are liquidity providing reverse transactions with a monthly frequency and a maturity of three months. These operations provide counterparties with additional long term liquidity.

Structural operations involve the issuance of debt certificates, reverse transactions and outright transactions. ECB uses these operations to adjust the structural position of the Eurosystem vis-à-vis the financial sector. The ECB minimum bid rate is the key policy target for the ECB. It is the level of borrowing that ECB offers to the central banks of its member states.

If it believes that inflation is of concern, ECB is not constrained from intervening in the forex markets. Therefore, ECB does not usually have the exchange rate target but can factor in exchange rates in its policy deliberations as exchange rate impacts price stability.

As a forex trader you should always watch the news especially if you are trading Euro cross then any news or announcement relating to ECB. ECB publishes monthly bulletin detailing analysis of economic conditions. This bulletin can give important signals to changes in the monetary policy. Forex market participants widely watch the comments by the members of the Governing Council of ECB. These comments frequently tend to move the Euro.

Euro has become the second major global currency. All major euro crosses are highly liquid and heavily traded. Now EUR/USD cross is the most liquid currency. The movements of EUR/USD currency pair are used as the primary gauge to judge the health of both European and the United States health. Since it is the US Dollar fundamentals that have dictated the movements in the EUR/USD pair from 2003-2008, Euro is also known as the anti-dollar.

As they have tight spreads, make orderly moves and rarely gap, EUR/USD and EUR/GBP are great trading currencies. EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF are very liquid pairs too and are used to judge the health of the Japanese and Swiss economies. Always remember to understand and study each currency pair in detail. Each currency pair has a unique behavior that you need to understand before you plan to trade that pair.

Euro is still a new currency. It was launched in 1999. Euro has unique risks. There are number of risks unique to the Euro. The most important is the exposure to the economic, political and social development of 15 member countries in the EU.

It could affect the stability of the entire region although more countries are expected to join EMU if a member country drops Euro and reverts back to its original national currency because it believes that ECB actions are not in its best interests.

ECB has the power to determine monetary policy for its 15 member countries. With that comes the political pressure of 15 governments. Making monetary policy is a challenging task to do for one country what to talk of a group of 15 countries. This political pressure frequently tests the actions of ECB. We can say Euro is a currency without a country.

The present global financial crisis is unlike any in the past. It is deep and may continue for some more years. It started from the sub-prime markets in the US and then spread to the rest of the world. Many big banks became the victims of this financial crisis. However, the rapid response of ECB to the present global financial crisis in the shape of deep liquidity injections has transformed its reputation. The spread between 10 year US Treasuries and 10 year bunds can indicate Euro sentiment.

As a forex trader you should know one important interest rate. It is the Euro Interbank Offer Rate (Euribor). This is the rate offered from one large bank to another on interbank term deposits. Traders and investors tend to compare the Euribor futures rate with the Eurodollars futures rate.

Lower spreads between these two interest rates make the European assets less attractive. Higher spreads between the two rates makes the European fixed income assets more attractive. Merger and Acquisition activities between US and European multinationals have important implications for EUR/USD pair. Large deals have often significant short term impact on EUR/USD if in cash.

The largest countries in EMU are Germany, France and Italy. Study of the economic data of these three large countries is also important in determining the market bias for Euro. Important indicators for Euro are Harmonized Index of Consumer prices (HICP), M3, German Unemployment, Preliminary GDP that includes France, Germany and Netherlands, German Industrial Production, Individual country budget deficit.

U.S. Dollar to Go Volatile on the Release of Advance GDP Figures

2009-08-01T01:09:00.000+07:00

The USD is set to go extremely volatile today on the release of Advance GDP figures for the 2nd quarter from the U.S. economy at 12:30 GMT. The forecasted results are -1.4%, significantly better than the 1st quarter results of -5.5%. The other things that are expected to move the market to day are the publication of the CPI Flash Estimate and the Unemployment Rate from the Euro-Zone. In order to make some big profits today, open you positions in the USD, EUR, GBP, and JPY now, as Friday's trading gets under way.

USD - USD Slides on Further Signs of Recovery

The Dollar slid yesterday, as the U.S. and global economy showed further signs of recovery. This was due to both the predictions for today's U.S. GDP figures, which show the U.S. economy declined at a much slower pace the in the 2nd quarter than the 1st, and global corporate earnings figures led to a jump in optimism. In turn, this helped spark a global stock rally, as investors took advantage of the fresh optimism to snap up higher-yielding currencies, such as the EUR and Australian Dollar.

The USD fell against the EUR by 75 pips to 1.4128. This comes about as Germany and the Euro-Zone released better than expected unemployment and consumer confidence figures. The USD also tumbled against the GBP, as Britain posted optimistic consumer confidence figures. The GBP/USD pair closed higher by 150 pips at the 1.6519 level. Against the Japanese Yen, the Dollar rose 0.5% to 95.35 Yen, extending gains after government data showed a drop in continuing claims, boosting optimism about the U.S. labor market.

Today, there is a reasonably strong possibility that much of the same behavior in the forex market will continue. This is likely to occur as traders continue to trade on Thursday's optimism. This may continue to drive the USD lower against its major currency [pairs. Also, it is advisable for traders to follow the following releases from the U.S. economy: Advance GDP and Employment Cost Index at 12:30 GMT and the Chicago PMI at 13:45 GMT. So if you want to make some bug money as end-of-week trading kicks in open your USD positions now.

