Dollar Anticipates Release of U.S. Core CPI

The U.S. Dollar anticipates the release of U.S. Core CPI at 12:30 GMT. The reason this publication is so important is due to it being a leading measure of U.S. economic growth and inflation. A positive figure is likely to help the USD gain strength throughout today's trading. The USD will also be affected by its yesterday's bearishness, as there may be a slight correction in the greenback. Traders should open their USD positions now in order to make maximum profits from end-of-week trading.



USD - USD Slides on Poor Economic Data

During yesterday's trading, the Dollar dropped against all the major currencies. The Dollar dropped as much as 100 pips at one point against the EUR on Thursday, and saw bearish trends against the Pound and the Yen as well.

The Dollar weakened yesterday as a result of series of negative economic data releases. The U.S Retails Sales unexpectedly dropped by 0.1% in July, failing to reach expectations to rise by 1.8%. The U.S Core Retails Sales dropped by 0.6% in July too. The difference between the two reports is that the core report measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles, due to the high volatility of automobile sales. The fact that both indices showed negative figures proves that American consumers are still cautious regarding their expenses, lacking the confidence that the worst of the recession is behind us

The other important release that helped push down the Dollar on Thursday was the weekly Unemployment Claims report which showed that 558,000 individuals filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. Both the negative Retails Sales data and the poor employment figures showed that the U.S economy is yet to pull out of recession, and thus the Dollar weakened as the trading day progressed.

Looking ahead to today, the leading data seems to be the Consumer Price Indices (CPI). The CPI measures the change in price of goods and services purchased by consumers, and thus act as a leading inflation gauge. Traders are advised to focus their attention on the Core CPI report, which excludes food and energy prices, as it tends to deliver a more reliable figure. Current forecasts suggest that prices have stayed quite stable during July. It appears that if the actual result will be similar or slightly better, it may correct some of yesterday's losses for the Dollar. However, in case of a worse-than-expected result, the Dollar is likely to continue tumbling.

EUR - EUR Soars on Positive GDP Figures

The EUR saw a volatile trading session yesterday. The EUR rose significantly higher against the Dollar, as the EUR/USD reached the 1.4300 level. However, the EUR saw mixed results against both the Yen and the Pound.

It appears that the EUR's appreciation came as a result of the better-than-expected economic data. The German Preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) unexpectedly rose by 0.3% in the 2nd quarter. The GDP report measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. The positive result generated speculations that the German economy is recovering sooner then expected, as many analysts wrongly forecast that the German economy will only pull out of recession by the middle of 2010.

Later on in Thursday's trading day, the European Flash GDP was released, showing that the Euro-Zone's GDP dropped by 0.1% during the 2nd quarter, beating expectations for a 0.5% slide. The better-than-expected figures created the sensation that the Euro-Zone economy is following the U.S optimism which we have seen in the past 2 months that the recession will end sooner than expected. As a result, this has strengthened the EUR.

As for today, a batch of data is expected from the European economies. The French Preliminary Non-Farm Payrolls will be released, and analysts forecast that 0.7% people have lost their jobs during the previous quarter in France. The European Consumer Prices Indices are also expected today, and are predicted to deliver mixed results. It currently seems that if the actual results will be similar to forecasts, the EUR may drop slightly due to the overall negative figures.

JPY - Yen Rises on Asian Equity Rally

The JPY started yesterday's trading with bullish trends against all the major currencies. The Yen continued to rise against the Dollar, yet later on lost gains against the EUR and the Pound. The Yen soared against the major pairs as a rally in Asian stocks spurred demand for higher-yielding assets. The Bank of Japan stated yesterday that Japan's economic conditions have stopped worsening, and are likely to turn upward over time. This created positive sentiment which was reflected in Asian stock markets, and was followed by a strengthening Yen.

Yesterday, the Tertiary Industry Activity report showed that the total value of services purchased by business rose by 0.1% in June. This is another indication that Japanese consumers feel safer to enlarge their expenses, which means that the general sentiment is that the economy is doing better. Looking ahead to today, no significant data is expected from the Japanese economy. Traders should mainly focus on the major data releases from the U.S economy, as this is likely set the tone for today's trading.

