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U.S. Building Permits Data to Drive USD Trading Today

The forex market is set to go very volatile on the release of Building Permits data from the U.S. In turn, this is likely to be crucial in determining the Dollar's strength, as this week's trading comes to a close. If the results equal to or higher than the forecasted 0.52 million, then the USD may record a bullish trading session today. On the other hand, if the data is worse than forecast, then the Dollar could possibly fall against its major currency pairs. Traders are also advised to follow Crude Oil prices today, as sudden movements in this commodity may have a strong impact on the USD.



USD - Dollar Drops on Poor Economic Data

Yesterday the Dollar depreciated against all its main currencies crosses. The greenback's biggest drop was against the EUR, as the EUR/USD pair rose above the 1.4150 level. The Dollar also dropped against the Pound and the Yen as well.

The Treasury International Capital (TIC) published the Long-Term Purchases report yesterday. This report measures the difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by US citizens and U.S long-term securities purchased by foreigners during May. The figures showed a negative balance of $19.8 billion. The data also showed that China's holding of U.S treasury securities topped $800 billion. The gigantic debt has raised concerns that it might have the potential to erode the value of the Dollar in the long term.

Also yesterday, the Philadelphia Manufacturing Index, which is used to measure the business conditions in the Federal Reserve district, was published. The report showed a -7.5 mark, which means that the factory activity in the district has contracted for the 10th consecutive month in July. This contributed to the Dollar's downfall as well.

As for today, very important housing data are scheduled from the U.S. At 12:30 GMT, both the Building Permits and Housing Starts indicators will be published. The two are leading gauge of the housing sector in the U.S, and has the potential to severely impact the market. According to current forecasts, the housing sector has shown relatively positive figures in June. If the actual result will be similar or even higher than forecasts, the USD might be able to correct yesterday's slide. Traders are advised to follow the publications, and take advantage of their impact on the market.

EUR - EUR Hits 2 Week High against the Dollar

The EUR continued its bullish trend against the Dollar yesterday, and the EUR/USD is currently trading near the 1.4130 level. The EUR rose against the Pound as well and declined slightly against the JPY.

The EUR climbed against the Dollar as poor data was released from the U.S economy and Crude Oil's prices rose, which further weakened the Dollar. This drove the European currency to a 2 week high against the USD.

The positive data from the Euro-Zone leading nations also supported the EUR yesterday. The French Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in June, showing that fears from deflation are very unlikely, resulting in a temporary relief for the crisis-hit economy. The Italian Trade Balance, which measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during May, rose by 1.19 billion EUR. This has a crucial impact on the Italian economy, which relies greatly on its exporting activity.

Looking ahead to today, the only significant data from the Euro-Zone will be the European Trade Balance. Analysts forecast a 1.2B result, which means that the exporting activity in the Euro-Zone was larger by 1.2 billion EUR from importing during May. If the actual result will be similar to forecasts, it will be the first positive result in 13 months. In turn, this may have a positive effect on the EUR.

JPY - JPY Records Mixed Results against the Majors

The Yen underwent an extremely volatile session against the major currencies yesterday. Although the Yen did not see a sharp depreciation yesterday, it is about to mark the biggest weekly loss against the EUR in two months, following an extremely bearish week. The most significant publication from the Japanese economy was the Tertiary Industry Activity report. The report failed to reach expectations for a 0.3% rise, as the actual result showed that the value of services purchased has dropped by 0.1% in May.

As for now, current expectations are assuming that the Yen may fall against the EUR on speculations an advance in stocks will increase demand for higher yielding assets. The JPY is known as a currency which rises in times of global financial crisis, and it seems that the rising stocks could be a leading sign for the financial improvement which has the potential to significantly weaken the Yen.

Crude Oil - Crude Oil Completes Bullish Week

Crude Oil continued to hold its yesterday, and a barrel of Oil is currently traded for $62.70. Crude Oil is currently heading for its first bullish week in more than a month.
Crude rose as a result of two leading factors. One, the bearishness of the USD supported the price of Oil. Crude Oil's prices are valued in Dollars, and thus any depreciation in the USD's value has the potential to further push-up Oil prices. Higher global equity markets also restored optimism that an economic recovery is impending.

