Is It Bottom for EUR/USD for this week ?

12:06 AM (GMT+7)


Dollar light agains Euro today, range move very tight. It can't break previous day low and now seems like it will move up, try to 1.4235 ( this is my opinion). EMA 20 already through EMA 66 but EMA 5 shows price too week to move down, and getting curved up, nearest support should yesterday low at 1.4104, break it would bring EUR/USD deeper to 1.3973. Meanwhile, upper movement will meet barrier at 1.4209 - 1.4235 and strong resistant should at 1.4273 and resistant that hold bullih trend on TF 4 Hour should be 1.4448.




On Time Frame 1 H, RSI already moved above 50, Parabolic SAR already make a sign for begining bullish trend, EMA 5(blue)almost cross up EMA 20 (green) and I don't want to wait because smaller TF already comfirm.

I take one BUY at 1.4166, I put SL at 1.4102 and I let it with open target, if next movement give me more signal to hold and comfirm EUR/USD already bottomed this week I might aim at 1.4326 as my first target.

But this just my plan, market is dynamic and it might change my mind latter

Rising Unemployment Affects Canada’s Dollar Performance

The U.S. dollar pared most of this week’s losses versus its Canadian counterpart as a report today indicated that the number of job cuts in Canada was higher than what economists predicted.
After trading at a 10-month high in the beginning of the week, the Canadian dollar reverted its winning streak and declined even further today as a government report indicated that employment figures shrank much beyond economists forecasts, making the loonie to be traded at a one-week low after the report was published. Commodities and stocks decline influenced by weaker corporate and banking earnings pushed the Canadian currency down this week, as traders fled riskier assets to seek safety in more conservative investments like bonds and currencies like the Japanese yen and the U.S. dollar.
The Canadian dollar was overpriced and today’s job data was the perfect excuse for traders to profit and make the loonie to return to more realistic levels, according to currency specialists. This week, even the Bank of Canada showed concerns regarding the loonie’s rapid rise, and today’s movement could be even be considered adequate for the Canadian economy.
USD/CAD declined sharply after the employment report being traded at 1.0836, a significant rise from yesterday’s rate of 1.0735.
If you want to comment on the Canadian dollar’s recent action or have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to reply below.

American Incomes Head Down, Threatening Recovery in Spending

August 05 Household income in the U.S. is weakening as the influence of the government’s stimulus plan wanes, prompting economists, Federal Reserve officials and a Nobel laureate to warn that consumer spending may struggle.“Consumers have started to change their behavior and they are going to save more,” said Richard Berner, co-head of global economics at Morgan Stanley in New York and a former researcher at the Fed. “You have pressure on wages, you have employment still declining.”Wages and salaries, which drive recoveries in spending, fell 4.7 percent in the 12 months through June, the biggest drop since records began in 1960, according to Commerce Department figures released yesterday. The Obama administration’s tax cuts, extended jobless benefits and a one-time Social Security bonus have helped mask the damage done by the worst employment slump since the Great Depression.Personal incomes, which include interest income, dividends, rents and other payments as well as wages, tumbled 1.3 percent in June, more than forecast and the biggest drop in four years, yesterday’s Commerce report showed. Excluding the effects of the stimulus plan, June incomes would have dropped 0.1 percent after no change in May, according to the report. In May, one-time additional payments to Social Security recipients boosted incomes 1.3 percent.One of every 10 American workers will be without a job by early 2010, economists project, shaking the confidence of those still on payrolls and discouraging spending. It may take as long as 15 years for consumers to fully repair finances battered by the decline in home values, stocks and employment, said Edmund Phelps, winner of the Nobel prize in economics in 2006.Shrinking Net WorthDecreasing pay is not the only hurdle for consumers. Plunging home prices and stocks reduced household net worth by a record $13.9 trillion from the third quarter of 2007 through this year’s first quarter, according to figures from the Fed.“Households are going to have to do an awful lot of rebuilding of their wealth,” Phelps, a professor at Columbia University in New York, said this week in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “Even if that rebuilding goes on at a pretty good clip, it will take 12 or 15 years for households to get to the wealth level that they had several years ago. Consumer demand is going to take a long time to rebuild to normal levels.”In the second half, incomes and spending will be hurt by the loss of transitory factors such as lower fuel prices, decreased tax rates and the one-time payment to retirees, William Dudley, president of the Fed Bank of New York, said in a speech last week.Save More“Consumer spending is unlikely to rise much faster than income” because of the need to boost savings, he said. “Weak income growth will be an effective constraint on the pace of consumer spending.”Companies continue to trim expenses, threatening further cuts in pay and benefits. Tenneco Inc., the world’s largest maker of vehicle-exhaust systems, temporarily lowered pay and hours worked to reduce labor costs by 10 percent. Earlier this year, the Lake Forest, Illinois-based company suspended contributions to employees’ 401(k) retirement accounts and cut pay for the top 50 executives.Government assistance such as the “cash-for-clunkers” program will help postpone the inevitable increase in savings and slowdown in spending as more baby boomers approach retirement, said David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc. in Toronto.“Spending is in desperate need of gimmicks like cash-for- clunkers in order to grow on a short-term basis,” he said.Lifting Auto SalesThe program, which offers as much as $4,500 for trading in older, less fuel-efficient cars, ran through its $1 billion fund in about a week, and Congress is considering adding $2 billion. Auto industry data this week showed sales jumped to an 11.3 million annual pace last month, the highest level since September.Mounting joblessness is among reasons that economists such as Rosenberg say will prompt Americans to save more. Unemployment, already at a 26-year high of 9.5 percent in June, may top 10 percent by early next year, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg last month.Economists estimate that a Labor Department report at the end of the week will show employers cut an additional 328,000 workers from payrolls in July. That would bring the total loss of jobs since the recession began in December 2007 to 6.8 million.The savings rate in June fell to 4.6 percent as incomes dropped, yesterday’s Commerce Department report showed. The rate, which reached a 14-year high of 6.2 percent the previous month, is likely to keep climbing, Rosenberg said. A rate as high as 15 percent can’t be ruled out, he said.“This is a different consumer than we had in the past 20 years,” Rosenberg said. “People are going to increasingly be putting more money into cookie jars, rather than into buying more cookie jars.”