Crude Oil - Crude Oil Eyes $73 a Barrel

Crude Oil continued to rise yesterday, marking the second consecutive day of rising prices. A barrel of Crude Oil rose to over $72 during yesterday's trading session, and now eyes $73 a barrel. Crude was helped by a weak USD Dollar, as the commodity is valued in Dollars, and thus a drop of the Dollar against the major currencies is usually followed by a rise in commodities prices, especially Oil.

The rise in Crude Oil and the weak USD was largely due U.S equities rallying to a 10-month high, and the German and French economies delivering better than expected data. What seems to be an early recovery for the leading western economies has sparked optimism for a rebound in fuel demand. It currently seems that every positive economic figure from the U.S or the Euro-Zone may spark an appreciation in Oil prices, as expectations for higher fuel demand are constantly growing.

Article Source - Dollar Anticipates Release of U.S. Core CPI

Australia Readies to Raise Interest Rates, Says Central Bank Chief (Euro Open)

Asia session trading saw Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens use sharper rhetoric in discussing the certainty of lifting the overnight cash rate from “emergency” levels. This comes just hours before CPI data from half-way around the world, is expected to point toward deflation. Unexpected growth in the Euro-Zone, however, may derail this estimate and may cause inflation to actually publish in positive territory.

Key Overnight Developments

• RBA’s Stevens Conjures ‘Emergency’ Rate Increase Speculation
• New Zealand Retail Sales Unexpectedly Gain in June
• Some Bank of Japan Members Wanted to Extend Program

Critical Levels



Pound traders eased into the Asian session after a volatile U.S. session sent Sterling bouncing between pivot support and resistance against the Dollar. Euro price action, at the time of this publication, was set to end its five day winning streak against the greenback.

Asia Session Highlights



New Zealand Retail Sales rose 0.1% in June, much stronger than the anticipated 0.3% contractionary figure. Despite a continued growth, spending gains still performed weaker than in the previous month. The previous period may have been a simple green shoot as the figure happened to be the strongest of such in 12 months. Spending in the three months ending June, however, saw the first gain in retail sales in seven quarters. Such activity occurred in a period in which wages grew by the slowest pace in 10 years, adding to speculation that much of this spree has been led by cash handouts implemented by the New Zealand government. Additionally, it does seem odd that a turnaround of this magnitude could occur at such a rapid pace; the previous quarter's sales figure contracted 2.7%. As the market mechanism kicks in again and the government's cash handouts are phased from the metric, labor market weakness will regain the reigns. Keep in mind that the country's Finance Minister, Bill English, stated two weeks ago that the administration expects the unemployment rate to continue rising for quite some time.

Minutes of the July 14-15 meeting of the Bank of Japan revealed that they will extend purchases of corporate debt and asset-backed paper by there additional months, until December 31. Despite economic conditions which have "stopped worsening" there are still some key companies that are lacking the credit to stay afloat. "Another extension might become necessary if the bank's judgment was that the situation had not improved sufficiently," some board members added." An extension of such alternative methods of monetary easing would be welcomed in the country which has, in June, seen retail sales plummet significantly more than forecast and the unemployment rate rise more than anticipated.

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said that the bank will raise it's "emergency" level overnight cash rate as the economy recovers from recession. At his half-yearly testimony given to parliament's finance committee, the 51-year old head of the RBA said "there will come a time when the exceptional monetary stimulus in place at present will no longer be needed." The hawkishly sharper rhetoric is a stark change from that which was given in the minute of their meeting five weeks ago. Perhaps the RBA is playing a game of chicken - at their latest meeting they revised their 2009 growth estimate up to 0.5% from a contraction of -1.0%. But it seems as though the market didn't buy it.

Euro Session: What to Expect



Euro-Zone Consumer Prices in July are expected to have shrunk for the first time since the start of the year on a monthly basis. Looking at the figure on a year-over-year basis, prices have been trending downward as last summer’s oil-based inflation continues to be phased out of the yearly number. But this next piece of data might be a bit better than the Bloomberg consensus would have one believe. Just yesterday it was announced that German and French GDP had unexpectedly grown in the second quarter of the year. On a broader-spectrum, the Euro-Zone economy contracted at a slower pace than estimates had originally figured. Much of this may have been due to labor conditions which had improved. Spain, the country in the area with the largest amount of job losses in the last year, had to revise their joblessness rate down. As such, the fact that there are additional laborers employed may raise inflationary pressures as the dwindling number of free workers declines. Although this may seem logical in theory, wages are sticky and take some time to adjust to an equilibrium level of supply and demand. Furthermore, if there was indeed a greater level of free cash floating in the pockets of ordinary citizens, it would have made sense for consumer spending to have risen. Unfortunately, June saw retail sales decline 0.2% when forecasts calls for a rise of 0.3% in the figure. The two contradictory indicators lead to some confusion. Nonetheless, unexpected growth will likely weigh in some for or another.