EUR - EUR Rallies on Improved Global Economic Sentiment

The EUR was driven higher vs. the U.S Dollar yesterday by data showing an improvement in Euro-Zone economic sentiment in July, as well as an unexpected fall in German unemployment, which was seen as an encouraging sign for the region's recovery prospects. The European currency also gained more ground versus the Yen to hit session highs on Thursday as a sharp rally in stocks boosted risk appetite. The EUR rose as high as 134.86 Yen, and finished trading at 134.67 Yen.

The EUR rose dramatically against the USD to $1.4128, rebounding from a 2 week low near the $1.40 level. The Euro-Zone single currency briefly pared gains after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said the EUR exchange rate looks somewhat on the strong side relative to its fundamentals. According to analysts, the EUR may pare its monthly gains against the U.S Dollar today prior to reports that will show deflation deepened in the 16-nation area, and job losses increased.

The GBP leaped against the U.S. Dollar on Thursday, after a report showed British house prices climbed in July for a 3rd month. This led the British Pound to extend its gains, hitting a 4 week high against the EUR. The Pound also gained against the EUR and USD due to a report released yesterday showing British consumer confidence at its highest level since April 2008. This was yet another sign that Britain is rising out of the recession. Analysts expect much of the gains for the EUR and GBP may continue throughout today's trading.

JPY - JPY Plummets against the Major Currencies

The Japanese Yen fell against its most traded currencies on Thursday as the leading economies published a string of optimistic figures. This led to global stocks rising for a 3rd straight week, reducing demand for the relative safety of the Japanese currency. Looking at the bigger picture; positive economic data, rising stocks and better-than- expected earnings improved risk appetite, analysts said. Additionally, the improved risk appetite means that the safe-haven currencies will weaken further.

A wave of Japanese mutual funds will be launched today, keeping the Yen soft against the U.S Dollar and higher-yielding currencies, such as the Australian Dollar. But in the near term, the rush in the launching of these funds is expected to have only a limited impact, as a rally in global stocks and commodities in the past few weeks has made fund managers cautious about immediately putting money to work, many traders believe.

Crude Oil - Oil Rebounds On Market Optimism

Crude Oil rose above $67.50 a barrel on Thursday, boosted by higher stock markets in Europe and Asia, better than expected corporate results and data suggesting the economic downturn is bottoming out. The more than 5% rally yesterday, the highest gain in more than 3 months was boosted as continuing U.S. jobless claims figures improved sentiment in the energy sector. All of this is further evidence that the leading economies may rise out of recession in the coming months.

Oil may continue to gain on increased optimism that the global economic decline will ease. The number of people collecting unemployment insurance decreased for a third week, according to the U.S. Labor Department. A U.S. report yesterday showed that Crude supplies unexpectedly climbed as demand lagged behind year-earlier levels. However, this failed to drive prices lower, as the price of Crude also soared on a extremely weak USD.

Article Source - U.S. Dollar to Go Volatile on the Release of Advance GDP Figures

Euro Zone Consumer Prices to Shrink for Second Month, Boosting Deflation Risk (Euro Open)

2009-08-01T01:06:00.000+07:00

The Euro may see selling pressure emerge in the coming session as the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index shows that inflation fell for the second consecutive month in July, stoking risks of deflation that could commit the currency bloc to a long-term period of economic stagnation.

Key Overnight Developments

• Japan’s Jobless Rate Higher Than Expected, Hits Highest in 6 Years
• Australian Lending Gains Least Since September 1993, Threatening Recovery
• Japanese Inflation Shrinks Most in Over Three Decades, More Losses Likely
• PMI Shows Japanese Manufacturing Expanded for the First in 17 Months
• US Dollar Retreats as Asian Stocks Rally After Sony Corp Earnings Outperform

Critical Levels

The Euro gained 0.4% in the overnight session while the British Pound added 0.3% against the US Dollar. Both currencies advanced as the greenback came under pressure amid a rebound in risk appetite that drove Asian stock markets higher following a better-than-expected earnings report from Sony Corp., trimming demand for safety-linked assets.

Asia Session Highlights

Japan’s Consumer Price Index printed squarely in line with expectations in June, showing that annual inflation shrank at an annual pace of -1.8%, the most in at least 33 years. The Bank of Japan has reinforced expectations of negative price growth, noting that the pace of consumer price growth is likely to turn negative, reflecting the declines in the prices of petroleum products, stabilization of food prices, and overall economic weakness. Indeed, utilities and fresh food prices led declines, slipping -5.9% and -4.7% from the previous year. The operative question going forward is whether the BOJ’s aggressive monetary easing measures will make CPI’s dip into negative territory a temporary affair, or if deflation once again becomes entrenched in the world’s second-largest economy. This would substantially delay any hopes for a recovery in the near term, keeping a lid on economic activity as consumers and businesses are encouraged to wait for the best possible bargain and perpetually delay spending and investment.

Turning the labor market, Japan’s Jobless Rate jumped to 5.4% in June, the highest in 6 years, while the ratio of available jobs to seeking applications fell to 0.43, a new record low. Looking ahead, a survey of economists conducted by Bloomberg suggests the jobless rate surpassed 5% in the second quarter and will approach the 6% mark by the second half of 2010 while the Bank of Japan has said that consumption to remain weak as “the employment and income situation [is] likely to become increasingly severe”. This points to continued weakness in consumer spending as layoffs weigh on disposable incomes, a clearly on display in June’s Trade Balance and Retail Sales data. Although Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in July to mark the first time since February of last year that the sector has expanded, the improvement is unlikely to boost hiring, with industrial output gains linked to restocking of inventories rather than sustainable growth in underlying demand.

