INTERNET PROBLEM

Having trouble log in into blogger account lately. Forex is not going anyway at the moment. Up and down it is still at the same level.

Currently I am watching for a certain level in GbpUsd. 1.4650 is the level I am waiting for. Believe it or not, I have not traded this week. Today GU nearly hit my stop order. I am still waiting

NOW I KNOW WHY PEOPLE USE APPLE MAC

I was doing some graphic editing these days. Just as a hobby. It seems that everytime I try to render in Photoshop, my pc will shutdown. It just switch off the power and everything is blank.

So I decided to investigate on the cause of the shutdown. After monitoring the temperature while doing some Photoshop rendering. My CPU temperature climbed up to 94C and my north bridge chipset is at 124C and the system will shutdown.

Imagine the component of your PC is reaching 124C. That is higher than point of boiling for water. It is scary sometimes thinking that the pc is under my table, just beside my leg and it is burning hot. Hopefully nothing will ever explode and take my leg with it. Im typing this with one leg on the chair just in case.

If you are using a pc, there is nothing to worry about. Under normal usage, the cpu is always below 40C. Mine is sleeping at 33C now. Its just that when you do some heavy calculation stuff that everything turns up red hot. So you can just surf the net, play some 3d games, watch dvd etc. Those normal usage do not require heavy calculation and your PC is half awake. Btw, 3d games is not a heavy usage. My pc can run Quake Wars with everything turned to max for hours. No problem there.

I will not use photoshop again on this pc. This is my power pc and it is running hot. I am using my 2nd pc to render all my photoshop graphic. Its been an hour and my 2nd pc still not finish rendering a 14Mega Pixel picture. This pc however can do it in 10 minutes. Talk about difference in power.

Next I am going to buy an Apple Mac for all my rendering needs. So my house will be full of computers. Btw I have 3 desktop and a laptop now working in the house. So if I add another Mac, I can turn my house into a cyber cafe.

As for Forex, its going up but at the moment the direction is down. So be on the look out for a sell but keep in mind, the long term trade is a buy. Forex is not a straight road and I feel like Yoda speaking right now. How can I say sell but at the time look for buy. You know it when its there. I assure you.

THESE ARE HARD TIMES.

The Market is now moving with unexpected turns. These are hard times. News traders have long gone. These kind of market isnt moving with the news. The only ones left are fundamental long term traders and technical traders. These are the traders who will survive in these kind of situation.

I have heard of quiet a numbers of blown accounts now. For these people dont feel bad. The world is not againts you. Just have to wait for a better time to enter the market.

I for myself have taken the long term trades only. Short term trades is out of the question now. Those sharp and sudden turns will kill any short term traders. It took me a while to realize, fortunately my loss is small and I manage to change tactics in a short period of time. At the moment I only take long position because that is what the daily chart is saying. All managed accounts is currently on hold. No more live trades for managed accounts. The risk is not very healthy right now.

These are hard times. The market is ever changing but at the moment the changes is greater than before. You need to be on your feet and react accordingly to changes of the market. Survive this and you will survive a long time in the market.

Ranging Market

In long term, this is a ranging market. You can see it from 4H. In medium term, this is a turning market. It is in a process of going for a long trade. That is the direction but I do not know if the trend will hold the direction.

Last week I manage to profit but only by a little. I lost a lot on Friday but manage to cover the losses and gain a little profit in the last minute. Have to stay up till 4am just to cover the losses.

Its a hard life becoming a trader. Is this the life you wanted? Sometimes I wonder that myself.

RANGING PERIOD

Its ranging period again and its driving me nuts. My SL for EU got hit after 3 days. Got a few chance of closing it in profit but I refuse. Talk about being greedy now I am down by 50 pips.

This time around, big move belongs to GBP pairs. Steady move belongs to AUD pairs. Take your pick. You want big and risky, or small but safer. Safe here refer to your insurance in forex called Stop Loss.

At the moment GBP pairs has hit a brick wall on its way up. Most probably it wont break it or drop down again. Either way, a drop down again is unavoidable. That is where i plan to take my entry. Long position is looking good now but only after one more correction.

A UNIQUE CONDITION

At the time of writing EU is in a unique condition. 30M = 4H = D1. They are all pointing up but a bit heavy on the downside. This type of condition is very dangerous. It is all based on market sentiment.

At the moment the market is still trying to push EU down but EU has aligned itself for a shoot up. Just be carefull where you are standing when the big dogs enter the arena.

CRAPPY CONNECTION. RANGING PERIOD

Sorry for the long period of no update on this blog. It seems that internet connection is really bad. At the office I am using Streamyx. Connection is crappy as usual. At home I am using Celcom 3G. Its better but its slow. Maybe my home is not well covered by the 3G network.

As for forex, EurUsd, GbpUsd, AudUsd, EurJpy and GbpJpy is heading up now but not to worry, there is still time. On the long term only EurUsd looks good for a long trade. I am currently holding long EurUsd @ 1.2640 with a stop loss of 50 pip. This is a long term trade, hopefully the move upwards will take a long time and lots of pips on the way.

As for the other pairs, it is heading up but its not an uptrend yet. They will be entering the ranging period now. So there will be plenty of chances for entry. If all these pairs maintained their direction we will see a change in trend in the longer term trades.

I will list key levels for guidelines. These key levels are good for both sell and buy position. Treat them as guidelines for entry in either direction.

EurUsd : 1.2670
GbpUsd : 1.5050
AudUsd : 1.6450
EurJpy : 119.20
GbpJpy : 141.50

These key levels are always changing. Since most of these pairs are entering the ranging zone so you can use these key level for this whole week. As for me I will be looking for a long trade from these levels that is if the current direction stays.

Good things are simple things. If you have a system, make sure it is simple. With simple indication you can make clear decision.

Kagi Forex Charts Indicator

The word "Kagi" comes from the Japanese art of woodblock printing. A kagi or "key" is the L-shaped guide in a woodblock that a printer used to line up the paper for printing. Because of this, Kagi charts are sometimes referred to as "Key charts." Kagi charts were popularized by Steve Nison in his book Beyond Candlesticks.

The thickness of the Kagi line changes depending on price action. The thick line is called the yang line and the thin line is called the yin line. The locations where the line changed from moving higher to moving lower are called "shoulders" and the locations where the line changed from moving lower to moving higher are called "waists". Whenever a yin (thin) line moves above the previous shoulder, it turns into a yang (thick) line. Similarly, whenever a yang line moves below the previous waist, it turns into a yin line.

The Kagi line will continue to move up (or down) until prices reverse by a specified amount. When that happens, a short horizontal line is added as well as a new vertical line which extends to the new closing price. There are several ways to specify the reversal amount - in absolute points, as a percentage, or by using the Average True Range of recent prices.

Kagi charts are price charts with thick and thin vertical lines connected by short horizontal lines. Just like P&F charts, Kagi charts only add a new vertical line when prices have reversed enough to cancel the current uptrend or downtrend. Until such a reversal occurs, a Kagi chart will only move up (or down) in its current column. Kagi charts do not have constantly spaced time axes.

The simplest way to interpret Kagi charts can be summed up by Steve Nison's expression Buy on yang, sell on yin. When the Kagi line goes from thin to thick, prices have just exceeded their previous important high - that's a bullish signal. The opposite is also true. When the Kagi line goes from thick to thin, prices have just fallen below their previous low, not a good sign for things to come.

Standard support/resistance, trend and chart pattern analysis techniques can also be used with Kagi charts. In fact it is often easier to locate strong support or resistance levels on Kagi charts because of their "clean" appearance.

Another interpretation technique mentioned by Steve Nison is to look for a sequence of nine (mostly consecutive) shoulders or waists. Traders look for strong counter-moves soon after the ninth shoulder or waist appears.

Parameters

There are three ways to specify the reversal amount that is used in the construction of a Kagi chart: Absolute points, Percentage, and Average True Range (ATR).
Absolute Points

With the "Absolute Points" method, you specify the number of points that a stock must reverse before a change in the Kagi line occurs. The advantage of this method is that it is very easy to understand and predict where reversals will occur. The disadvantage is that the point value needs to be different for high priced stocks than for low priced stocks. Typically you will need to choose a value that is roughly 1/20th the average price of the stock during the time frame you want to chart. Common values include 1, 2, 4, and 10.