Written by Luis Gil, DailyFX Research
Article Source - Australia Readies to Raise Interest Rates, Says Central Bank Chief (Euro Open)

USD Setback Could Change Course Following Today's Retail Sales

After suffering a mild setback following the release of yesterday's Federal Funds Rate policy statement, the USD now seems poised for a come-back. At the opening of the US market today at 12:30 GMT, traders will catch a glimpse of US retail sales and unemployment claims which are both expected to show a continuation of growth in the United States helping the USD regain some of yesterday's losses.



USD - Dollar Down on All Fronts Except JPY Following Fed Statement

The U.S. Dollar trimmed earlier losses against major counterparts on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve left Interest Rates unchanged, near zero percent. The Dollar pared earlier losses versus the EUR in the first 20 minutes after the Fed's statement on optimism that the end of the purchase program would reduce the risk of inflation, which erodes the purchasing power of the greenback. However, the USD resumed its decline afterwards as stocks gained.

Against the Japanese yen the U.S. Dollar kept broad gains after the Federal Reserve painted a less gloomy outlook for the U.S. economy, an assessment that led investors to return to commodity-linked currencies in droves. The Federal Reserve has also said it would slow the pace at which it buys Treasuries by extending the duration, but not the size, of its $300 billion program to buy long-term government securities.

Analysts have said that while sentiment toward riskier assets has improved, there was a general degree of caution on the Fed's move to extend the time-frame of asset purchases as it indicated that the economy was still vulnerable. Today, forex traders will catch a glimpse into US Retail Sales and the weekly unemployment claims report. If sales continue to grow in the US, as is forecast, the USD may be capable of going bullish later in the day.

EUR - The Sterling Remains under Downward Pressure

The European currency gained for a 3rd consecutive day against the U.S Dollar before the European Union's statistics office releases its 2nd quarter Gross Domestic Product numbers in Luxembourg. GDP in the 16-nation Euro-Zone shrank 0.5% after a 2.5% contraction in the 1st quarter, according to economist predictions.

The EUR also advanced against 13 of the 16 major currencies before the release of a U.S. report that may show retail sales gaining for a third straight month, prompting investors to seek higher-yielding assets.

The British currency had weakened yesterday ahead of the release of the Bank of England's (BOE) quarterly inflation report. The Pound fell against the Dollar after the BOE said it may miss its inflation target amid a slow recovery. Fear of undershooting the target means the central bank is more likely to hold off on increasing rates, analysts have said.

Britain's currency also dropped versus the Yen after the central bank's governor said it was more likely that inflation will slow below 1% this year and unemployment may reach a 14-year high.

JPY - Yen Falls on Low Safe-Haven Demand

The Yen fell for a 2nd consecutive day against the EUR after the Federal Reserve said economic activity is leveling out, sapping demand for Japan's currency as a refuge. The Yen depreciated to as low as 96.23 from 95.51 vs. the US Dollar at the close of Tokyo stock trading. A weaker domestic currency increases the value of overseas sales at Japanese companies when repatriated.

The JPY also weakened against all 16 major currencies as Asian stocks extended a U.S. equity rally on signs the global slump is abating, encouraging investors to buy higher-yielding securities. For today, most attention will be paid to the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) following the evening release of its retail sales reports. With a recently bullish NZD, this report has the potential of creating a reversal to this trend if it comes out worse than forecast.

Crude Oil - Oil Prices Rebound above $70 a Barrel

Crude Oil ended higher Wednesday as a rally on Wall Street and sudden Dollar weakness overshadowed government data showing a bigger-than-expected rise in crude supplies. While the fundamental picture is bearish, Crude is being supported by a weaker U.S Dollar and stronger equity markets. Traders appeared to shrug off government data showing a build-up in crude supplies. Oil's strength came despite a report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showing U.S. Crude Oil Inventories rose 2.5 million barrels in the week to August 7, well over analysts' expectations.