In Australia, Private Sector Credit grew at the slowest pace in nearly 16 years, adding 3.4% in the year to June. Continued contraction in lending seems to bolster the central bank’s recent assertion that the influence of changes in benchmark interest rates on bank lending rates has weakened over the past two years, suggesting monetary policy is losing potency in stimulating economic activity. A breakdown in this dynamic could prove to derail an extension of positive momentum that the Australian economy has built up in recent months of the back of generous fiscal stimulus, with growth levels retreating once again when the flow of government cash dries up.

Euro Session: What to Expect

The Euro Zone Consumer Price Index is set to show inflation fell for the second consecutive month in July, shrinking at an annual pace of -0.4%. Acute economic weakness is likely to keep prices under firm downward pressure in the months ahead. Indeed, the Euro Zone Unemployment Rate is set to rise to the highest level in over a decade at 9.7% in June, weighing on incomes and discouraging consumption, the largest contributor to GDP growth. The IMF recently forecast that the Euro Zone will stand apart from other industrialized economies in seeing GDP continue to shrink in 2010. If this dynamic sees expectations of falling prices become entrenched, the currency bloc may be facing a long-term period of stagnation as consumers and businesses are encouraged to wait for the best possible bargain and perpetually delay spending and investment.

The European Central Bank has seemingly struggled to formulate an effective policy response to the deflationary threat thus far. Jean-Claude Trichet and company have focused on banks as the vehicle through which to make money cheaper and put a floor under falling prices, promising unlimited lending to the region’s financial institutions including an unprecedented 442 billion euro in 12-month bank loans. The ECB will also implement a 60 billion bond-buying scheme. To the central bank’s credit, borrowing costs have indeed moved lower: although the ECB publicly maintains target interest rates at 1%, it has allowed the average cost of overnight lending (referred to as EONIA) to drift far below that. Indeed, borrowing in Euros has been consistently cheaper than doing so in British Pounds since late June, even though the Bank of England’s stated interest rates are substantially lower at 0.5%. However, the lower cost of credit between banks has not translated into lending, and so has offered little stimulus to the overall economy. Indeed, loans to Euro Zone businesses and households grew just 1.5% in June, the lowest since records began in 1991. Banks may be choosing to hang on to cash as a buffer against $1.1 trillion in as yet unrealized losses linked to the subprime mess, according to the IMF, as well as the fallout from looming defaults and/or devaluations among the EU’s newly-minted central European members. In any case, the door is open for traders to punish the Euro as the ECB’s inability to ensure that looser monetary conditions translate beyond the interbank market make deflation all but certain.

In Switzerland, the KOF Leading Indicator that aims to forecast GDP growth in the coming 6-9 months is expected to print at -1.45 in July, extending a rebound from the record low in April. As with most industrialized countries, the mountain nation is showing tentative signs of stabilization after the GDP shrank the most in 15 years in the first quarter. Although the metric is still in deeply in negative territory and virtually assures that the economy will suffer profound losses through 2009, the cautious moderation seen over recent months suggests that a bottom may be forming. Still, deflation remains a threat to sustainable long-term growth with consumer prices falling for four months straight since March.

Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Analyst
Article Source - Euro Zone Consumer Prices to Shrink for Second Month, Boosting Deflation Risk (Euro Open)

EUR/USD Strategies on July 31, 2009

2009-07-31T21:03:00.000+07:00

09:00 PM (GMT+7)

It's still on the track even EUR/USD in early day moving up but still in my range views. It's make a top at 1.4155, and as I said yesterday on my previous day post that I might will make averaging on EUR/USD if price move to 1.4130 area. I already add new entry, sell at 1.4147. I put SL at 1.4170 on both my short position ( my original position and my latest entry) while my target I leave it open. I will tell you why I leave it with open target latter, now I'm to bussy take care my other pair, becaouse my main pair not EUR/USD actualy, as long as I can't find EUR/USD rythm I'm still play in GBP/JPY as my main pair

UPDATE:

Wow! I finished post and after I look back at my chart, my EUR/USD already hit Stop Loss. That's realy make me upset. OK, I'm done now for EUR/USD, this month I've got nothing but red pips from EUR/USD. But I won't give up, monday it will be a new day and begining new month. I decided keep using TF 4H as my basic....

New NFA Rules And Forex Trading

2009-07-31T19:17:00.000+07:00

NEW NFA Rules will kill your forex trading.Game over for anyone trading with an NFA regulated broker... no more, no less... it is as simple as that. No doubt you have already heard about the various new NFA rules that threaten to end profitability for many forex traders...The latest batch are kicking off after the market closes this Friday and it is one of those blows that will kill any forex trader who hasn't yet been terminated by their previous directive.

