EUR / USD 03 July 2009

EUR/USD people fail to continue its bullish momentum. This currency can not be in the 1.4176 area, its price down in the 1.3988 and 1.4002 at the close. U.S. currency has been exposed to the risk effect of which is bad from the data is expected by NFP. Tehknikal see if the chat H4, trendline suppot has passed, this case showed indication for further down (bearish).
Failure to survive in the 1.4176 area and trendline support that has been in the skip, will trigger a currency is weakening. Seems to be bias to bearish in the near future will be to test the 1.3850, but also the medium-term trend we can not predict its movements. This is caused by movement eur / usd is still in the area 1.4176 - 1.3750. resistant 1.4050 possibilities in the area.

GBP / USD 03 July 2009

GBP/USD a bearish momentum is strong enough for people. Price up in its closed at 1.6322 and 1.6391. H4 in the chart we can see that after failing to be in the area is the key 1.6660 level that the currency is resistant to the trend back down and go through trendline support.
This visible support would bearish in the near future. but for the middle period is still not clear or is still difficult to predict. bearish bias nearest will test level to 1.6420. if the trigger break should bullish momentum.

GBP / USD 01 July 2009

GBP / USD tried to push people to the top, the price is up 1.6741, but for the bullish scenario as it failed, and curency this move down in the 1.6422 and closed at 1.6456. H4 in the time frame we can see cases break out the trick, from the resistant level of 1.6660 and the price now seems ready to test to the trend line support. bias from bearish in the near future will try to support level 1.6530 area but for the medium term it will likely be wary netral.Kita at 1.6540 level, whether the opposition will do or not ..

EUR / USD 01 July 2009

EUR / USD is also trying to ride on the day and where the highest momentum in 1.4149 but failed to increase it, even turn down, which is in the price down close at 1.4001 and 1.4031 from the point of view the medium term, we still have not a moment, and it remains trapped in the area 1.4176 - 1.3750. On the down movement, trendline support that should be on notice that the nearest support is seen at 1.3950, if the break will drive the currency down more this again.

GBP / USD bullish experience

GPB / USD Open 1.6573 at 1.6742 at its High, Low and Close at 1.6430 at 1.6560. GBP / USD where the rise. and reach the bottom at 1.6430 and the start of the crawl increases. In the time frame in the H1 looks bullish for the minor channels, this shows the pressure up, and the possibility to test the area to 1.6750 and 1.6880 in the follow. If detained in this area will provide for the neutral. support in the nearest 1.6475.

The technical level is on resistant
1. 1.6750
2. 1.6880
3. 1.7000

and support are on the level
1. 1.6475
2. 1.6360
3. 1.6235

To this day trading at 1.6665 to the 1.6740 area. Trend tends to increase
Buy 1.6677 Stop Loss at 1.6647 Take profit 1.6727

EUR / USD suggested wait n see

EUR / USD Open 1.4086 High at 1.4131 in, 1.3983 in the Low and close at 1.4077. EUR / USD to rise on Monday. Curency price reaches 1.3983 at its low., From there he began to ascend and closed at 1.4077 on the price. H1 visible on the chart curency this is trying to test again to the down trend line, but still restrained. This causes pressure ketas stronger for the short term with resistant at 1.4160, but its long-term curency is running under that level. In the medium term terlihal not signal a trend for them. May be better to wait further developments.

The resistant tekhnical are on the level:
1 1.4160
2. 1.4275
3. 1.4400

and Support is at:
1. 1.3890
2. 1.3765
3. 1.3645

Buy Stop at 1.4101 with 1.4071 in the lost and Take Profit at 1.4141

GBP/USD 26 juni 2009

Gbp / usd at the close is lower than the day Thursday people, this was a long trade. but if you see mid-range is possible on the day this move be stable. Stochastic and RSI will identify that a trade sideways in the near term.

Resistances
1 : 1.6389
2 : 1.6408
3 : 1.6427
4 : 1.6446
5 : 1.6465

Supports
1 : 1.6351
2 : 1.6332
3 : 1.6313
4 : 1.6294
5 : 1.6275

EUR /USD 26 Juni 2009

Eur/usd movement possible with the same people. with a view Higg close on Thursday this week the possibility of movement is high enough. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signals for the period of sideways in the near future. if lower than penurun week will bring people to the reaction downside target.