Important Note: The Default for Kagi "Pts" method is currently 14 which is too large for most stocks. You'll need to change it to a smaller number to get a useful chart.
Percentage

The "Percentage" method causes a reversal each time prices move more that the percentage that you specified. This has the advantage of not needing to change the setting if the value of the stock changes significantly during the time period being charted. The disadvantage is that it isn't easy to predict exactly where the next reversal will occur.
Average True Range (ATR)

The "Average True Range (ATR)" method uses the value of the ATR indicator to determine where the next reversal should occur. The ATR indicator is designed to ignore the normal volatility of a stock and thus it can "automatically" find good reversal levels regardless of the value or volatility of the stock selected. ATR with a value of 14 is the default value for Kagi charts and should generate a very usable chart in most cases.

Candlesticks Forex Chart Patern Indicator

Single candlesticks and candlestick patterns can be used to confirm or mark support levels. Such a support level could be new after an extended decline or confirm a previous support level within a trading range. In a trading range, candlesticks can help choose entry points for buying near support and selling near resistance. The list below contains some, but not all, of the candlesticks and candlestick patterns that can be used to together with support levels. The bullish reversal patterns are marked.

Bullish reversal candlesticks and patterns suggest that early selling pressure was overcome and buying pressure emerged for a strong finish. Such bullish price action indicates strong demand and that support may be found.

The inverted hammer, long white candlestick and marubozu show increased buying pressure rather than an actual price reversal. With its long upper shadow, an inverted hammer signifies intra-session buying interest that faded by the finish. Even though the security finished well below its high, the ability of buyers to push prices higher during the session is bullish. The long white candlestick and white marubozu signify sustained buying pressure in which prices advanced sharply from open to close. Signs of increased buying pressure bode well for support.

The doji and spinning top denote indecision and are generally considered neutral. These non-reversal patterns indicate a decrease in selling pressure, but not necessarily a revival of buying pressure. After a decline, the appearance of a doji or spinning top denotes a sudden letup in selling pressure. A stand-off has developed between buyers and sellers, and a support level may form.

Electronic Data Systems (EDS) traded in a range bound by 58 and 75 for about 4 months at the beginning of 2000. Support at 58 was first established in early January and resistance at 75 in late January. The stock declined to its previous support level in early March, formed a long legged doji and later a spinning top (red circle). Notice that the doji formed immediately after a long black Marubozu (long black candlestick without upper or lower shadows). This doji marked a sudden decrease in relative selling pressure and support held. Support was tested again in April and this test was also marked by a long legged doji (blue arrow).

Broadcom (BRCM)[Brcm] formed a bullish engulfing pattern to mark a new support level just below 210 (green oval) in late July 2000. A few days later a long white candlestick formed and engulfed the previous 4 candlesticks. The combination of the bullish engulfing and long white candlestick served to reinforce the validity of support around 208. The stock has since tested support around 208 once in early September and twice in October. A piercing pattern (red arrow) formed in early October and a large hammer in late October.

Medtronic (MDT)[Mdt] established support around 46 in late February with a spinning top (red arrow) and early March with a harami. The stock declined sharply in April and formed a hammer to confirm support at 46 (green arrow). After a reaction rally to resistance around 57, the stock again declined sharply and again found support around 46 (blue arrow). The black candlestick with the long lower shadow marked support, but the body was too big to qualify as a hammer.

BREAKING THE TREND

At the moment, majoriti of pairs are struggling to break the trend. From my analysis, only EurJpy and AudJpy have broken the trend. The rest will be in ranging mode until the trend is broken.

AudJpy @ 61.70
EurJpy @ 123.80

Those are entry point for short. Those are guideline only. You should be looking for better entry unless you have the guts for -ve pips

The rest of the pairs are ranging at the moment until the trendline broken. Do enter at will but no long term trade. Scalping mode from now on until a new trend is born.

Good luck

STOP LOSS HUNTING. THE MARKET IS CRUEL

Sometimes it happen but this is one rare ocassion and I am really stunned. I was holding a long position on GJ. I am in profit of about 100 pip with a stop loss of 50 pip from my entry point. Guess what. The market turned down 150 pip in one move, hit my stop loss and now its flying.

This has nothing to do with the broker, it is just the market is cruel. No matter who, you will get hit sooner or later. In order to hit me, the market has to move 150 pip againts the trend. What an honour I must say. 150 pip is much more than most people TP.

Enough said, all pairs should have a steady climb from now on. If you are holding long at the moment, make it long term.

MY HOBBY

Spent sometime at the beach yesterday. Taking a few pictures here and there. I have cropped the pictures into a widescreen wallpaper. Maybe some of you may like it. Its not a professional job but for me its ok.

ITS FRIDAY EVERYONE. GET LOST

Its Friday and time to get lost. If any of you still holding long position from this morning, its time to close it and get lost. Go get yourself lost in a pub, disco or something.

Im going off now. See you next week.

Btw, 500 pip move by GJ is unbelieveable but its Friday, anything goes on friday

FOREX TEMPLATE FOR GRAB

I am thinking of uploading my system to the internet so that it will be available for everyone. It will only be the basic system. The rest you have to figure out yourself.

Can anyone tell me where is the best place to upload and share files. I intend to upload a MT4 template and a text document explaining how it works.

Suggestion anyone??

FRIDAY AGAIN BUT WITH A LITTLE TWIST

As I said before, Friday is not a good day to trade but what if you have a signal to reverse everthing on Friday morning. Will you take it?

AUDUSD did drop down an enormous amount. I hope some of you profit from it as I posted earlier asking you to find a place to short as good as humanly possible. Now its changing direction. Unfortunately it happen on friday morning. As we all know, Friday is for those short term trader to take their profit. Money will flow out of the market leaving it with a very low trading volume. Anything can happen on Friday.

Trade on your own risk

Find Opportunities of Trading the Forex Hedged Grid System

I have seen the hedged grid system been used successfully (and highly unsuccessfully) over the last few years. Unfortunately the failures tend to discourage traders from taking advantage of this great system. I have found that the failures are mainly due to ignorance, impatience and greed (common reasons for trading failure).

In a nutshell the grid system uses the following methodology. You start by buying and selling a currency. When the price moves a predetermined distance (grid leg) you cash in the positive leg, leave the negative leg and buy and sell again. Sooner or later the system goes positive and you would then cash in when it is positive.

This is a brief summary of the content of our free hedged grid trading course available on expert-4x.com. Please refer to this course for more details of how money is made. The attraction is that the system is reasonably mechanical, can be programmed and does not take much supervision as exclusively entry orders are used.

Money is made when the price retraces 100%, 50%, 33% at various levels. This starts looking like a strategy that supports the Fibonacci concept. The grid system is also based on the nature of the market to trade sideways 80% of the time and to trend 20% of the time.

The dangers are that what if the price does not retrace and continues to trend. The Grid system can not make money in a trending market — full stop. One has to realize that. You therefore need Strategies to minimize damage during these periods:-

Firstly I have found that the biggest mistake made by traders is that they select a very small grid leg sizes e.g. 20 to 30 pips. This is a recipe for disaster. The trick is to use big leg sizes between 150 and 300 pips. What this does is that it sometimes turns a trending phase into movement in a sideways market. I would typically use 300 pips for the GBPJPY and 150 pips for the EURUSD for instance.

Secondly there is no rule that says that the legs have to be the same size. So I change my leg sizes in trending markets to be even bigger. If I started with 150 for the 1st leg I would go to 200 for the 2nd leg and 250 for the 3rd leg etc. This makes sure that I am carrying less loss making transactions in a trend.

Thirdly — sometimes it is wise to increase the number of lots with the trend compared to the numbers against the trend in a good trend. However be aware of having the same number of sell and buy transactions. All you will have done was lock in your current status in a 100% hedge.