What a way to end the career of so many forex traders that use NFA regulated Forex brokers.Unless you have been living on Mars, you must know about the little "favors" the NFA has done for Forex traders! It has already been a few weeks since the NFA forced their first new directive on brokers and hurt so many traders... the latest batch will become "law" after the market closes this Friday and if your trading was not killed by the last rule they implemented, it will be this time! 3 new "rules" will take you from being a potentially profitable forex trader to a certain losing forex trader:

New NFA Rule #1: No way to have long (buy) and short (sell) orders open at the same time
New NFA Rule #2: No way to open orders with StopLoss and TakeProfit levels set
New NFA Rule #3: No way to close the order(s)that YOU want to close

Ok... I would like to review each of these elements in detail. Please over this carefully since it is your money at stake here:

New NFA Rule #1: No way to have long (buy) and short (sell) orders open at the same time. This is often referred to as "hedging" and, if you listen to the NFA, is a very bad thing to do. If, however, you step back and consider things sensibly and rationally, you can see immediately that hedging is not a bad thing at all - it is actually a very useful way to operate your trading account. What this rule actually means for you is that you are no longer able to trade your account with multiple strategies on the same currency pair.

Perhaps you trade several EAs (Expert Advisors), perhaps several manual strategies, perhaps a combination of manual and automated systems. If so, it would be very common to find some strategies / EAs trading long positions and some trading short positions - until the "experts" at the NFA decided that the whole idea of trading in two directions was bad for you and banned the concept!

New NFA Rule #2: No way to open orders with StopLoss and TakeProfit levels set. One of the most fundamental aspects of trading is money management and the best way to achieve that is with correctly placed StopLoss orders to accompany each trade opened. Another important aspect of money management is being able to take a profit on an open trade. Once again, the NFA disagree with long-held principles of trading because one of their new rules (takes effect this weekend) will not allow StopLoss and TakeProfit orders to be specified... you must choose one or the other! I am sure that this little revelation will send you searching for your crystal ball so that you can accurately predict which type of order you will require before actually placing each new trade.

New NFA Rule #3: No way to close the order(s)that you want to close. The final gem of an idea thought up for you by your caring, sharing NFA is something referred to FIFO (First In, First Out)...What that means is this: assume that you were trading EURUSD and opened a long position... the market moves up and looks like it will continue so you open another long position. Now price starts to decline so you want to close the 2nd order before it turns into a loser and let the initial order run in the hope that the upward move will resume, after all, you can always close the initial order later if the need arises...

Sorry - that is not allowed! The new NFA rules means you would be forced to close the initial order before you could close the second order. So, once the markets re-open on Sunday, the face of trading for vast numbers of people will have changed very much for the worse! If your current broker is registered (and therefore regulated) by the NFA then there is a very, very high probability that any EAs that you might be using will cease to function. Depending upon the order types used, there is still a slight possibility that an EA might continue to function if it was the sole trading system used on a particular currency pair, but, under the new rules there is no safe way of simultaneously running multiple EAs on the same currency pair - even if they were all trading in the same direction as the FIFO rule prevents an EA from monitoring and managing its own positions.

Remember: This does not just affect traders using EAs - anyone trading more than one manual strategy is also going to find things incredibly difficult from next week. To quote from the US national anthem "...the home of the brave and the land of the free (unless you trade Forex!)"

To HELL With This... THE Solution!
You have really only got 2 options - you either stop trading forex or you adjust. The bottom line is this... life is all about adjusting. Nothing is static in life... you have got to overcome those issues that eventually hit you head on! When judging any broker's performance, you need to take into account 8 criteria: Service, reliability, spread, slippage, ease of opening an account, reputation, suitability for the small trader AND MT4 compatibility.

Remember - it is not just about the spread... or the slippage... or the service - it is about a whole range of characteristics that are KEY to your forex trading success.

I know... many people might think "Damn, do I have to open a new forex account now "... YES, my friend - you do, unless you want to stay behind and suffer the bitter consequences. Do something about it now - do not just sit and wait for the new NFA rules to hit your forex trading account. From Sunday the 2nd of August 2009 You Can Kiss Your Forex Trading Profits GOODBYE! The clock is ticking and, to be honest, if I were you I would NOT want to have my forex trading account with an NFA regulated Forex broker come Sunday the 2nd of August 2009.

If you have not opened a Forex trading account yet and wish to do so now OR, if you have an account with an NFA regulated broker, then it is time to act...There are over 80 forex brokers in the market... most are CRAP. Most will scam you out of your hard earned cash. A few will be good... even fewer will be great, reliable and consistent.

US Dollar Currency Profile

2009-07-31T16:30:00.000+07:00

Know the US Dollar intimately as a currency trader. It is important for you as currency trader to have a good grasp of the general economic characteristics of the most commonly traded currencies. US Dollar is the most heavily traded currency in the global economy.

You should know as a trader what moves the currencies particularly the pairs that you are interested in trading. Traders need to also know the difference between the expected and the actual data. Some currencies tend to track commodity prices while others may move in complete contrast.

Expectations are what move the markets in the short term. Short term traders need to closely monitor the expectation of the currency markets. News or data that is in line with the expectations has less of an impact on currency movements than unexpected news or data. The correlation between the currency markets and news is very important.

US GDP is approximately five times the size of Germany, three times the size of Japan and seven times the size of UK. United States is the world’s leading economy. The US economy is now a service oriented economy with almost 80% of GDP coming from real estate, finance, health care, transportation and business services.

United States capital markets are the most efficient markets in the world. United States has the world’s most liquid and deep equity and fixed income markets in the world. The manufacturing sector is still formidable and US Dollar is particularly sensitive to the development within the sector. Cheap capital formation is what drives any company or any economy and United States capital markets help in cheap capital formation.