Resistances
1 : 1.4010
2 : 1.4034
3 : 1.4058
4 : 1.4082
5 : 1.4106

Supports
1 : 1.3962
2 : 1.3938
3 : 1.3914
4 : 1.3890
5 : 1.3866

Eur/Usd has Reached 1.40**

Eur/Usd successfully point up to 1:40 but tren have to go down, because it needs to pull through in the term buck the trend down for the near future. Eur/Usd be strong although where PMI data from Europe disappointing, GBP / USD also increased although the USD/JPY uptrend experience. therefore Eur/Usd can take the benefit of its investors' pullout from the dollar on FOMC policy decision. Most analysts estimate the signal from the Fed will give a few changes in monetary policy since inflation which should be soon. The investors believe Fed will inability to tighten monetary policy because of the economic situation its weak american that can endanger the future. It also happens in the market liquiditas a massive make the dollar more collapse and make for increased eur.

Although widespread, but weakness dollar eur/usd and do not get a big enough benefit, it is caused by some disappointing economic data. than the PMI data, the European Union also reported high will account deficit of the the estimate the analyst. At this time uni European export demand is not as expected. However, sufficient care because we must also see how the dollar reacted to today's economic data combined with the Fed policy

Resistances

1: 1.4112

2: 1.4147

3: 1.4186

4: 1.4225

5: 1.4229

Supports

1: 1.4052

2: 1.4028

3: 1.3978

4: 1.3947

5: 1.3894

GBP / USD Trying to Ride Again

Curency GBP / USD cendrung an experience to go down on the volume level middle .investor the dollar with the divesting of fed decision on monetary policy later., Investors believe that the FOMC remains Adverse position on the ability to lead in a large number of liquiditas will circulating in the market.Since the U.S. is exposed to the rest of the globe more monetarily, benefit more from the pound euro since the majority of UK economic data continues to flow in or over the ekspectasi analysis. Including the CBI this week sales figures. CBI data that meet the expectations of analysts to indicate that while Pound is still struggling but at least retail decline, is in the level better than before it. However, at this time investors more comfortable in the U.S. Dollar

If the GBP / USD can rise from the previous high this can be said as quicken progress. investors must keep the volume to move the volume updown .For trends, investors should look at U.S. economic data this morning. and follow FOMC meeting. If the S & P future crude likely to continue the trend decline in GBP / USD will be follow its correlation very down because positif.Volatility should be improved this week and there is no certainty how the dollar will react to the Fed decision. Whatever the GBP / USD has made some moves backward.

Resistances

1: 1.6574

2: 1.6624

3: 1.6698

4: 1.6768

5: 1.6851

Supports

1: 1.6532

2: 1.6472

3: 1.6412

4: 1.6371

5: 1.6315

The EURUSD Jun 23 / 2009

The EURUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday. The pair bottomed at 1.3826 and closed at 1.3864. The bias remains neutral in nearest term but we might have another downside momentum testing key level support around 1.3750 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish scenario towards 1.3650 area. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3950 (yesterday's high). CCI in neutral area on h1 chart

Euro/Dollar traded downwards yesterday. On the 1 and 4 hour charts this technical direction was shown with the downward direction head and shoulders formation. Immediate resistance is yesterday's top at 1.3955. Break above this level may trigger further increasing momentum toward next target 1.4070. The nearest support is represented by the 1.3820 level, followed by 1.3700. The CCI indicator has crossed up the 100 line on the 1 hour chart, assuming potential ascending pressure with possible insignificant upward correction.