Fourthly — This is the biggest change and most important one that I personally have made in my grid trading strategy. Always cash in all your transactions when your system is positive and when the price reaches the end of one of your grid legs. By cashing in you are reducing the risk of carrying negative lots in a trending market. This also gives you an opportunity to re-assess the market conditions.

Fifthly:- Cash in a start again is always an option. One of my strategies is to cash in all my open positions when the 3rd leg of my grid is reached and start again. Experience has taught me that this is a short term pain that goes away very quickly and is soon forgotten.

People that have traded the grid system will immediately see how the above approaches will reduce the risks of exponential losses building up in a strongly trending market. Please feel free to contact Mary McArthur at marymcarthur@expert4x.com for clarification on any items discussed above. She has numerous examples of successful applications of grid trading

This article is part of a series and many more will follow on Grid trading, money management and Forex Trading Strategies.

by Mary McArthur

Mary McArthur (marymacarthur@expert4x.com) is an Expert4x trader who provides technical input into the services provided by http://www.forextradersupportservices.com. As an expert, she authored a free hedged grid trading course on www.expert4x.com.


Article Source:
http://www.earnforex.com/articles/the_opportunities_of_trading_the_forex_hedged_grid_system.php

Do You Happy with Your Forex Strategies System?

So, you now have a trading system. You devised it, you tested it and you are already using it to trade the market. You may have automated it or you may still have to put your buy and sell orders manually, but for the moment, you really have nothing much to do apart from following your system with ironclad self-discipline. The question is: Now what do you do?

If you are one of those traders who reached this stage, the chances are you may have spent your last few months or years arriving at your system and now that you have it, you have spare time. With this spare time, you may find yourself watching the market day in and day out.

The danger with doing this is that you create opportunities to feel emotional about every single one of your trades and this may lead to undoing the results of your hard work. You begin to feel elated when you are making money and you might start breaking your rules. Conversely, you may feel down when you are losing money and you start doubting your system and thus, begin disobeying your trading rules. The problem might be that you have a good system and you are simply not giving it enough time for it to work.

If you think this is happening to you, consider that it might be best that you only watch the market when your trading system requires you to. You should also consider other ways in which you can best fill your spare time to serve your need to work, find your purpose and create a meaningful life. You must have other interests and ambitions.

Personally, I have always wanted to create a business that would serve the planet and millions of people so I can leave behind a legacy when I die. I know this sounds very grandiose but I know that you, the reader, also have similar aspirations deep inside. I know this because we are both human beings and human beings have the need for self-actualisation and self-transcendence (spiritual needs).

As a disciplined trader, you have many skills you can apply to business. You create systems, you are analytical, you are creative, you solve problems and you are results-oriented. These are all strengths that you can apply in the world of business. There are many opportunities out there for you to apply yourself and the lessons you learn from trading the financial markets.

by Marquez Comelab

Marquez Comelab is a private trader in Melbourne, Australia. He is the author of The Part-Time Currency Trader, a book on how to develop trading strategies. He is also the founding editor of The Part-Time Investor Magazine: an online magazine for traders and investors. See http://www.marquezcomelab.com.

Article Source:
http://www.earnforex.com/articles/i_am_happy_with_my_system_whats_next.php

Earn Profit From Forex by Buying and Selling at the Same Time

This article is one of a series which looks at the advantages and weaknesses of trading using the hedged, grid trading system to trade volatile markets.

We will look at how money can be made by breaking a number of trading truths or principles; * cut your losses and let your profit run and * there is nothing to gained by entering into buy and sell deals at the same time.

The hedged grid trading system uses the principle that one should be able to cash in at a gain no matter which way the market moves. No stops are therefore required at all. The only way this is logically possible is that one would have a buy and sell active at the same time. Most traders will say that that is trading suicide but let's take some to look at this more closely.

Let's say that a trader enters the market with a buy and sell active when a currency is at a level of say 100. The price then moves to 200. The buy will then be positive by 100 and the sell will be negative by 100. At this point we start breaking trading rules. We cash in our positive buy and the gain of 100 goes to our account. The sell is now carrying a loss of -100.

The grid system requires one to make sure that cash in on any movement in the market. To do this one would again enter into a buy and a sell transaction. Now, for convenience, let's assume that the price moves back to level 100.

The second sell has now gone positive by 100 and the second buy is carrying a loss of -100. According to the rules one would cash the sell in and another 100 will be added to your account. That brings the total cashed in at this point to 200.

Now the first sell that remained active has moved from level 200 where it was -100 to level 100 where it is now breaking even.

The 4 transactions added together now magically show a gain:- 1st buy cashed in +100, 2nd sell cashed in +100, 1st sell now breaking even and the 2nd buy is -100. This gives an overall a gain of 100 in total. We can liquidate all the transactions and have some champagne.

There are many, many other market movements that turn this strange "buy and sell at the same time" activity into gains. These will be covered in future articles and are covered in a free grid trading course which is available at the expert-4x.com website for those traders whose curiosity has been aroused.

by Mary McArthur

Mary McArthur (marymacarthur@expert4x.com) is an Expert4x trader who provides technical input into the services provided by http://www.forextradersupportservices.com. As an expert, she authored a free hedged grid trading course on www.expert4x.com.

Article Source:
http://www.earnforex.com/articles/forex_profits_by_buying_and_selling_at_the_same_time.php

Choosing The Best Forex Trading Software

When it comes to forex trading the forex software you choose is essential. There are so many forex trading companies all competing for your business that choosing the right forex software can be quite a difficult task. Most of the forex software products available offers live online forex trading platforms but what other components are vital when it comes to your forex software.

Key Elements For Your Forex Software

Before purchasing any forex software there are a few essential items that should be included. The most important is security and your online forex trading software should include a 128 bit SSL encryption which will prevent hackers from accessing any of your personal details and information such as your account balance, transaction history, etc.

Providing the best security for your forex trading will include a company that provides 24 hour technical server support for your forex software, 24 hour maintenance should anything go wrong, daily backups of all information, and a security system that has been designed to prevent any unauthorized access. Along with these security protocols there are also some forex trading companies that use smart cards and fingerprint scanners to ensure that only their employees can have access to their servers.

Another important factor when it comes to choosing your forex software is to check what the company’s downtime is like. When it comes to trading forex and particularly your online forex trading you need to ensure that the forex software you choose is reliable and available 24 hours a day. The forex software you choose for your forex trading should also have technical support available at all times should your session be cut short.

Ensuring that all the above features are listed in the forex software you choose will help to ensure your forex trading success.

Article Source:
http://www.ezinearticles.com/?Forex-Software---Choosing-the-Best&id=198964

Do you have what it takes to become a successful Forex Trader?

Forex trading, or any trading for that matter, is an occupation that requires experience and the accumulation of proficiency not unlike any other highly skilled profession. Whether you are a leading executive at a major publically traded company, a professional golfer or trading from your kitchen table, there are 5 key ingredients that one must possess in order to become successful.

1. You must be Passionate about what you do.

As Forex traders we all face one unique set of circumstances that does not exist in any other profession. We get rewarded for when we succeed and equally punished when we don’t! Could you image a corporate worker one quarter receiving a significant accomplishment bonus and the next quarter actually getting money taken from their paycheck for missing performance targets? Not on your life!

We do as Forex traders and that is why passion for what you do will carry you through the tough times that are part of your trading business. Asked yourself why you trade currencies and would you still do it if Forex were not potentially lucrative? Your answers will be quite revealing. You’ve got to feel your passion for trading!

2. You have to Apply Yourself and work hard at it.

I talk to so many people that enter into Forex trading with the aspiration of getting rich quick. Without putting the time and energy into really getting good at trading I see them jump from strategy to strategy looking for the goose that will lay the golden egg and eventually quitting while blaming everything else, except the true cause.

I got news for you – you are the goose and your Forex education is the golden egg. The magic has always resided with the magician and not some strategy. Work hard at trading and the rewards will eventually come your way. Remember what Tiger Woods said, “Funny, the harder I work the luckier I get.” Apply yourself as a trader and it will be no accident when your account begins to blossom.