The import and export volume of US also dwarfs the countries. This maybe due to the sheer size of US as true import and export represent only 12% of the GDP. Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) into the US is equal to almost 40% of the total net inflows for United States. Investors from all over the world purchase US assets due to their liquidity and safety.

Current Account Deficit & US Dollar
However, United States is running a large CA deficit for more than a decade now. US economy is facing the paradox of the twin deficits. One is the Budget Deficit and the other is the Current Account (CA) deficit. During the present financial crisis, the budget deficit has ballooned. Almost a trillion dollars have been added to the budget deficit. This is going to fuel inflation when the economy recovers. There are dangers of high inflation returning. Inflation can make the US Dollar weak in the long run.

Due to the high CA deficit; United States need to attract a few billion dollars of capital inflows daily in order to prevent the decline in the value of US Dollar. In other words, the Current Account (CA) deficit is being financed by the Capital Account (KA) surplus. The large CA deficit makes the US Dollar highly sensitive to changes in the capital flows.

United States is a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO). This means that United States is heavily committed to the free trade idea. A weaker US Dollar will help boost US exports whereas a stronger US Dollar makes the US exports expensive and US imports cheap. US trade is equal to roughly 20% of the world trade. United States is the trading partner of many countries across the globe.

Leading import sources for United States are: China, Mexico, Japan, Canada and European Union (EU). Leading export markets for United States are: Japan, European Union (EU), United Kingdom, Canada and Mexico. The growth and political stability in countries that are leading export markets for US are important. For example, Canada’s demand for US exports will fall that will have a ripple effect on US growth should Canada growth slow.

FED & US Dollar
You should understand the role of monetary and fiscal policy in strengthening or weakening the US Dollar or that matter any other currency is important. Who makes the monetary policy in any country? It is the Central Bank of that country. The Federal Reserve Board (FED) is responsible for making the monetary policy of United States. Through its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), FED sets and implements the monetary policy. The voting members of FOMC are the seven governors of FED plus five presidents of the district reserve banks. The meetings of FOMC are widely watched by the analyst for interest rate announcements and changes in growth expectations. Eight meeting of FOMC are held every year.

FED uses the monetary policy to control inflation, unemployment and balanced growth. FED has a high degree of independence in setting the monetary policy. FED has the mandate for long run price stability and sustainable economic growth. In other words, fighting inflation and unemployment are the two most important jobs of FED Chairman. The most important tool used by FED is its Open Market Operations.

Monetary policy uses control of interest rate to increase or decrease the money supply in the economy to achieve its growth objective. FED controls the short term interest rate through its open market operations. It involves FED’s sale or purchase of government securities that includes treasury bills, notes and bonds. Increase in FED’s purchases lowers the interest rates while selling of these securities raises the interest rate.

Federal Fund Rate is the key policy target of the FED. It is the interest rate at which the banks lend overnight to one another in the overnight interbank market. The primary interest rate that is affected by these operations is the Federal Fund Rate. The market then adjusts the other short term and long term interest rates accordingly. FED does not directly sets the Federal Fund Rate. It establishes a target rate through the open market operations.

US Treasury & US Dollar
The other main pillar of economic policy is the fiscal policy. Who controls the fiscal policy? The governments in almost all the countries! Fiscal policy means the amount of taxes and government spending for a given year. The US fiscal policy is in the control of US Treasury. In fact it is the US Treasury that actually determines the US Dollar policy.

You should always try to watch the US Treasury views as changes to that view is very important for the currency markets. For example, US Treasury can give instructions to the New York Federal Reserve Board to intervene in the forex markets by actually buying or selling US Dollars if the US Treasury feels that the US Dollar is under or overvalued.

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD and USD/CHF are the most heavily traded currency pairs in the global currency markets. These currency pairs represent the most frequently traded currency pairs in the global markets. Over 90% of all currency deals involve the US Dollar. As you can see, all these currency pairs involve US Dollar on either side of the pair. So the most important economic data for the global currency markets is the US Dollar fundamentals.

Gold & US Dollar
The relationship between Gold and US Dollar is very important for you to understand. There is an almost perfect negative correlation between the US Dollar and the gold prices. The US Dollar moves in opposite direction to the gold. This inverse relationship stems from the fact that gold is measured in US Dollars.

When US Dollar depreciates due to global economic uncertainty like the present, gold appreciates. Similarly when the US Dollar will appreciate on the news of US economic recovery, gold prices will go down. Gold is commonly viewed as the ultimate safe haven commodity by the investors all over the globe. You must know that the gold prices are going up right now and have reached very high levels. Gold trading and currency trading can be a very powerful combination.

United States was known to have one of the safest and the most developed capital markets in the world. As the risk of severe United States instability was considered to be very low, US Dollar was considered one of the premier safe haven currencies in the world prior to September 11.

US Dollar reserves were very popular among the foreign countries and foreign investors. US Dollar was considered to be very safe. Almost 76% of the global currency reserves were in US Dollar. This allowed United States to attract investments from all over the world at a discounted rate of return. However, due to the present United States financial crisis, foreign investors and the Central Banks are not so sure about the US Dollar due to the increased US uncertainty. The decreasing interest rates and continuing recession is forcing foreign investors to think of other alternatives.