Technical resistance levels: 1.3955 1.4070 1.4200
Technical support levels: 1.3820 1.3700 1.3590

Trading range: 1.3890 - 1.3815

Trend: Downward

Sell at 1.3868 SL 1.3898 TP 1.3828

How Smart the Global Crisis

See the economic situation of late is very difficult for us to plan or run a business with high overhead costs (cost operasianal). Many business sectors are experiencing difficulty in a situation like this, therefore we must consider alternative ways to get out of this economic crisis shock.
In this case we try to select the business sector alternative to the backup card business, which we already have. While some of the requirements to be considered in selecting alternative business:
1. Business that does not require a setup fee that is too large so that the initial capital needed is not too large. So for the investment, equipment and articles for business does not swell. Which as we know that the investment and equipment spending is terbersar before we start the business.
2. Business that we are building must have a working program for a minimum of 2 years, from the planning that we can get the budget of the operational costs required to build this business. With the current economic conditions to see whether this business that we can cover up operasianal that we need.
3. We must see the potential benefits that we will get, the determination of the ROI (Return Of Investment), a period of time we reach the ROI. That way we can see that we do business can survive in a global economic crisis at this time.
4. See the business market segmentation, market segmentation with the set we already get the picture we market, we can estimate the situation with the market fluctuation and economic conditions at this time. So we can measure the results of sales and liquidity of financial markets we target.
5. After viewing the various requirements above we can determine the maximum amount of tolerance that we can receive when we fail in doing our business program, we do this is to restrict themselves from losses that can not be predicted.

After viewing the picture above we can conclude that the alternative business that we select must be in accordance with the financial picture that we have adjusted to the condition of this global economic crisis, therefore we try to encourage business cooperation with the alternative description view limits - limits that we must note, a business in the trade measure (futures) are one alternative that we can take some consideration with the view.
Business trade measure (Futures) has some plus points that can be a consideration we choose the alternative sebalum business conditions in the middle of this global crisis, a few points that we can take are:
1. To start this alternative we do not require a large initial setup, as in the futures business (measure) we do not require some capital so that we can and we are sparing no need to create a depreciation of the place.
2. Investment for the equipment business we can reduce, as in the futures business (measure) can be done online so the equipment that we need only 1 unit laptop with internet connection only, the calculation is more sparingly than we invested to purchase the production equipment, we also have not been clearly about pemaksimalan use.
3. we can limit the losses that will arise if we fail to run this business, because we do not require a setup fee of big business. in this case we determine, for example 30% of the amount of the capital.
4. Overhead funds (fund business operations) because almost no, we do business online. So that expenditures for employee salaries, advertising and promotion purposes is very small office and does not become a big burden in the process of running our business.
5. Segmentation of the market, because this business is the future of business as mentioned by some observers of the market and the world of investment and financial call as business investment trend of the future.
6. Other benefits of this business is the business is not affected by the global economic crisis is in progress. In this case, in other words we can get the opportunity at any time.
7. Bring your future with us

Fundamental weaknesses ANALISYS & TEKNIKAL

Weakness in the Fundamental Analysis

1. It takes time to get information.
2. Often a subjective opinion because many people involved.
3. Better applied to the long term trading period
4. Difficult to apply in the market is not efficient

Weakness in the Technical Analysis
1. Need more data to support akuratnya input.
2. Depends on the ability chartist. Chartist each have a different method and each match will not necessarily apply to each other

Fundamental Analysis

analysis the basic information is Fundamental / news (news), which comes from:
1. Official Institutions / Government
2. Print / electronic
3. Individual
According to the source, the method Fundamental are subjective, depending on the degree of belief Investor / Consultant to the news source. Penganalisaan the basic information is Fundamental / news (news), which comes from:
1. Official Institutions / Government
2. Print / electronic
3. Individual
According to the source, the method Fundamental are subjective, depending on the degree of belief Investor / Consultant to the news source.

Fundamental nature news grouped into two, namely:
1. Requests are Bullish News
Bullish derived from the word 'bull' (bull); describes the nature of the market price movement seems to be down, but actually will increase (similar movement musuhnya bull horn, the horn, and was thrown up).
Examples are Bullish news from the Reuter / print media:
- Bad weather / storm / unfavourable,
- 3 - 6 conseccutive (consecutive) days up / firmer (menguat)
- Triggered Buying, Bottomside / bottomout, Buying Power, etc.
2. News Quotes / Supply is BEARISH
Bearish derived from the word 'bear' (bear); describes the nature of the market price movement seems to be rising, but the actual price will go down .
Examples are Bearish news from the Reuter / print media:
- Fine weather / favourable, 3-6 consecutive days down / easier (weakened)
- Lack of Demand (Lack of Demand)
- Triggered Selling, capped Topside (Peak has been reached), Harvesting
- Selling Power, Ample of stock (Stock abundant), etc..