3. You must Focus to really get good at what you do.

Now here is the hurdle most Forex traders struggle to get over. You have the passion and you are applying yourself to your trade, now focus and really get good at just at what you are doing. Be the expert to the experts at just that one thing. Become the master of a strategy or risk management methodologies. Really focus on getting good at it.

Stop jumping around or getting pulled from the last “latest and greatest” into the next “latest and greatest” and focus on one aspect of Forex trading and know it inside out. Know it strengths and weakness. Set your sights on becoming expert on just one aspect of trading and watch it spill over in all other aspects for your currency trading. This is the time to fail forward fast, use every setback as a learning opportunity that will propel you 3-steps ahead!

4. You must Push Yourself beyond the point everyone else might have quite.

In Forex Trading this is simple. Assume there is someone on the other side of your trade that is pushing themselves and sharpening their edge. To be successful you must you must do the same thing. Now is the time to examine your mental edge. Do you know the single most critical factor in any currency trade? It is you, the trader! Sharpening you mental edge is the most difficult aspect of trading, but also the most rewarding.

Start with your Forex education and gain the self-awareness necessary to maximize your strengths and suppress your weaknesses. Any expert will tell you that trading is 80% mental. It’s time to sharpen your trading to the razor’s edge and you do this through Forex education. A constant and never ending process that will become the cornerstone of your Forex experience.

5. You must, without wavering, be Determined and Persist to your objective.

You will fail. I can state that emphatically. However, you will not be defeated unless you allow your failures to control your trading. It is the old adage; failure is not falling of your horse, failure is refusing to get back on. Your success depends on your ability to dismiss the criticism, rejection, self-doubt and pressures associated with Forex trading.

Defining what is a winning trade, losing trade and bad trade will go a long way into developing you as a successful trader. Without the determination and persistence in all aspects of your trading life, obstacle will definitely appear closer and larger than they actually are.

Take a moment and assess yourself and your trading. Do you have the key elements to succeed? Which areas are presents development opportunities? When conducting a self-evaluation it is critical to be totally upfront and honest with yourself. After all, you will only be dishonest with yourself. One of the most interesting observations you can make is that all key success factors are interwoven. One factor supports the other. This is why your Forex education is a continuous journey of forex strategy, money management and self-mastery. Set these factors as your Forex education goals and take your currency trading to new heights.

Happy Trading!!

Forex Journey

Do you have what it takes to become a successful Forex Trader?

Forex trading, or any trading for that matter, is an occupation that requires experience and the accumulation of proficiency not unlike any other highly skilled profession. Whether you are a leading executive at a major publically traded company, a professional golfer or trading from your kitchen table, there are 5 key ingredients that one must possess in order to become successful.

1. You must be Passionate about what you do.

As Forex traders we all face one unique set of circumstances that does not exist in any other profession. We get rewarded for when we succeed and equally punished when we don’t! Could you image a corporate worker one quarter receiving a significant accomplishment bonus and the next quarter actually getting money taken from their paycheck for missing performance targets? Not on your life!

We do as Forex traders and that is why passion for what you do will carry you through the tough times that are part of your trading business. Asked yourself why you trade currencies and would you still do it if Forex were not potentially lucrative? Your answers will be quite revealing. You’ve got to feel your passion for trading!

2. You have to Apply Yourself and work hard at it.

I talk to so many people that enter into Forex trading with the aspiration of getting rich quick. Without putting the time and energy into really getting good at trading I see them jump from strategy to strategy looking for the goose that will lay the golden egg and eventually quitting while blaming everything else, except the true cause.

I got news for you – you are the goose and your Forex education is the golden egg. The magic has always resided with the magician and not some strategy. Work hard at trading and the rewards will eventually come your way. Remember what Tiger Woods said, “Funny, the harder I work the luckier I get.” Apply yourself as a trader and it will be no accident when your account begins to blossom.

3. You must Focus to really get good at what you do.

Now here is the hurdle most Forex traders struggle to get over. You have the passion and you are applying yourself to your trade, now focus and really get good at just at what you are doing. Be the expert to the experts at just that one thing. Become the master of a strategy or risk management methodologies. Really focus on getting good at it.

Stop jumping around or getting pulled from the last “latest and greatest” into the next “latest and greatest” and focus on one aspect of Forex trading and know it inside out. Know it strengths and weakness. Set your sights on becoming expert on just one aspect of trading and watch it spill over in all other aspects for your currency trading. This is the time to fail forward fast, use every setback as a learning opportunity that will propel you 3-steps ahead!

4. You must Push Yourself beyond the point everyone else might have quite.

In Forex Trading this is simple. Assume there is someone on the other side of your trade that is pushing themselves and sharpening their edge. To be successful you must you must do the same thing. Now is the time to examine your mental edge. Do you know the single most critical factor in any currency trade? It is you, the trader! Sharpening you mental edge is the most difficult aspect of trading, but also the most rewarding.

Start with your Forex education and gain the self-awareness necessary to maximize your strengths and suppress your weaknesses. Any expert will tell you that trading is 80% mental. It’s time to sharpen your trading to the razor’s edge and you do this through Forex education. A constant and never ending process that will become the cornerstone of your Forex experience.

5. You must, without wavering, be Determined and Persist to your objective.

You will fail. I can state that emphatically. However, you will not be defeated unless you allow your failures to control your trading. It is the old adage; failure is not falling of your horse, failure is refusing to get back on. Your success depends on your ability to dismiss the criticism, rejection, self-doubt and pressures associated with Forex trading.

Defining what is a winning trade, losing trade and bad trade will go a long way into developing you as a successful trader. Without the determination and persistence in all aspects of your trading life, obstacle will definitely appear closer and larger than they actually are.

Take a moment and assess yourself and your trading. Do you have the key elements to succeed? Which areas are presents development opportunities? When conducting a self-evaluation it is critical to be totally upfront and honest with yourself. After all, you will only be dishonest with yourself. One of the most interesting observations you can make is that all key success factors are interwoven. One factor supports the other. This is why your Forex education is a continuous journey of forex strategy, money management and self-mastery. Set these factors as your Forex education goals and take your currency trading to new heights.

Happy Trading!!

Forex Journey

Trust Yourself

When you turn on the TV (especially mainstream media) you are inundated with news of the demise of the dollar. Business news, national news and even your local news channels are leading into events with reports of the dollar and the economy. Analysts are featured and opinions are smattered across the airwaves in an attempt to provide an oracle response to current economic events.

Beware the source and follow your system.

In these volatile times it is easy to get caught up in the hype provide by all the news media and analyst. It is natural to want to look for guidance. Remember to trust your system and more important trust yourself. You, after all, are the single largest determinant of your success.

Your approach should remain consistent, almost impervious to the events occurring because you follow your plan with discipline and ruthless detail to executing at optimum performance.

Be disciplined and follow your plan. If market conditions don’t suite your style – sit this one out until conditions provide your with your personal edge!

Happy Trading!!

ForexJourney

Trust Yourself

When you turn on the TV (especially mainstream media) you are inundated with news of the demise of the dollar. Business news, national news and even your local news channels are leading into events with reports of the dollar and the economy. Analysts are featured and opinions are smattered across the airwaves in an attempt to provide an oracle response to current economic events.

Beware the source and follow your system.

In these volatile times it is easy to get caught up in the hype provide by all the news media and analyst. It is natural to want to look for guidance. Remember to trust your system and more important trust yourself. You, after all, are the single largest determinant of your success.

Your approach should remain consistent, almost impervious to the events occurring because you follow your plan with discipline and ruthless detail to executing at optimum performance.

Be disciplined and follow your plan. If market conditions don’t suite your style – sit this one out until conditions provide your with your personal edge!

Happy Trading!!