China & US Dollar
China pegs its currency to US Dollar. China has been accused by the United States many times of using this practice to keep its national currency artificially weak in order to boost its exports. There are many other developing and emerging countries that peg their local currencies to US Dollar. China is a very active participant of the global currency markets because its maximum float per day is controlled within a narrow band based on the previous day’s closing US Dollar rates. Any fluctuations beyond this band will invite intervention by the Chinese Central Bank that may include buying and selling US Dollars. Important countries that peg their currencies to US Dollar are China and Hong Kong.

EU represents a market as large as US with its own single currency Euro. The emergence of Euro is also threatening the US Dollar as the world’s premier reserve currency. Euro has provided an alternative to the US Dollar. With the passage of time, it is feared that Euro will emerge as a strong challenger to the dominance of US Dollar. Recently a group of countries like China, France and others have called for the introduction of a new global reserve currency by the IMF that should replace the US Dollar. If this happens in the next few years, it may have far reaching implications of the US Dollar and the US economy.

Many analysts fear a major devaluation of US Dollars in the near future due to the present financial crisis in the United States. Many central banks have already begun to diversify their foreign exchange reserves by reducing their US Dollar holdings and increasing their holdings in Euro and the gold. The US markets are the largest markets in the world and the investors all over the world are very sensitive to the yields offered by the US assets. Money flows where the returns are high. Interest rate differentials can be a very strong indicator of potential currency movements. The interest rate differentials between the US Treasuries and foreign bonds are followed by the professional forex traders with keen interest.

US Dollar Index
It is important that you follow the US Dollar index because when the market analysts are talking of general US Dollar weakness, they are referring to this index. The USDX is a futures contract traded on the New York Board of Trade (NYBOT). Market participants closely watch the US Dollar Index as an indicator of overall US Dollar strength or weakness.

The US Stock and Bond markets also impact US Dollar. Cross border merger and acquisitions involve big forex transactions and are also very important for forex traders to watch. The following economic indicators are important for the US Dollar: Employment, Nonfarm payrolls, Consumer Confidence, Retail Sales, Consumer Price Index, Produced Price Index, GDP, International Trade, Employment Cost Index, Industrial Production, TIC Data etc.

How to Prosper in a Downturn?

2009-07-31T08:50:00.000+07:00

How to prosper in a downturn? If you've followed my videos and courses, you know one of the key lessons I teach is about being able to take advantage of 'trends'. Usually we're talking about stocks or Forex - but did you know there are trends emerging right now that could affect your ability to create wealth over the next 30 years?

Wouldn't you like to know what trends are happening now that you could ride before anybody else even knows they exist or what the impact of those trends will be? We all would! That's why you might want to check out Harry Dent. Why Harry? Here's what he predicted

-- the 1990 collapse of the Japanese market
-- the U.S. economy's boom years of the late 90's
-- the real estate 'bubble' of 2003-05

And Harry is virtually the only one to accurately predict the financial cliff that the banking industry fell off of last year (and the subsequent, tethered world industries after that). Now Harry is talking, both publicly and literally, in his
"How to Prosper in a Downturn". In this sneak peek preview, you can hear exactly what's coming, and how to prepare for it -- Grab your copy of "How to Prosper in a Downturn" here:

How To Prosper in a Downturn?

Following the financial system collapse last fall, people said, "Way to go Harry; you called it right." But what did they REALLY want to know?

- what we can do about it now?
- how we can take advantage of it?
- what could be next?

This led Harry to put forth one of the most comprehensive forecasts -- he's making some very shocking predictions about where things are headed, when, and what you can do about it. I think you'll find his letter makes for VERY interesting and exciting reading.

How To Prosper in a Downturn?

Good Trading,
Bill Poulos

Crude Oil Price Crashes after Unusually High Inventory Data

2009-07-31T00:29:00.000+07:00

The price of Crude Oil experienced a sharp decline in prices yesterday after a U.S. inventories report highlighted a sudden surge in energy supplies. While these reports may carry mixed messages about demand, supply, and growth expectations, the message yesterday was quite clear: demand is plummeting. Many analysts were expecting a draw-back in prices after last week's surge, but the inventory report only demonstrated how unwanted this commodity has become, which only put additional weight on the downward pressure this commodity was already expecting.

USD - Dollar Extends Profits against the Majors

The Dollar continues to strengthen against all the major currencies. During yesterday's session the greenback was traded near a two-week high versus the EUR. The Dollar also marked a significant uptrend against the Pound and Yen.

It seems that the main reason for the USD's appreciation yesterday came as a result of the positive Core Durable Goods Orders monthly report, as well as a statement by China that it will maintain a more loose monetary policy. Whilst the Durable Goods figures reported a drop of 2.5% in June, mainly as a result of the weak demand for new civilian aircraft and defense equipment, it seems that investors were more impressed by the 1.1% rise in the Core Orders during June.

The difference between the two reports is that the Core report measures the change in the total value of new purchases orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods, excluding transportation items. Orders for aircraft are known to be very volatile, and thus have the potential to distort the underlying trend. This is why investors tend to attribute more importance to the Core report. The positive figure marked the third consecutive month in which this report delivered signs of positive growth, driving investors to believe that the global recession is reaching its end.

As for today, the main publication from the U.S economy looks to be the weekly Unemployment Claims report at 12:30 GMT. Currently, while all the major indicators of the U.S economy are showing signs of improvement, it is only the job sector which continues to deliver negative figures. Analysts forecast that 578K individuals have filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. If the actual result will be similar, this could be the harshest unemployment figures in the last month. Such a result may help drive the demand for the safety of the USD and drive its recent bullishness even higher.