Factors affecting the fundmental analysis
Analysis:
 Economy
 Politics
 Security
Determines:
 speed information
 Source of information
 information Processing & Forecasting / prediction

The concept of transaction Trading in Minor and major trends

Background Concepts

In foreign exchange market there are those who buy (buyer) of a currency and the selling party (seller) in other currencies. They reason that we call as "the market" foreign exchange.

Participants foreign exchange market and money market, nowadays more diverse. Survey conducted recently tended to categorize the participants as below:

o Government
o Central Bank
o International Banks
o Investment / Merchant Banks
o Other financial institutions
o Large Customer / Whole Sale
o Customer - client (speculator)

Market participants involved in the foreign exchange market have different purposes. Basically, can be grouped into three objectives, namely:

o Trading
o Hedging
o Speculating

Below is a type - the type of transaction that can be grouped in more detail, namely:

o Commercial: Export, import traffic capital, traffic and other services - other
o Funding: Loan foreign exchange, cash flow needs
o Hedging: For the purposes hedging risk on foreign exchange rate changes
o Investment: Commercial Investement, property investment and
portfolio investment
o Individual: Tourists to the needs of the individual or individuals


* So I can simpulkan that:
In addition to the foreign exchange with a large margin, there is also the foreign exchange is relatively small, also used the opportunity volatilitas a certain price range on the active exchanges in.


Analysis

The price movement of this closely related with the Supply and Demand, from the currency exchange rate.
Ex: Too much demand and prices tend to rise

In the forex market there are two factors that affect price movement:
Fundamental factors
Fundamental among other consists of political and economic factors (fiscal and monetary), and the sentiment and expectations.

Technical factors (Technical): Mapping kencendrungan price.
Some people argued that the foreign exchange rate is not influenced by the Fundamental factors, but only as a pattern repeated from time to time, so the actual direction of these changes can be predicted with the use of data - data that have been past.

The other factors that also affect price movements, namely:

Psychological factors
Request a quote or the perpetrators of the market based on estimates / ekspektasinya on the development of the exchange rate in the future with the purchase of a currency exchange rate are low and likely sell it after the exchange rate of the currency to rise or otherwise benefit from the transaction (investment / speculation)

Some investors predict movements in exchange rates by using secondary data

Based on the short-term trend may be time for:

 Minor Trend (several days)
 Intermediate Trend (some sunday)
 Major Trend (several months)

Based on the direction pergerakannya trend may be over:

 Uptrend
 Downtrend
 sideways trend


Concept

Experts said: "Trade with trend, never fight the trend." Trading is the best trading, which is always in line with the major trend, intermediate and minor trends trend.

Price foreign exchange moves are not linear, but as the waves that have peak and valley (move zig - zag).

Based on the background and analysis of the concept is more focused on the author of a relatively small market, but to actively do take advantage of trading opportunities from the minor difference in the price trend.

This concept is done through a mix technical factors (technical) and psychological factors regardless of market fundamentals, among others, namely:

Technical factors (Technical):

Through Software Metatrader only use Draw fibonacci Retracement (Counts Deret fibonacci),

This means taking a chance on the price and the range specified by Draw fibonacci Retracment combined with psychological market price that day yesterday! (Not the price of two or a few days ago), still provide opportunities tehadap rates running (now), as the minor actors in the market is very active to take advantage of opportunities that we often hear the price correction.

Action: Phase-phase implementation of the concept of "Trading in Minor Trend"

1. Once we download the software then we MetaTrader directly with the computer menginstalkan to us.

2. Opening the exchange rate of the desired suit us, with the type of bar chart or candle stick. Ex: GBP / USD

3. Using a standard time-scale program MetaTrader 1 hour (H 1)

4. Mengilangkan Grid, and enter a scale (Show Days / Show Period separators), so that it can memilah daily price movement.