ForexJourney

How to Adopt the Traits of a Successful Trader

Hey Traders,

Here's a post by Heather Johnson that will serve you well in your trading – Enjoy!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Not all Forex traders were cut from the same cloth, but the most successful investors do have several things in common. Whether you are a newcomer to trading or you are a seasoned pro who is trying to improve your game plan, the following suggestions may help you out. Below are five ways to evolve into a successful trader:

1. Become a lifelong student – Never stop learning about the business you are in. If you think you know everything about the Forex market, then think again. The successful trader is a lifelong student who constantly absorbs new information about the ever-evolving climate of Forex trading.

2. Be courageous – It's hard to overcome your fears when you are dealing with an unpredictable investment. Even if you are equipped with extensive knowledge about the market, you still have to put your money at risk every day. Reserve a small amount of apprehension (just enough to keep you sensible), but don't hesitate at every turn.

3. Hone your math skills – You are wading through a sea of mathematical information every day when you look over your charts. The most successful traders know how to take that large amount of information and pull out necessary information.

4. Be patient – Become a long-term investor and put all notions of overnight success to rest. You must adopt a stoic attitude, as you make the most informed decisions about your business and leave the rest to fate.

5. Learn to love trading – Maybe you already do love trading and that's why you are involved with Forex. However, many people are either too wrought with anxiety to enjoy it or merely see it as a job. If you don't like trading, don't trade. A great trader will love the roller coaster ride he/she is on.

Are the above suggestions obvious? Perhaps, but many of us take a wrong turn somewhere and need some simple advice to get us back on track. In order to stay on top of your game, you will need to constantly reinvent yourself, as there is no world that calls for flexibility more than the Forex market.

About the Author:

Heather Johnson is a freelance finance and economics writer, as well as a regular contributor for CurrencyTrading.net, a site for currency trading and forex trading
information. Heather welcomes comments and freelancing job inquiries at her email address heatherjohnson2323@gmail.com .


ForexJourney.com

Happy Trading!!

How to Adopt the Traits of a Successful Trader

Hey Traders,

Here's a post by Heather Johnson that will serve you well in your trading – Enjoy!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Not all Forex traders were cut from the same cloth, but the most successful investors do have several things in common. Whether you are a newcomer to trading or you are a seasoned pro who is trying to improve your game plan, the following suggestions may help you out. Below are five ways to evolve into a successful trader:

1. Become a lifelong student – Never stop learning about the business you are in. If you think you know everything about the Forex market, then think again. The successful trader is a lifelong student who constantly absorbs new information about the ever-evolving climate of Forex trading.

2. Be courageous – It's hard to overcome your fears when you are dealing with an unpredictable investment. Even if you are equipped with extensive knowledge about the market, you still have to put your money at risk every day. Reserve a small amount of apprehension (just enough to keep you sensible), but don't hesitate at every turn.

3. Hone your math skills – You are wading through a sea of mathematical information every day when you look over your charts. The most successful traders know how to take that large amount of information and pull out necessary information.

4. Be patient – Become a long-term investor and put all notions of overnight success to rest. You must adopt a stoic attitude, as you make the most informed decisions about your business and leave the rest to fate.

5. Learn to love trading – Maybe you already do love trading and that's why you are involved with Forex. However, many people are either too wrought with anxiety to enjoy it or merely see it as a job. If you don't like trading, don't trade. A great trader will love the roller coaster ride he/she is on.

Are the above suggestions obvious? Perhaps, but many of us take a wrong turn somewhere and need some simple advice to get us back on track. In order to stay on top of your game, you will need to constantly reinvent yourself, as there is no world that calls for flexibility more than the Forex market.

About the Author:

Heather Johnson is a freelance finance and economics writer, as well as a regular contributor for CurrencyTrading.net, a site for currency trading and forex trading
information. Heather welcomes comments and freelancing job inquiries at her email address heatherjohnson2323@gmail.com .


ForexJourney.com

Happy Trading!!

Why the Fed is such a Lousy Wizard of Oz

Another interesting articles from my friends over at Elliottwave.

********************************

Why the Fed is Such a Lousy Wizard of Oz
By Susan C. Walker, Elliott Wave InternationalSeptember 7, 2007

Central bankers who "follow the yellow brick road" end up in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, every Labor Day weekend for their annual symposium sponsored by – who else? – the Kansas City Fed. (Who can forget Judy Garland saying to her little dog, "Toto, I've got a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore," in the 1939 movie, The Wizard of Oz?)

The Jackson Hole Resort serves as the Federal Reserve's equivalent of the Emerald City, as Fed governors and presidents meet with central bankers and economists from around the world to discuss economic issues. This year, the symposium focused on housing and monetary policy. Usually, the Fed chairman kicks off the symposium and, this year, the new chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, did the honors. He closed his speech with these words:

"The interaction of housing, housing finance, and economic activity has for years been of central importance for understanding the behavior of the economy, and it will continue to be central to our thinking as we try to anticipate economic and financial developments."

Then came the other speeches. And it seems that some of the guests in Emerald City were waiting for their chance to pull back the curtain and prove that the Wonderful Wizard of Oz isn't such a wizard after all. Bloomberg reported that "Federal Reserve officials, wrestling with a housing recession that jeopardizes U.S. growth, got an earful from critics at a weekend retreat, arguing they should use regulation and interest rates to prevent asset-price bubbles."

Apparently, one academic paper presented at Jackson Hole graded the Fed an 'F' for the way it has handled the repercussions from the rise and fall of the housing market.

Truth be told, these folks are a little late to the table as critics of the Fed. We're glad they're joining us, but here's what they still haven't learned: It isn't because the Federal Reserve messes up by allowing credit, asset and stock bubbles to form that it's not a wizard. The Federal Reserve isn't a wizard for one particular reason that it doesn't want anybody to know – and that is that the Fed doesn't lead the financial markets, it follows them.

People everywhere want to believe in the Fed's wizardry. But all this talk about how the Fed will be able to help the U.S. economy and hold up the markets by cutting rates now is as much hooey as the Wizard of Oz promising Dorothy, the Scarecrow, the Tin Man and the Cowardly Lion that he could give them what they wanted: a return to Kansas, a brain, a heart, and courage. Because when the Fed does do something, it always comes after the markets have already made their moves.

If you don't believe it, you should look at one chart from the most recent Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. It compares the movements in the Fed Funds rate with the movements of the 3-month U.S. Treasury Bill Yield. What does it reveal? That the Fed has followed the T-Bill yield up and down every step of the way since 2000. And the interesting question becomes this: Since the T-bill yield has dropped nearly two points since February, how soon will the Fed cut its rate to follow the market's lead this time?

[Editor's note: You can see this chart and read the Special Section it appears in by accessing the free report, The Unwonderful Wizardry of the Fed.]

We've got our own brains, heart and courage here at Elliott Wave International, and we've used them to explain over and over again that putting faith in the Fed to turn around the markets and the economy is blind faith indeed.

"This blind faith in the Fed's power to hold up the economy and stocks epitomizes the following definition of magic offered by Teller of the illusionist and comedy team of Penn and Teller: a 'theatrical linking of a cause with an effect that has no basis in physical reality, but that – in our hearts – ought to be.'" [September 2007, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast]

Because, you see, what makes the markets move has less to do with what the unwizardly Fed does and more with changes in the mass psychology of all the people investing in those markets. The Elliott Wave Principle describes how bullish and bearish trends in the financial markets reflect changes in social mood, from positive to negative and back again. To extend the metaphor: The Fed can't affect social mood anymore than the Wonderful Wizard of Oz could change the direction of the wind that brought his hot air balloon to the Land of Oz in the first place.

As our EWI analysts write, "With respect to the timing of the Federal Reserve Board rate cuts, we need to reiterate one key point. The market, not the Fed, sets rates." Being able to understand this information puts you one step closer to clicking your ruby red shoes together and whispering those magic words: "There's no place like home." Once you land back in Kansas, your eyes will open, and you will see that an unwarranted faith in the Fed was just a bad dream.

Susan C. Walker writes for Elliott Wave International, a market forecasting and technical analysis company. She has been an associate editor with Inc. magazine, a newspaper writer and editor, an investor relations executive and a speechwriter for the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Her columns also appear regularly on FoxNews.com.

*********************************

Happy Trading!!