Oil trimmed gains after the U.S. Federal Reserve in its policy statement said the U.S. economy is leveling out and that it was extending purchases of long-term U.S. Treasury debt to the end of October. Crude also rose as the International Energy Agency (IEA) boosted its oil-demand outlook for this year and next. In its report yesterday, the IEA said that the world will need 85.25 million barrels of oil a day next year, 70,000 barrels more than previously estimated.

Article Source - USD Setback Could Change Course Following Today's Retail Sales

Euro-Zone Economic Contraction Set to Ease (Euro Open)

The growth rate of the Euro-Zone economy will be highly watched tomorrow and is likely to shake markets if the published number deviates from expectations. Contractionary conditions might not actually be as bad as originally thought after Spain, the country with the worst jobless rate, had to revise its unemployment rate down.

Key Overnight Developments

• Australian Inflation Expectations Highest Since October
• Moody’s Holds ‘Negative’ Outlook on N.Z. Banks
• Wages in Australia Grow at 4-Year High

Critical Levels



Sterling price action against the Dollar consolidated during Asian trading after having touched both our identified support and resistance levels. The Euro played it similarly and even broke through pivot support for a brief moment before continuing up toward our ceiling at 1.4161, coming only 29 pips shy.

Asia Session Highlights



A Moody's research article continued to hold a "negative" outlook for New Zealand’s banking system. "Impairment levels have risen noticeably so far in fiscal 2009...thereby reducing net profit growth and internal capital generation capabilities" said Marina Ip, assistant vice president at Moody's Australia. The unwanted news comes just four weeks after Fitch, another major ratings agency, slashed New Zealand's sovereign debt-rating outlook to "negative." In that report, the agency cited the high level of dependence that the country has on short-term financing from abroad as reason for the caution. The credit outlook for both the public and private sectors in New Zealand remains weak. Yields are likely to remain high. On Monday, the country's 10-year government bond yield rose to the highest level since the end of June. Such tight-money conditions might make it tough for the country to grow organically.

Australians expect the highest level of inflation since October, after gasoline rose to $1.50 per liter, or $6.40 per gallon and average weekly wages grew at the greatest pace since August 2005. Although it is true that an upward trend in the rate of wage growth may lead to a general rise in consumer prices, the anticipated 3.5% inflation rate might not necessarily become a realized threat. The 6.1% growth in pay through May substantially overshot forecasts, which called for figure to rise by only 5.3%. On one hand, this startling trend may induce wage-led inflation. On the other, it may not. The data does not include the wages of part-time workers. Keep in mind that since last summer, the number of full-time positions that were lost was replaced by almost the same amount of part-time ones created. This means that since the data only represents those who are working complete shifts it does not get weighed down by the downward wage pressure generally thrust upon part-timers. But the public does have some reason to believe the price of living will jump ahead. At its latest meeting, the RBA revised its growth forecast for 2009 significantly upward. The bank actually believes that their economy will expand by 0.5% - quite a stark difference from the 1.0% contraction which they had originally anticipated. It will be a tough call to predict. But in the mean time wages of all workers might continue to slow in gains, easing the pressure on overall inflation.

Euro Session: What to Expect



The economies of Germany, France and, more importantly, the Euro-Zone are expected to have continued shrinking during the second quarter of 2009. Contraction rates for each area are, however, clearly expected to fair better than the period prior. Such optimism may be coming on the back of a lagged monetary transmission system, which saw the European Central Bank slash it’s overnight policy rate by 2.75 percentage points in the six months leading up to March and another half-point in May. The ECB also took unprecedented action last month when it injected 442.2 billion Euros into the zone’s banking system. These stimulative efforts, aimed at kickstarting the economy or at least at easing the pain, may have done just that – at least in the final part of the period. June saw the Euro-Zone unemployment rate actually come in 0.3 percentage points under expectations to 9.4% and the May figure revised down 0.2 percentage points to 9.2%. Much of this June error came after Spain, the Euro-Zone country with the largest amount of job losses in the last year, revised their rate of unemployment downward. Some of this liquidity easing must be trickling down if even the country with the weakest labor market finds itself doing better than initially expected. While the joblessness situation does seem to be softening, the Euro-Zone economy probably continued to decline – but only at a slower pace than many may be expecting, it may seem.