5. Enter through the technical concepts fibonacci Retracment, selajutnya dissect / day yesterday to map out the movement as a standard input prices running (now) in other words "On The Spot Trading Price".

6. Selajutnya price range to see whether "the price goes up there on the range of 50% pergarakan price yesterday? or walk in the price range down from 50% pergarakan price yesterday? "
then we sempitkan array fibonacci retracment price range to run it.
Then we will find a range of fibonacci retracment minor.


As a note Retracment have fibonacci progression as follows:

0%, 23.6%, 38.2% 50%, 61.8%, 100%, 161.8%, 261.8%, 423.6%

Entry action:
Sell: In the range of 61, 8 - 100% target with 23.6%
Buy: In the range 0 - 23, 6% target with 61.8%

Exit Point: reversal / Switch
Switch Buy
If the price cut through chain-level 100%, above the target 161.8% fibonacci Retracment mapping according to normal (if the price risk going directly to cover the loss that occurred and the point becomes profit point.
Switch Buy
If the price level penetrate tier 0% 161.8% target under appropriate mapping fibonacci Retracment are normal or upside down (so if the price risk going directly to cover the loss that occurred and the point becomes profit point.


7. If the price has come through with the price level array fibonacci Retracment daily significantly yesterday in akibatkan by fundamental factors, the action in which to do is:
we map the range again in the range of line array fibonacci retracment minor, which occurred before, according to the price range of the latest row.


In this concept, the need is in the readiness of the transaction include:

o Trading mentality.
o of the time.
o Discipline concept

Risk Management & TRADING STRATEGY

1.Stop Take Profit & Loss Order
Stop Loss is a loss limit that we are willing responsibilities.
Take Profit is the limit of benefits we want to take.

2.Pending Order
Buy Stop is the position of buy orders above the price or the price of running time.
Buy Limit order is the position under the cheapest price running.
Sell Stop the Sell order is under the price running.
Sell Limit order is a Sell position above the price running.

3.Hedging/Locking
Hedging / Locking measure of trade in commodities is taking the position in market A commodity that contrary to the position of the physical in market.
Position in market have physical goods with the transaction LONG position.
A position in market commodity goods do not have a position with the transaction short.
Hedging / Locking in the trade measure Derivative 2 is taking the position (open buy and open-Sell) opposite in 1 product derivatives contract.

4.Averaging Position
Is to open a new position in accordance with the position long as the prices move in line with previous predictions.

5.Holding/Floating
Is holding the position despite any direction when the opposite direction desired.

6.Hit & Run Trading
Is a short trading price fluctuations by using a fast enough time on certain trade and take profits in the period of less than 2 hours.

7.Cut Loss & Switch / Reverse Position
Cut Loss means closing the position that because the price moves opposite to avoid greater losses.
Switch / Reverse is the direction turnover with close positions (Cut Loss), which are losers because the price moves contrary to the predictions, then open a new position to follow the price moves opposite to the expectation that the position of both the benefits will be greater than the first position, which is in the cut loss

When is the Right Time For a while ...

This question often when I receive a friend will start a fortune in the world market forex.open 24 hours, but there is no guarantee that profit will gain a lot, but most are not at the price movements can influence the market which are open (accounts).

I try to share what I know about the Forex Market, so that it can be used as a consideration in the deal in forex, but for me based on the major currencies are:

1. USD (United States) Open at 20:00 hrs 04.00 hrs at close
2. GBP (Ingris) Open at 15:00 hrs 23:00 hrs at the close
3. Eur (Euro / Europe) Open at 14:00 hrs 22:00 hrs at the close
4. JPY (Japan) Open in 0700 hrs 15:00 hrs at the close
5. AUD (Australian) Open at 05.00 hrs on the closing 13.00

By considering the most open market can not help us in the deal, both from the time that we have and the movement of average each curency that we want

Tips Trading Forex

Why do hundreds of thousands online traders and investors trade the forex market every day, and how do they make money doing it?

This two-part report clearly and simply details essential tips on how to avoid typical pitfalls and start making more money in your forex trading.

1.Trade pairs, not currencies - Like any relationship, you have to know both sides. Success or failure in forex trading depends upon being right about both currencies and how they impact one another, not just one.