ForexJourney

Why the Fed is such a Lousy Wizard of Oz

Another interesting articles from my friends over at Elliottwave.

********************************

Why the Fed is Such a Lousy Wizard of Oz
By Susan C. Walker, Elliott Wave InternationalSeptember 7, 2007

Central bankers who "follow the yellow brick road" end up in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, every Labor Day weekend for their annual symposium sponsored by – who else? – the Kansas City Fed. (Who can forget Judy Garland saying to her little dog, "Toto, I've got a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore," in the 1939 movie, The Wizard of Oz?)

The Jackson Hole Resort serves as the Federal Reserve's equivalent of the Emerald City, as Fed governors and presidents meet with central bankers and economists from around the world to discuss economic issues. This year, the symposium focused on housing and monetary policy. Usually, the Fed chairman kicks off the symposium and, this year, the new chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, did the honors. He closed his speech with these words:

"The interaction of housing, housing finance, and economic activity has for years been of central importance for understanding the behavior of the economy, and it will continue to be central to our thinking as we try to anticipate economic and financial developments."

Then came the other speeches. And it seems that some of the guests in Emerald City were waiting for their chance to pull back the curtain and prove that the Wonderful Wizard of Oz isn't such a wizard after all. Bloomberg reported that "Federal Reserve officials, wrestling with a housing recession that jeopardizes U.S. growth, got an earful from critics at a weekend retreat, arguing they should use regulation and interest rates to prevent asset-price bubbles."

Apparently, one academic paper presented at Jackson Hole graded the Fed an 'F' for the way it has handled the repercussions from the rise and fall of the housing market.

Truth be told, these folks are a little late to the table as critics of the Fed. We're glad they're joining us, but here's what they still haven't learned: It isn't because the Federal Reserve messes up by allowing credit, asset and stock bubbles to form that it's not a wizard. The Federal Reserve isn't a wizard for one particular reason that it doesn't want anybody to know – and that is that the Fed doesn't lead the financial markets, it follows them.

People everywhere want to believe in the Fed's wizardry. But all this talk about how the Fed will be able to help the U.S. economy and hold up the markets by cutting rates now is as much hooey as the Wizard of Oz promising Dorothy, the Scarecrow, the Tin Man and the Cowardly Lion that he could give them what they wanted: a return to Kansas, a brain, a heart, and courage. Because when the Fed does do something, it always comes after the markets have already made their moves.

If you don't believe it, you should look at one chart from the most recent Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. It compares the movements in the Fed Funds rate with the movements of the 3-month U.S. Treasury Bill Yield. What does it reveal? That the Fed has followed the T-Bill yield up and down every step of the way since 2000. And the interesting question becomes this: Since the T-bill yield has dropped nearly two points since February, how soon will the Fed cut its rate to follow the market's lead this time?

[Editor's note: You can see this chart and read the Special Section it appears in by accessing the free report, The Unwonderful Wizardry of the Fed.]

We've got our own brains, heart and courage here at Elliott Wave International, and we've used them to explain over and over again that putting faith in the Fed to turn around the markets and the economy is blind faith indeed.

"This blind faith in the Fed's power to hold up the economy and stocks epitomizes the following definition of magic offered by Teller of the illusionist and comedy team of Penn and Teller: a 'theatrical linking of a cause with an effect that has no basis in physical reality, but that – in our hearts – ought to be.'" [September 2007, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast]

Because, you see, what makes the markets move has less to do with what the unwizardly Fed does and more with changes in the mass psychology of all the people investing in those markets. The Elliott Wave Principle describes how bullish and bearish trends in the financial markets reflect changes in social mood, from positive to negative and back again. To extend the metaphor: The Fed can't affect social mood anymore than the Wonderful Wizard of Oz could change the direction of the wind that brought his hot air balloon to the Land of Oz in the first place.

As our EWI analysts write, "With respect to the timing of the Federal Reserve Board rate cuts, we need to reiterate one key point. The market, not the Fed, sets rates." Being able to understand this information puts you one step closer to clicking your ruby red shoes together and whispering those magic words: "There's no place like home." Once you land back in Kansas, your eyes will open, and you will see that an unwarranted faith in the Fed was just a bad dream.

Susan C. Walker writes for Elliott Wave International, a market forecasting and technical analysis company. She has been an associate editor with Inc. magazine, a newspaper writer and editor, an investor relations executive and a speechwriter for the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Her columns also appear regularly on FoxNews.com.

*********************************

Happy Trading!!

ForexJourney

Regret Will Kill Your Forex Account

OK, so you just pulled the trigger on a trade and every bone in your body told you not to. You violated the rules dictated in your trade plan and you watched a small profit immediately turn into a major loss.

Sound familiar? What do you do?

You get over it, that’s what you do! Regret over a bad trade will eat your account from the inside out. Regret is a more powerful emotion than most traders recognize. It is like the unwanted guest that keeps living off of your bank account until there is no more left. It takes most traders into a tailspin that they will never recover. It can lead to dangerous psychological results such as failure to pull the trigger over even worse, paralysis by analysis.

“Yeah, but…” (I will save the disempowerment of this statement for another day)

It’s not easy putting those emotions aside when your money is on the line. That’s why they called it trading, folks. In Forex someone is on the other side of the trade controlling their emotions and eventually controlling your account balance. If you want to find consistency you must never let regret live in your trading experience.

Here’s what I do to combat this debilitating emotion … I get over it! How do I do this? I simply perform a post mortem of my bad trades (I still have them every now and then) and keep a detailed journal. Over time I began to recognize my personal triggers and simply tweaked my trade plan to be a more proactive currency trader and avoid the situations that led to the bad trade in the first place, in my instance over-trading or being tired.

What trader do I model my approach after? The answer may surprise you!

The answer is Tiger Woods.

I play golf, so you could imagine I am a huge fan of Tiger Woods. There are a lot of similarities between golf and trading. Both venues offer a look at who we are as a person, raw and uncensored. Both live in the world of risk and reward.

I admire Tiger Woods skill as a golfer, but even more so his mental toughness. Next time you watch Tiger Wood hit a bad shot follow his reaction. His immediate reaction is to get upset, really upset. Then count 5 seconds. His expressions and demeanor will have returned to one of focus and concentration.

And the funny thing is that is doesn’t matter what kind of prize money is online. He takes the same approach to every golf shot, in every tournament.

Let’s translate that to trading. Do you give yourself 5 seconds to get over a bad trade? Do you take the same approach to every trade?

Stop living in the world of regret and only think about the possibilities of wining trades and you will find your experiences trading the Forex market one filled with achievement and success.

Happy Trading!!

ForexJourney

Regret Will Kill Your Forex Account

OK, so you just pulled the trigger on a trade and every bone in your body told you not to. You violated the rules dictated in your trade plan and you watched a small profit immediately turn into a major loss.

Sound familiar? What do you do?

You get over it, that’s what you do! Regret over a bad trade will eat your account from the inside out. Regret is a more powerful emotion than most traders recognize. It is like the unwanted guest that keeps living off of your bank account until there is no more left. It takes most traders into a tailspin that they will never recover. It can lead to dangerous psychological results such as failure to pull the trigger over even worse, paralysis by analysis.

“Yeah, but…” (I will save the disempowerment of this statement for another day)

It’s not easy putting those emotions aside when your money is on the line. That’s why they called it trading, folks. In Forex someone is on the other side of the trade controlling their emotions and eventually controlling your account balance. If you want to find consistency you must never let regret live in your trading experience.

Here’s what I do to combat this debilitating emotion … I get over it! How do I do this? I simply perform a post mortem of my bad trades (I still have them every now and then) and keep a detailed journal. Over time I began to recognize my personal triggers and simply tweaked my trade plan to be a more proactive currency trader and avoid the situations that led to the bad trade in the first place, in my instance over-trading or being tired.

What trader do I model my approach after? The answer may surprise you!

The answer is Tiger Woods.

I play golf, so you could imagine I am a huge fan of Tiger Woods. There are a lot of similarities between golf and trading. Both venues offer a look at who we are as a person, raw and uncensored. Both live in the world of risk and reward.