Switzerland’s June Producer and Import Prices are expected top have risen by the largest monthly amount since July 2008. With the trade-weighted Franc exchange rate in May falling by the largest percentage amount since January, it may come to be that the country’s import prices will be reflected by such deterioration in the Swiss purchasing power abroad. On the contrary, trade data for June showed that the nominal value of imports rose by 2.5% while the real value rose even more, by 3.8%. In any case where the real value of a price variable exceeds that of the nominal one it is because the cost declined.

Written by Luis Gil, DailyFX Research
Article Source - Euro-Zone Economic Contraction Set to Ease (Euro Open)

JPY This Week's Lead Investment; US Federal Funds Rate Today!

During yesterday's trading, the Yen continued to be the dominant currency in the forex market. Whilst most of the major currencies tended to fluctuate without marking a sustained trend, the JPY strengthened on all fronts, and currently looks to be this week's top investment. During today's trading, the most fascinating data will come at 18:15 GMT, as the Federal Funds Rate for August will be announced. The main question is whether the Fed will hike rates in light of recent positive economic data. Such a turn of events could create mayhem in the market, and traders are advised to be prepared.



USD - USD Sees Mixed Trading Ahead of FOMC Statement

The Dollar experienced a mixed trading day Tuesday ahead of today's FOMC meeting, continuing its rally against its commodity based counterparts while slipping slightly against the EUR and dropping sharply against the Yen. The Dollar traded at 95.80 Yen early this morning, from 95.99 yesterday, after falling 1.2%. The U.S. currency was at $1.4161 per EUR from $1.4149 yesterday.

The highly anticipated FOMC meeting statement is due to be released today at 18:15 GMT. Breaking with its trend throughout the recession, the Dollar unexpectedly rose Friday following a surprisingly strong U.S employment data release. This was seen as a signal that the recession is coming to an end and the Dollar might start benefiting from positive U.S data. This statement will be the first test of whether this trend will persist and the Dollar's strength can be maintained on positive economic data.

While no interest rate changes are expected, any clues as to the progress or end of the quantitative easing program will likely cause great market volatility. The statement is expected to provide an assessment of the current economic condition in the world's largest economy and more importantly provide an economic outlook, therefore, likely setting short-term direction for the USD.

EUR - EUR Continues its Decline against the Yen

The EUR continues to decline versus the Yen pushing its loss to 1.9%. The decline was exacerbated after consumer prices in Germany posted their first annual decline in more than 22 years in July, boosting speculations the European Central Bank (ECB) will keep interest rates at a record low. The EUR was at $1.4154 from $1.4142 late Monday and was at 135.74 yen, down from 137.32.

The Pound continues its decline against the Dollar, reaching a low of $1.6476. Pushing down on the Pound was a worse then expected trade balance as well as falling stock markets, prompted by declines in financial stocks. With the financial sector being the largest sector in the British economy, equity market movements tend to have major affects on the GBP's value. Furthermore, investors are staying cautious ahead of today's BOE inflation statement.

A heavy news day is expected today from the U.K which will likely set the direction for the Pound for the rest of the week with the Claimant Count Change to be released at 8:30 GMT along with the Average Earnings Index and the BOE Inflation statement. at 9:30 GMT. These will provide an assessment of the current economic conditions in the U.K as well as provide an outlook on the prospects of recovery. The Euro-Zone Industrial Production report is also due to be released at 9:00 GMT, worse than expected results will likely put further downward pressure on the EUR.

JPY - The JPY Gains against all Major Currencies

The JPY traded at its highest level in a week against the EUR yesterday on concern the improvement in financial companies' earnings will stall. The Yen traded at 135.82 per EUR early today, following a 1.1% gain yesterday. Japan's currency traded at 95.96 per USD and 158.17 against the Pound, both up from yesterday's figures.

Disappointing Chinese economic data and dropping stock prices on global exchanges soured risk appetite. Expectations that the Japanese economy will pull out of the recession ahead of the U.S have also helped push up the JPY against the greenback as investors turned to Japanese assets.

With no major news releases from Japan today, the Yen's short term direction will likely be set by the news coming from the U.S and Europe, mainly the FOMC statement minutes.