EUR - German CPI Marks First Annual Decline in 22 Years

The EUR dropped yesterday against most of the major currencies. The EUR is currently traded near a two weeks low against the Dollar, as the pair fell to the 1.40 level. The EUR also saw a sharp drop against the Pound during yesterday's session.

The EUR's slide came as a result of the unexpected negative German Preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. This indicator measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers in Germany. Considering the fact the Germany currently holds the strongest and relatively healthiest economy in the Euro-Zone, the inflation indicators from this nation have a large impact on the EUR. The indicator showed a drop of 0.1% in July.

More severely, this report has marked the first annual decline in consumer prices in Germany in more than 22 years! It appears to be the drop in energy and food costs, which took place as a result of the global recession, which created the poor annual decline in German CPI. It now seems quite certain that for any negative indicators from the German economy such as this one have the potential to weaken the EUR in the near future.

Looking ahead to today, another significant report is scheduled from the German economy. The German Unemployment Change, which measures the change in the number of unemployed people during the previous month, is expected at 07:55 GMT. Analysts have forecasted that unemployment in Germany increased by 44K in June. If the results are indeed close to this figure, the EUR might continue to depreciate against the major currencies.

JPY - Yen Slides on Poor Retail Sales Release

The Yen underwent a bearish session against most of the major currencies yesterday. The JPY dropped over 100 pips versus the Dollar, and over 200 pips against the Pound.

The Yen dropped yesterday on poor Retails Sales data. The report showed that the total value of sales at the retail level dropped by 3.0% in June, failing to reach expectations for a 2.5% drop. Furthermore, Japan's retails sales fell for a 10th month in June, making the longest losing streak since 2003. It seems that even though the Japanese economy is showing signs of recovering, mainly due to the positive export figures, the Japanese citizens are reluctant to resume last year's consumption levels, an indication that optimism may be lacking in Japan.

As for today, a batch of data is expected from the Japanese economy. Traders are advised to follow the Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index report. This report is a leading inflationary indicator for Japan, and thus tends to have a large impact on the JPY's value. If current expectations for a 1.7% drop will be similar to the real result, the Yen might continue to weaken against the major currencies in late-trading today.

Crude Oil - Will Crude Oil Drop Below $60 a Barrel?

Crude Oil prices continued to slide yesterday. Yesterday morning, a barrel of oil was valued near $66, but the current price is trading for less than $63. The main reason for the sharp cut in crude oil prices yesterday was the Crude Oil Inventories report. The report shows an unexpected surge in U.S. energy stockpiles. While analysts expected a drop of 1.1M barrels, the actual result showed that stockpiles surged by 5.1M barrels!

Most analysts had anticipated a pull-back in prices since Oil was seemingly over-bought technically and fundamentally, but the high inventories report simply put added weight to this expected downward pressure. In addition, the USD continued to strengthen yesterday. Crude Oil is valued in Dollars, and as such, tends to fall under the weight of a strong Dollar.

Looking ahead to today, traders are advised to follow the Natural Gas Storage report, scheduled at 14:30 GMT. This is more energy data that has the potential to influence oil prices by showing a continued trend of high stockpiles, indicating low demand. Traders should also consider the Dollar's movements in today's trading, as it has a large effect on commodity values.

Article Source - Crude Oil Price Crashes after Unusually High Inventory Data

Euro May Extend Losses as German Jobless Rate Hits Highest in Nearly 2 Years (Euro Open)

2009-07-31T00:25:00.000+07:00

The Euro may extend recent losses in European trading hours as Germany’s unemployment rate rises to 8.4% in July, the highest since November 2007, as the Euro Zone’s largest economy sheds 43,000 jobs. Euro Zone Economic Confidence is also on tap.

Key Overnight Developments

• Japan’s Industrial Production Grows Most Since 1953 in Q3
• Euro, British Pound Flat Ahead of the Opening Bell in Europe

Critical Levels

The Euro is effectively unchanged going into the European trading session having oscillated in a narrow 0.4% range around 1.4050 in overnight trading. Likewise, the British Pound fluctuated in a 0.4% band around 1.6380, yielding a flat result ahead of the opening bell in London.

Asia Session Highlights

Japanese Industrial Production grew at the weakest pace in three months in June, adding 2.4% from the previous month. In annual terms, the pace of decline moderated to -23.4%, the slowest rate of contraction since December of last year. On a quarterly basis, output gained 8.3% in the three months through June, the most since 1953. Much of the resurgence can be chalked up to companies replenishing inventories having sharply cut back on orders and production as the global economic crisis reached a boiling point in 2008. More of the same is likely in the coming months as restocking continues. In fact, minutes from the last meeting of the Bank of Japan revealed policymakers expect manufacturing and exports will continue to recover “mainly due to progress in adjustments in [inventories]”. That said, any sustainable rebound will have to come with growth in underlying demand, which is arguably destined to remain sluggish for some time. Indeed, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said its latest world economic outlook that global trade volumes are likely to rebound just 1% having shed a whopping -12.2% in 2009.