I admire Tiger Woods skill as a golfer, but even more so his mental toughness. Next time you watch Tiger Wood hit a bad shot follow his reaction. His immediate reaction is to get upset, really upset. Then count 5 seconds. His expressions and demeanor will have returned to one of focus and concentration.

And the funny thing is that is doesn’t matter what kind of prize money is online. He takes the same approach to every golf shot, in every tournament.

Let’s translate that to trading. Do you give yourself 5 seconds to get over a bad trade? Do you take the same approach to every trade?

Stop living in the world of regret and only think about the possibilities of wining trades and you will find your experiences trading the Forex market one filled with achievement and success.

Happy Trading!!

ForexJourney

Suddenly, It's a Bleak Midwinter for Housing and Lending

If you're wondering how the housing market collapse in the US will impact your favorite Central Banker (and interest rates), here's an interesting article to help support your fundamental Forex analysis:

***************************************

Suddenly, It's a Bleak Midwinter for Housing and Lending

By Susan C. Walker, Elliott Wave International

January 7, 2008

In the bleak midwinter, Frosty wind made moan,Earth stood hard as iron, Water like a stone…(From "A Christmas Carol" by Christina Rossetti)
Shawn Colvin sings a beautiful song based on this poem by Christina Rossetti, reminding us of the bleakness of midwinter. That is exactly where the housing market seems to be now – facing its very own bleak midwinter of falling prices, rising mortgage rates and growing inventories.

The latest report of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index shows that the price of houses fell 6.7% in October, year over year. That is the largest year-to-year decline drop since April 1991.

Think of it – if you had bought a home for $300,000 in October 2006, it is now worth about $280,000. And suppose you just got a new job and need to move? You are going to have trouble selling it at that price, too, thanks to so many foreclosed homes on the market. One realtor in Phoenix explained to a Wall Street Journal reporter that local residents are now competing with foreclosed homes selling for $50,000 to $100,000 less than other houses on the market. "The sellers now are having to reduce their prices by 20% to 30% to compete," she says. (Wall Street Journal, "Pace of Decline in Home Prices Sets a Record," 12/27/07)

At a meeting of the New York Society of Security Analysts on January 7, U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson said this about the U.S. economy: "We will likely have further indications of slower growth in the weeks and months ahead.''

Paulson and central bankers at the U.S. Federal Reserve recognize that they, too, face their own bleak financial midwinter. It's not just the mayhem brought on by the subprime mortgage debacle, the implosion of the housing market and the ensuing credit crunch; nor is it that the U.S. economy lurches toward a recession and hard times.

No, it is something bigger than that. Public opinion or social mood, as we call it here at Elliott Wave International, has shifted from positive to negative. When that happens, financial heroes find themselves falling from their pedestals onto frozen earth hard as iron.

Exhibit A - The headline of a recent article on Bloomberg: "Paulson Gets Diminishing Return with Bush, Like Powell, O'Neill" and the lead: "Henry Paulson escaped the Nixon White House with his reputation enhanced. He won't be so lucky this time around."

Exhibit B - The lead from a recent column by David Ignatius in the Washington Post:
"When airport rescue crews are worried that a damaged plane may have a crash landing, they sometimes spread the runway with foam to reduce the probability of fire on impact. That's what the Federal Reserve and other central banks are doing in pumping liquidity into severely damaged financial markets. Make no mistake: The central bankers' announcement Wednesday of a new coordinated effort to pump cash into the global financial system is a sign of their nervousness…."
Nervousness is in the air now. Investors are anxious about the markets; everyone is worried about the housing market.

Our Elliott Wave Financial Forecast December issue explains how housing starts (and stops) are intimately tied to recessions: "One key indicator of success in pre-dating economic downturns is housing starts, which are approaching the 1-million-a-month level that has preceded all recessions of the last 40 years."

And the Fed is nervous, too. So much so that it announced a credit giveaway with four other major central banks (the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank) in mid-December to try to bolster the financial system and the banks that keep it humming. The Fed reports that banks have been stepping up to its auction window each week to purchase $20 billion. Unfortunately for the banks, most of this "liquidity" isn't that liquid. It has to be paid back within 30 days, with interest of about 4.65%.

Editor's note: Elliott Wave International has agreed to make available to our readers a 2-1/2-page excerpt from Bob Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist in which he describes exactly how the Fed's latest effort to shore up banks' balance sheets has become "High Noon for the Fed's Credibility." Click here to read the Theorist excerpt.

Just how bleak is the future for central bankers if this recently implemented plan doesn't work? Bob Prechter explains in his just-published Theorist:

"Nevertheless, this is probably the single most important central-bank pronouncement yet. But it is not significant for the reasons people think. By far most people take such pronouncements at face value, presume that what the authorities promise will happen and reason from there. But the tremendous significance of this seismic engagement of the monetary jawbone is that if this announcement fails to restore confidence, central bankers' credibility will evaporate."

"At least that's the way historians will play it. But of course, the true causality, as elucidated by socionomics, is that an evaporation of confidence will make the central bankers' plans fail. The outcome is predicated on psychology."

The "socionomics" Prechter refers to is a new social science he has introduced that studies how humans behave in groups within contexts of uncertainty – where fluctuations in social mood motivate social actions. It explains that rather than an event happening that affects social mood (for example, falling home prices make people feel bad), what really happens is that social mood changes first from positive to negative and then lousy things happen (for example, unhappy people make home prices fall). If you can adopt this point of view, then you can see that, in poetic terms, we are fast approaching a bleak midwinter for the economy and the financial markets.

Susan C. Walker writes for Elliott Wave International, a market forecasting and technical analysis company. She has been an associate editor with Inc. magazine, a newspaper writer and editor, an investor relations executive and a speechwriter for the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Her columns also appear regularly on FoxNews.com.

***************************************

Happy Trading!!

ForexJourney.com

Suddenly, It's a Bleak Midwinter for Housing and Lending

If you're wondering how the housing market collapse in the US will impact your favorite Central Banker (and interest rates), here's an interesting article to help support your fundamental Forex analysis:

***************************************

Suddenly, It's a Bleak Midwinter for Housing and Lending

By Susan C. Walker, Elliott Wave International

January 7, 2008

In the bleak midwinter, Frosty wind made moan,Earth stood hard as iron, Water like a stone…(From "A Christmas Carol" by Christina Rossetti)
Shawn Colvin sings a beautiful song based on this poem by Christina Rossetti, reminding us of the bleakness of midwinter. That is exactly where the housing market seems to be now – facing its very own bleak midwinter of falling prices, rising mortgage rates and growing inventories.

The latest report of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index shows that the price of houses fell 6.7% in October, year over year. That is the largest year-to-year decline drop since April 1991.

Think of it – if you had bought a home for $300,000 in October 2006, it is now worth about $280,000. And suppose you just got a new job and need to move? You are going to have trouble selling it at that price, too, thanks to so many foreclosed homes on the market. One realtor in Phoenix explained to a Wall Street Journal reporter that local residents are now competing with foreclosed homes selling for $50,000 to $100,000 less than other houses on the market. "The sellers now are having to reduce their prices by 20% to 30% to compete," she says. (Wall Street Journal, "Pace of Decline in Home Prices Sets a Record," 12/27/07)

At a meeting of the New York Society of Security Analysts on January 7, U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson said this about the U.S. economy: "We will likely have further indications of slower growth in the weeks and months ahead.''

Paulson and central bankers at the U.S. Federal Reserve recognize that they, too, face their own bleak financial midwinter. It's not just the mayhem brought on by the subprime mortgage debacle, the implosion of the housing market and the ensuing credit crunch; nor is it that the U.S. economy lurches toward a recession and hard times.

No, it is something bigger than that. Public opinion or social mood, as we call it here at Elliott Wave International, has shifted from positive to negative. When that happens, financial heroes find themselves falling from their pedestals onto frozen earth hard as iron.