Crude Oil - Crude Falls below $70 a Barrel

Light Sweet Crude for September delivery settled down $1.15, or 1.6%, at $69.45 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) yesterday as U.S. equities dropped ahead of a government report forecasting an increase in crude supplies in the biggest energy consuming nation. This was the lowest settlement since July 31. It was the fourth straight daily decline and the first time oil settled below $70 this month.

While global economic recovery is impending, demand is still contracting sharply, collapsing faster than anyone expected. Traders should follow today's release of U.S Crude Oil inventories as any bearish number could prompt a further decline in prices.

Article Source - JPY This Week's Lead Investment; US Federal Funds Rate Today!

Is It Bottom for EUR/USD for this week ?

12:06 AM (GMT+7)


Dollar light agains Euro today, range move very tight. It can't break previous day low and now seems like it will move up, try to 1.4235 ( this is my opinion). EMA 20 already through EMA 66 but EMA 5 shows price too week to move down, and getting curved up, nearest support should yesterday low at 1.4104, break it would bring EUR/USD deeper to 1.3973. Meanwhile, upper movement will meet barrier at 1.4209 - 1.4235 and strong resistant should at 1.4273 and resistant that hold bullih trend on TF 4 Hour should be 1.4448.




On Time Frame 1 H, RSI already moved above 50, Parabolic SAR already make a sign for begining bullish trend, EMA 5(blue)almost cross up EMA 20 (green) and I don't want to wait because smaller TF already comfirm.

I take one BUY at 1.4166, I put SL at 1.4102 and I let it with open target, if next movement give me more signal to hold and comfirm EUR/USD already bottomed this week I might aim at 1.4326 as my first target.

But this just my plan, market is dynamic and it might change my mind latter

Rising Unemployment Affects Canada’s Dollar Performance

The U.S. dollar pared most of this week’s losses versus its Canadian counterpart as a report today indicated that the number of job cuts in Canada was higher than what economists predicted.
After trading at a 10-month high in the beginning of the week, the Canadian dollar reverted its winning streak and declined even further today as a government report indicated that employment figures shrank much beyond economists forecasts, making the loonie to be traded at a one-week low after the report was published. Commodities and stocks decline influenced by weaker corporate and banking earnings pushed the Canadian currency down this week, as traders fled riskier assets to seek safety in more conservative investments like bonds and currencies like the Japanese yen and the U.S. dollar.
The Canadian dollar was overpriced and today’s job data was the perfect excuse for traders to profit and make the loonie to return to more realistic levels, according to currency specialists. This week, even the Bank of Canada showed concerns regarding the loonie’s rapid rise, and today’s movement could be even be considered adequate for the Canadian economy.
USD/CAD declined sharply after the employment report being traded at 1.0836, a significant rise from yesterday’s rate of 1.0735.
If you want to comment on the Canadian dollar’s recent action or have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to reply below.