2. Knowledge is Power - When starting out trading forex online, it is essential that you understand the basics of this market if you want to make the most of your investments.
The main forex influencer is global news and events. For example, say an ECB statement is released on European interest rates which typically will cause a flurry of activity. Most newcomers react violently to news like this and close their positions and subsequently miss out on some of the best trading opportunities by waiting until the market calms down. The potential in the forex market is in the volatility, not in its tranquility.

3. Unambitious trading - Many new traders will place very tight orders in order to take very small profits. This is not a sustainable approach because although you may be profitable in the short run (if you are lucky), you risk losing in the longer term as you have to recover the difference between the bid and the ask price before you can make any profit and this is much more difficult when you make small trades than when you make larger ones.

4. Over-cautious trading - Like the trader who tries to take small incremental profits all the time, the trader who places tight stop losses with a retail forex broker is doomed. As we stated above, you have to give your position a fair chance to demonstrate its ability to produce. If you don't place reasonable stop losses that allow your trade to do so, you will always end up undercutting yourself and losing a small piece of your deposit with every trade.

5. Independence - If you are new to forex, you will either decide to trade your own money or to have a broker trade it for you. So far, so good. But your risk of losing increases exponentially if you either of these two things:
Interfere with what your broker is doing on your behalf (as his strategy might require a long gestation period);
Seek advice from too many sources - multiple input will only result in multiple losses. Take a position, ride with it and then analyse the outcome - by yourself, for yourself.

6. Tiny margins - Margin trading is one of the biggest advantages in trading forex as it allows you to trade amounts far larger than the total of your deposits. However, it can also be dangerous to novice traders as it can appeal to the greed factor that destroys many forex traders. The best guideline is to increase your leverage in line with your experience and success.

7. No strategy - The aim of making money is not a trading strategy. A strategy is your map for how you plan to make money. Your strategy details the approach you are going to take, which currencies you are going to trade and how you will manage your risk. Without a strategy, you may become one of the 90% of new traders that lose their money.

8. Trading Off-Peak Hours - Professional FX traders, option traders, and hedge funds posses a huge advantage over small retail traders during off-peak hours (between 2200 CET and 1000 CET) as they can hedge their positions and move them around when there is far small trade volume is going through (meaning their risk is smaller). The best advice for trading during off peak hours is simple - don't.

9. The only way is up/down - When the market is on its way up, the market is on its way up. When the market is going down, the market is going down. That's it. There are many systems which analyse past trends, but none that can accurately predict the future. But if you acknowledge to yourself that all that is happening at any time is that the market is simply moving, you'll be amazed at how hard it is to blame anyone else.

10. Trade on the news - Most of the really big market moves occur around news time. Trading volume is high and the moves are significant; this means there is no better time to trade than when news is released. This is when the big players adjust their positions and prices change resulting in a serious currency flow.

11. Exiting Trades - If you place a trade and it's not working out for you, get out. Don't compound your mistake by staying in and hoping for a reversal. If you're in a winning trade, don't talk yourself out of the position because you're bored or want to relieve stress; stress is a natural part of trading; get used to it.

12. Don't trade too short-term - If you are aiming to make less than 20 points profit, don't undertake the trade. The spread you are trading on will make the odds against you far too high.

13. Don't be smart - The most successful traders I know keep their trading simple. They don't analyse all day or research historical trends and track web logs and their results are excellent.

14. Tops and Bottoms - There are no real "bargains" in trading foreign exchange. Trade in the direction the price is going in and you're results will be almost guaranteed to improve.

15. Ignoring the technicals- Understanding whether the market is over-extended long or short is a key indicator of price action. Spikes occur in the market when it is moving all one way.

16. Emotional Trading - Without that all-important strategy, you're trades essentially are thoughts only and thoughts are emotions and a very poor foundation for trading. When most of us are upset and emotional, we don't tend to make the wisest decisions. Don't let your emotions sway you.

17. Confidence - Confidence comes from successful trading. If you lose money early in your trading career it's very difficult to regain it; the trick is not to go off half-cocked; learn the business before you trade. Remember, knowledge is power.
( Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com )