Exhibit A - The headline of a recent article on Bloomberg: "Paulson Gets Diminishing Return with Bush, Like Powell, O'Neill" and the lead: "Henry Paulson escaped the Nixon White House with his reputation enhanced. He won't be so lucky this time around."

Exhibit B - The lead from a recent column by David Ignatius in the Washington Post:
"When airport rescue crews are worried that a damaged plane may have a crash landing, they sometimes spread the runway with foam to reduce the probability of fire on impact. That's what the Federal Reserve and other central banks are doing in pumping liquidity into severely damaged financial markets. Make no mistake: The central bankers' announcement Wednesday of a new coordinated effort to pump cash into the global financial system is a sign of their nervousness…."
Nervousness is in the air now. Investors are anxious about the markets; everyone is worried about the housing market.

Our Elliott Wave Financial Forecast December issue explains how housing starts (and stops) are intimately tied to recessions: "One key indicator of success in pre-dating economic downturns is housing starts, which are approaching the 1-million-a-month level that has preceded all recessions of the last 40 years."

And the Fed is nervous, too. So much so that it announced a credit giveaway with four other major central banks (the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank) in mid-December to try to bolster the financial system and the banks that keep it humming. The Fed reports that banks have been stepping up to its auction window each week to purchase $20 billion. Unfortunately for the banks, most of this "liquidity" isn't that liquid. It has to be paid back within 30 days, with interest of about 4.65%.

Editor's note: Elliott Wave International has agreed to make available to our readers a 2-1/2-page excerpt from Bob Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist in which he describes exactly how the Fed's latest effort to shore up banks' balance sheets has become "High Noon for the Fed's Credibility." Click here to read the Theorist excerpt.

Just how bleak is the future for central bankers if this recently implemented plan doesn't work? Bob Prechter explains in his just-published Theorist:

"Nevertheless, this is probably the single most important central-bank pronouncement yet. But it is not significant for the reasons people think. By far most people take such pronouncements at face value, presume that what the authorities promise will happen and reason from there. But the tremendous significance of this seismic engagement of the monetary jawbone is that if this announcement fails to restore confidence, central bankers' credibility will evaporate."

"At least that's the way historians will play it. But of course, the true causality, as elucidated by socionomics, is that an evaporation of confidence will make the central bankers' plans fail. The outcome is predicated on psychology."

The "socionomics" Prechter refers to is a new social science he has introduced that studies how humans behave in groups within contexts of uncertainty – where fluctuations in social mood motivate social actions. It explains that rather than an event happening that affects social mood (for example, falling home prices make people feel bad), what really happens is that social mood changes first from positive to negative and then lousy things happen (for example, unhappy people make home prices fall). If you can adopt this point of view, then you can see that, in poetic terms, we are fast approaching a bleak midwinter for the economy and the financial markets.

Susan C. Walker writes for Elliott Wave International, a market forecasting and technical analysis company. She has been an associate editor with Inc. magazine, a newspaper writer and editor, an investor relations executive and a speechwriter for the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Her columns also appear regularly on FoxNews.com.

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Happy Trading!!

ForexJourney.com

A Forex Trader’s Lifestyle

Whether you are a novice Forex trader or a seasoned veteran one aspect you must always take into account is to ensure your lifestyle supports successful trading. Forex trading is no different from any other endeavor in life. Whether you are employee, employer or self-employed you must take the time and effort to ensure your environment is conducive to your success.

Take a look at your surroundings and make sure your lifestyle supports you being a successful Forex trader. Take in all the factors of success (how YOU define success) evaluate your factors to make sure your trading is:

Specific – Do you have specific trading goals and objectives? Do you have a trading plan? Ask yourself is your plan to general?

Measurable – Do you have systems in place to objectively measure your performance? If you don’t know your numbers then do you really have a trading business?

Has a Timeline – Do you have a timeline for which you are measuring your goals and objectives against?

Controllable – There are many aspects in Forex trading you can’t control, ensure that the areas your can control are firmly defined and managed with discipline.

Programmed Into Your Lifestyle – Are your Forex trading activities programmed and congruent with your lifestyle? Balance is important so make sure this passes the test!

Taken in Small Steps - This business is a marathon and not a sprint. Start off with small steps and build. The best practice trading principals do not change with account size.

Accountable – Forex trading (or any trading for that matter) can be such an isolated activity. Find ways to have others participate and hold you accountable for your goals. Make it real and measurable!

True Forex success is built through smart work and dedication. By establishing the trading lifestyle that best supports your personality will guarantee prolonged success. Remember, it is your Forex Journey. Be sure you enjoy the ride!

Happy Trading!!

A Forex Trader’s Lifestyle

Whether you are a novice Forex trader or a seasoned veteran one aspect you must always take into account is to ensure your lifestyle supports successful trading. Forex trading is no different from any other endeavor in life. Whether you are employee, employer or self-employed you must take the time and effort to ensure your environment is conducive to your success.

Take a look at your surroundings and make sure your lifestyle supports you being a successful Forex trader. Take in all the factors of success (how YOU define success) evaluate your factors to make sure your trading is:

Specific – Do you have specific trading goals and objectives? Do you have a trading plan? Ask yourself is your plan to general?

Measurable – Do you have systems in place to objectively measure your performance? If you don’t know your numbers then do you really have a trading business?

Has a Timeline – Do you have a timeline for which you are measuring your goals and objectives against?

Controllable – There are many aspects in Forex trading you can’t control, ensure that the areas your can control are firmly defined and managed with discipline.

Programmed Into Your Lifestyle – Are your Forex trading activities programmed and congruent with your lifestyle? Balance is important so make sure this passes the test!

Taken in Small Steps - This business is a marathon and not a sprint. Start off with small steps and build. The best practice trading principals do not change with account size.

Accountable – Forex trading (or any trading for that matter) can be such an isolated activity. Find ways to have others participate and hold you accountable for your goals. Make it real and measurable!

True Forex success is built through smart work and dedication. By establishing the trading lifestyle that best supports your personality will guarantee prolonged success. Remember, it is your Forex Journey. Be sure you enjoy the ride!

Happy Trading!!

The ONLY Difference Between Professional Traders and Amateurs Is ...

He's a blog posting from one of my friends on mySpace, Barry. To close the year I couldn't resist posting this for thought!

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Here's a revelation that changed my trading forever:

"Successful trading is imply a business of not making mistakes."

That has become such a cornerstone to my trading that I actually framed that saying and put it on my wall over my trading flat screens.

One of the most productive things you can do to become a profitable trader is to make a list of your most common mistakes.

Awareness is the first step.

Then watch your behavior and don't allow yourself to make those mistakes any more.
Each of us has her or his own challenges, so you must make your own list.

But to get you started, I'll expose my sins and share with you what have been my most common mistakes over the years. This is the official list of my own 7 most common mistakes. Perhaps you'll find it helpful:

1. Missing trades. When my setup occurs I need to make sure I'm aware of it and haven't been distracted by chat rooms, email, phone calls or lulled into boredom by a consolidating market.
I also need to make sure I don't hesitate to pull the trigger when I do see my setups.

2. Trading reversals that are not in extended trends and during which the internal market energy has not reversed.

3. Trading only 1 time frame without the confirmation of a longer term chart.

4. Trading while tired.

5. Over trading. Never try to make up for losses or missed trades. Never trade out of boredom. Never take any trade that doesn't match my rules 100%.

6. Not taking profits on my first exit soon enough. This is critical to adjust my cost position in the trade and therefore keep losses small.

7. Exiting my entire position too soon. I must keep at least part of my position alive until the energy of the trade has shifted so that I can ride the big moves.

Well, that's my confession.

Now you know my sins, but I imagine they're not so different than yours.

Have you committed these trading sins ... or your own unique ones?

The only solution is to REPENT!

That doesn't simply mean to say you're sorry.

It means to change your behavior.

Many people treat trading as:
an intellectual exercise.
a mathematical challenge.
or a research project.

Actually it's more about managing your behavior than anything else ... of course that's often the most difficult thing of all!

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I couldn't have said it better!

Barry can be found at: http://www.myspace.com/topdogtrading

Happy New Year !!

Forex Journey