American Incomes Head Down, Threatening Recovery in Spending

August 05 Household income in the U.S. is weakening as the influence of the government’s stimulus plan wanes, prompting economists, Federal Reserve officials and a Nobel laureate to warn that consumer spending may struggle.“Consumers have started to change their behavior and they are going to save more,” said Richard Berner, co-head of global economics at Morgan Stanley in New York and a former researcher at the Fed. “You have pressure on wages, you have employment still declining.”Wages and salaries, which drive recoveries in spending, fell 4.7 percent in the 12 months through June, the biggest drop since records began in 1960, according to Commerce Department figures released yesterday. The Obama administration’s tax cuts, extended jobless benefits and a one-time Social Security bonus have helped mask the damage done by the worst employment slump since the Great Depression.Personal incomes, which include interest income, dividends, rents and other payments as well as wages, tumbled 1.3 percent in June, more than forecast and the biggest drop in four years, yesterday’s Commerce report showed. Excluding the effects of the stimulus plan, June incomes would have dropped 0.1 percent after no change in May, according to the report. In May, one-time additional payments to Social Security recipients boosted incomes 1.3 percent.One of every 10 American workers will be without a job by early 2010, economists project, shaking the confidence of those still on payrolls and discouraging spending. It may take as long as 15 years for consumers to fully repair finances battered by the decline in home values, stocks and employment, said Edmund Phelps, winner of the Nobel prize in economics in 2006.Shrinking Net WorthDecreasing pay is not the only hurdle for consumers. Plunging home prices and stocks reduced household net worth by a record $13.9 trillion from the third quarter of 2007 through this year’s first quarter, according to figures from the Fed.“Households are going to have to do an awful lot of rebuilding of their wealth,” Phelps, a professor at Columbia University in New York, said this week in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “Even if that rebuilding goes on at a pretty good clip, it will take 12 or 15 years for households to get to the wealth level that they had several years ago. Consumer demand is going to take a long time to rebuild to normal levels.”In the second half, incomes and spending will be hurt by the loss of transitory factors such as lower fuel prices, decreased tax rates and the one-time payment to retirees, William Dudley, president of the Fed Bank of New York, said in a speech last week.Save More“Consumer spending is unlikely to rise much faster than income” because of the need to boost savings, he said. “Weak income growth will be an effective constraint on the pace of consumer spending.”Companies continue to trim expenses, threatening further cuts in pay and benefits. Tenneco Inc., the world’s largest maker of vehicle-exhaust systems, temporarily lowered pay and hours worked to reduce labor costs by 10 percent. Earlier this year, the Lake Forest, Illinois-based company suspended contributions to employees’ 401(k) retirement accounts and cut pay for the top 50 executives.Government assistance such as the “cash-for-clunkers” program will help postpone the inevitable increase in savings and slowdown in spending as more baby boomers approach retirement, said David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc. in Toronto.“Spending is in desperate need of gimmicks like cash-for- clunkers in order to grow on a short-term basis,” he said.Lifting Auto SalesThe program, which offers as much as $4,500 for trading in older, less fuel-efficient cars, ran through its $1 billion fund in about a week, and Congress is considering adding $2 billion. Auto industry data this week showed sales jumped to an 11.3 million annual pace last month, the highest level since September.Mounting joblessness is among reasons that economists such as Rosenberg say will prompt Americans to save more. Unemployment, already at a 26-year high of 9.5 percent in June, may top 10 percent by early next year, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg last month.Economists estimate that a Labor Department report at the end of the week will show employers cut an additional 328,000 workers from payrolls in July. That would bring the total loss of jobs since the recession began in December 2007 to 6.8 million.The savings rate in June fell to 4.6 percent as incomes dropped, yesterday’s Commerce Department report showed. The rate, which reached a 14-year high of 6.2 percent the previous month, is likely to keep climbing, Rosenberg said. A rate as high as 15 percent can’t be ruled out, he said.“This is a different consumer than we had in the past 20 years,” Rosenberg said. “People are going to increasingly be putting more money into cookie jars, rather than into buying more cookie jars.”

Dollar Bullish on Friday,Will it Continue This Week?

05:14 AM (GMT +7)

Dollar strenght significant on friday, EUR/USD meet my first target and bottomed 1.4154 and closed at 1.4181. My next target should be 1.4100, but for sure I have to wait till EUR/USD give me a clear signal would dollar continue bullish or not. Time frame 4H give a signal that bearish on EUR/USD still in progress, nevertheless, from previous candle that already formed, it formed a spinning top that indicated bear power getting loss it power and might need a bounce up. My opinion supported by TF 1 H, that price already in oversold rea (RSI level 14). Possibility it will move up to 1.4238 - 1.4255. Nearest resistant that hold price turn to bullish back at 1.4273/80 if this could be through I will reconsider it and might will change my option to buy. But as long as price stay bellow, my main idea sell for EUR/USD.

So it is time for wait and see. I'm not decide what I want to do beside, this is monday morning, start of asian market would not good to determine EUR/USD direction. I will update this post soon after I make decision

TF 4H EUR/USD's Chart

TF 1H EUR/USD's Chart

UPDATE1 - 02.19 PM (GMT+7)


RSI(14) steady bellow 50, 2 bearish candle already formed evening star on friday, EMA 5(blue) through EMA 66 (red) and I think EMA 20 (green) will follow soon based on indication from Time Frame 1 Hours.








On Time frame 1 H, RSI(14) steady bellow 50, EMA 5(blue) and 20 (green) steady moved bellow EMA 66 (red) and after try to going up ema 5 failed to get through ema 20 wich mean pull back up already loss the momentum and I think it's big chance to go down, to re test 1.4154 and if steady I hope it will push lower to 1.4072.