Euro Session: What to Expect

Germany’s Unemployment Rate is set to rise to 8.4% in July, the highest since November 2007, as the Euro Zone’s largest economy sheds 43,000 jobs. Mounting layoffs will hinder Germany’s ability to mount a robust recovery from the current downturn, weighing on disposable incomes and discouraging consumption, the largest component of overall economic growth. Indeed, the IMF recently forecast that Germany as well as the Euro area as a whole will stand apart from other industrialized economies in seeing GDP continue to shrink in 2010. Further, the ailing labor market is likely to become a more visible drag on risk appetite as the government’s fiscal package is used up and firms run out of room to cut capacity and produce upside earnings surprises, yielding to sluggish revenue growth and driving stock valuations lower. This bodes ill for the Euro, particularly against the US Dollar, with interest rates likely to remain low and risky assets on the defensive.

Separately, Euro Zone Economic Confidence is expected to rise to 75.0 in July, marking the fourth consecutive month of improvement since the metric hit a record low in March. The reading is a composite of five sub-sector sentiment reports: Industrial Confidence (40%), Service Confidence (30%), Consumer Confidence (20%), Construction Confidence (5%), and the Retail Trade Confidence Indicator (5%). The metric may continue to gain for a bit longer as the combined impact of fiscal stimulus measures across the region and higher stock prices boost confidence, but seems likely to reverse course in the medium term as lackluster domestic and overseas demand creep back into the forefront.

Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Analyst
Article Source - Euro May Extend Losses as German Jobless Rate Hits Highest in Nearly 2 Years (Euro Open)

Forex Magazine at the presentation of DJ FOREX

2009-07-30T19:39:00.000+07:00

PRIME-Tass and Dow Jones Newswires announce the successful launch of Russian-language news feeds on the foreign exchange market DJ FOREXMoscow, May 12. The leading Russian economic information agency PRIME-TASS news agency and the world financial and economic news agency Dow Jones Newswires today officially announced the launch of a Russian-language news feeds on the international currency market - DJ FOREX. This unique for the Russian market news intended for the Russian foreign exchange dealers, analysts, customers of banks and investment companies offering services on access to the world currency market.News was unofficially launched in early February. Since then, subscribers DJ FOREX became more than a dozen of the largest Russian banks and financial companies, including Guta-Bank, MDM Bank, Lefko-Bank, company, Forex Club, Teletreyd, Fibo, Kalita-Finance, and Russian Alpari Dealing Center.The number of individual users DJ FOREX, receiving news through their brokers, there are now hundreds of people. It was expected that by the end of the year DJ FOREX will be available to several thousands of individual users."The first three months of the DJ FOREX show that in Russia there is indeed a serious demand for quality information in real time on the international currency market. It is obvious that the demand for this information will grow, as Russia is approaching the year 2007, when Russian ruble should become a convertible, "- said director of PRIME-TASS Oleg Ananiev."We are very pleased to positive market reaction to our new product. This reaction shows that in Russia there is a demand for quality news on the foreign exchange market by Dow Jones Newswires", - said Michael Bergmayer (Michael Bergmeijer), Vice President of International Sales and Marketing, Dow Jones Newswires. "We are also very pleased that our partnership with the PRIME-TASS news agency developed and now has reached the stage in the production of joint products."News consists of headlines and articles translated from the same tape Dow Jones Newswires, highlighting the situation in the key world currency venues of Tokyo to New York in real time. Especially detailed bid for the U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, euro, British pound and Swiss franc. In the special category "People say the market" published operational comments and forecasts of leading market participants. Every day is a few reviews, market commentary and technical analysts. One section of the tape deals with macroeconomic data from the Big Seven. Subscribers have access to a constantly updated calendar of major events affecting the currency market.The translation into Russian news team from a few professional translators and editors are well versed in the specifics of the foreign exchange market. The quality of translation is controlled by Dow Jones Newswires.DJ FOREX News in Russian in real time is available to subscribers from 7 am to 11 pm Moscow time, when the opening of the main foreign exchange markets. In addition, subscribers also have access to the news headlines in the foreign exchange market in English 24 hours a day 365 days a year.News in Russian now consists of 150-200 titles per day, while the number of English-language titles may exceed 600.Newsline is available for individual customers through the website PRIME-TASS www.prime-tass.ru/news/dowjones/ or by e-mail. Large customers have the opportunity to receive news via the IP-connection. Dow Jones Newswires Customers can subscribe to news virtually anywhere, including through Reuters terminals.DJ FOREX is the fruit of cooperation between the Prime-Tass and Dow Jones Newswires, which was formalized by the treaty last year. Agreement on the Establishment of DJ FOREX was signed in January this year. PRIME-Tass and Dow Jones Newswires are considering creating similar products for financial markets.About Dow Jones NewswiresDow Jones Newswires, the world's largest news agency, deals with the spread of economic, financial, and political information. News agencies often have a strong influence on the situation in global financial markets. Every day, Dow Jones Newswires publishes up to 10 thousand messages. His clients are 318 thousand professionals of the financial market in 66 countries. In addition, millions of people have access to selected Dow Jones Newswires reported on the Internet, through electronic exchanges, corporate web sites and networks. News Dow Jones Newswires published in 11 languages.In the past and present of the Dow Jones Newswires had received an award as "Best Supplier news from the professional edition of Inside Market Data. Dow Jones Newswires was founded in 1882. Currently, it operates 800 journalists and editors. Dow Jones Newswires - is part of a global network of Dow Jones & Company, in which 1,6 thousand journalists. Dow Jones Newswires also uses the resources the agency Associated Press.