Dollar Bullish on Friday,Will it Continue This Week?

05:14 AM (GMT +7)

Dollar strenght significant on friday, EUR/USD meet my first target and bottomed 1.4154 and closed at 1.4181. My next target should be 1.4100, but for sure I have to wait till EUR/USD give me a clear signal would dollar continue bullish or not. Time frame 4H give a signal that bearish on EUR/USD still in progress, nevertheless, from previous candle that already formed, it formed a spinning top that indicated bear power getting loss it power and might need a bounce up. My opinion supported by TF 1 H, that price already in oversold rea (RSI level 14). Possibility it will move up to 1.4238 - 1.4255. Nearest resistant that hold price turn to bullish back at 1.4273/80 if this could be through I will reconsider it and might will change my option to buy. But as long as price stay bellow, my main idea sell for EUR/USD.

So it is time for wait and see. I'm not decide what I want to do beside, this is monday morning, start of asian market would not good to determine EUR/USD direction. I will update this post soon after I make decision

TF 4H EUR/USD's Chart

TF 1H EUR/USD's Chart

UPDATE1 - 02.19 PM (GMT+7)


RSI(14) steady bellow 50, 2 bearish candle already formed evening star on friday, EMA 5(blue) through EMA 66 (red) and I think EMA 20 (green) will follow soon based on indication from Time Frame 1 Hours.








On Time frame 1 H, RSI(14) steady bellow 50, EMA 5(blue) and 20 (green) steady moved bellow EMA 66 (red) and after try to going up ema 5 failed to get through ema 20 wich mean pull back up already loss the momentum and I think it's big chance to go down, to re test 1.4154 and if steady I hope it will push lower to 1.4072.




I already take one position, sell EUR/USD at 1.4205 a fiew minutes ago, my target at 1.4100. I put stop loss at 1.4255. I will check it before London session closed


UPDATE 2 - August 11, 2009 - 02.05 AM (GMT+7)

During US session, I've got a trouble with my internet's connection. But on midnight my internet connection already fixed, and when I look at my chart, price already moved near to my target. I'm wait but is it not meet my target, it just reach 1.4104 and then EUR/USD seems like want to bounce up. I don't want to take a risk during instability internet connection so I already cut (hard exit) at 1.4131. I'm still see bearish but I will wait on next day for next strategy and for sure. For now 74 pips is not to bad for me.