I already take one position, sell EUR/USD at 1.4205 a fiew minutes ago, my target at 1.4100. I put stop loss at 1.4255. I will check it before London session closed


UPDATE 2 - August 11, 2009 - 02.05 AM (GMT+7)

During US session, I've got a trouble with my internet's connection. But on midnight my internet connection already fixed, and when I look at my chart, price already moved near to my target. I'm wait but is it not meet my target, it just reach 1.4104 and then EUR/USD seems like want to bounce up. I don't want to take a risk during instability internet connection so I already cut (hard exit) at 1.4131. I'm still see bearish but I will wait on next day for next strategy and for sure. For now 74 pips is not to bad for me.

summary of trading results August 2009 ( Eur/ USD )

*Day 1, Date : July 06, 2009 : original position sell on market price at 1.4389, Target Hit at 1.4265.
Result: Profit : 124 pips


*Day 2, Date : July 10, 2009 : original position sell on market price at 1.4205, Hrd Exit at 1.4131.
Result: Profit : 74 pips

Try Forex Trading And Earn More

Tired of Your Of Your Day Job? Have you always wanted to be your own boss, but never had the chance? Does working at home sounds appealing? If you answered yes, to all these questions, then this is probably the best time for you to try Foreign Exchange Trading.Currency Exchange or Forex has always been the place for financial investors and institutions for years. The public perception that only the wealth and wise are allowed to participate in this income generating activity. But nothing can be farther from the truth. For a couple of years now, many Americans that are considered in work from home jobs are actually into trading FOREX. Not only are they more financially secure and stable, but also they don’t have to leave their homes to earn a living.You work from home. Jobs like that doesn’t sound too bad right?This means that they can afford to have more money and not spend their hard earned cash in spending for transportation, gas and other miscellaneous expenses when going to work. They also don’t have to worry about answering to managers and supervisors that drive them crazy at work. As far as these traders are concerned, they work for themselves.You do not have to worry if you don’t understand the Foreign Exchange Market at first. It is a simple industry to understand. If you are interested in trading in the FOREX market, all you need to do is to get a reliable automated trading system on your home computer and you’re good to go. Forex Robots are there to assist and do actual trades for you even when you are not home. This certainly frees up your time to pursue other activities that you’ve always wanted.One particular system that has stirred up the trading industry is FapTurbo Forex Robot. This software was developed thru years of research and trading knowledge of a veteran forex trader. This automated trading system has started to build momentum with the numerous satisfied traders that use it to earn more in their trades. Most have double or even tripled the money that they earn in a month. Certainly, this job earns more than the average work from home jobs you may know.

Finance, Credit, Investments

Scientific works in the theories of finances and credit, according to the specification of the research object, are characterized to be many-sided and many-leveled.The definition of totality of the economical relations formed in the process of formation, distribution and usage of finances, as money sources is widely spread. For example, in “the general theory of finances” there are two definitions of finances:1) “…Finances reflect economical relations, formation of the funds of money sources, in the process of distribution and redistribution of national receipts according to the distribution and usage”. This definition is given relatively to the conditions of Capitalism, when cash-commodity relations gain universal character;2) “Finances represent the formation of centralized ad decentralized money sources, economical relations relatively with the distribution and usage, which serve for fulfillment of the state functions and obligations and also provision of the conditions of the widened further production”. This definition is brought without showing the environment of its action. We share partly such explanation of finances and think expedient to make some specification.

Investing Tips

The stock market should present you with a wide variety of NEW hot stocks in 2009. Many of them are going to be new technology stocks that come from the nanotech, biotech, financial, energy, healthcare & communications sectors.Most of them might seem promising, but the truth is that a good number of these trading & investing opportunities could be extremely risky, while others are simply not as good as they look. That's why it's very important to know how to choose among the best especially if you want to day trade them.When you know how to pick and approach the best hot stock trading opportunities, you are able to generate a consistent and respectable amount of money in a very short period of time.Experienced day traders recognize that trading hot stocks on momentum can be the fastest way to make money in the stock market, especially on uncertain times like these.You don't necessarily have to trade momentum hot stocks all the time. But you can learn how to take advantage of them when you encounter the best opportunities for going long or for shorting them to make money when they are poised to fall down.