An improvement in economic conditions is set to increase demand for Crude Oil, which will of course hike Crude Oil prices. This week might be acknowledged as the first strong sign that investors have regained their faith in Crude Oil as a long-term investment. Traders are now advised to follow the news from the strongest economies and especially from the U.S in order to predict Oil's direction for the coming weeks. It seems that as long as the news will show that the world is pulling out of recession, Crude Oil prices are likely to rise.

Article Source - U.S. Building Permits Data to Drive USD Trading Today

Managing Forex Trading Risk

With an average daily volume of $1.4 trillion, the forex market is larger than all the futures markets combined and managing forex trading risks is imperitive to success.
Once the closely held secret of banks and corporations, forex trading is now available to the public along with the same risks and rewards. More than any other market, the forex market can move against you quickly. The best way to manage your risks is to thoroughly understand how this unique market works and what drives it up and down. Your experience with other markets can help you understand but still, the foreign exchange market is difficult to predict.
The risks of forex trading are high as price can fluctuate for reasons that are out of our control and unforeseeable including shifts in political and economic policy. These unpredictable circumstances are what drives the value of these currencies up and down and changes their value in respect to other currencies. It is this very volatility that attracts investors. It’s imperative that you understand all of your buying and selling options so you (and your broker) can react to these currency fluctuations instantaneously.
Besides knowing about FX in general, another way to control your risk is to manage your trades without emotion. We know we should only trade with money we can afford to lose, but when we are losing (and winning) oftentimes we let our emotions get involved in our trading decisions. Doing so can increase your risks considerably so don’t let this happen!
Instead, determine a percentage you are willing to risk on each trade and stick with it. Some traders are willing to risk up to 3% or more on every trade. This may not seem like a lot to risk, but 3% of $100,000 is $3,000. When you have multiple trades open, it’s important to stay on top of the percentage that you have at risk because multiple losses can be devastating and one big loss can wipe out all of your other profits.
Most forex brokers provide the ability to set stop losses. You should determine your stop loss at the time when you enter a trade, and set the stop loss in the trading program. When your stop loss is reached, your trade will be automatically closed out, limiting your potential loss.
It is important to take the volatility of the market into account when determining your stop loss amount. If you set it too large, you could lose a significant amount of capital before the stop loss is triggered. If you set it too small, the random ups and downs in the market will mean that your position is being closed early, incurring additional transaction costs.
Another smart risk management strategy is to avoid holding positions in two currencies which tend to move together like the British Pound and the Euro. These currencies are correlated. The most common pairing of currencies is the US Dollar and the Euro. Since the British Pound and the Euro typically move in the same direction up or down, you should look to select a second pairing of the US Dollar with a currency other than the British Pound.
You should also avoid taking a long and short position in currencies which generally move in opposite directions. This is the same situation – you are taking on more risk than you need to.
And finally, leave the gambling urge to the casino crowd. If you’ve lost money on your previous few trades, don’t double-up your next trade in order to “recoup” your previous losses. Your odds of profiting on your next trade won’t increase as a result of your previous losses. The odds of winning remain 50-50 every time you

Forex Trading Success: Low Risk & High Rewards

For the savvy forex trader the best opportunities are at big market turning points. Although the majority never spot them they offer the highest reward and the lowest risk and if you can spot them you can enjoy forex trading success.A market (any financial market not just currency trading) moves to this equationMarket Fundamentals + Human Perception = PriceIt's a fact that humans are not creatures of logic but of greed and fear and they always push prices to far up or down away from the fundamentals and then prices return to more realistic values.All short term, accelerated price spikes in forex trading are short lived and prices tend to turn when the fundamentals are most bullish or bearish and that has been true since the start of trading.The majority of losing forex traders get caught at these turning points (95%) and the savvy pros make a killing - so how do you spot these changes and enjoy currency trading success?They can be seen on any forex chart and if you have the right technical tools you can act on them and get your market timing right and execute a great contrary trade.Here are some clues on how to spot these turning points.Watch for a forex trend that is moving quickly and accelerating upwards, moving based upon bullish or bearish news that says there is no end in sight.Bollinger BandsNext watch for high volatility and a great way to spot this is a price at the outer Bollinger Bands or beyond it.Now you can be alert for a trend change.You don't predict you wait for confirmation and check 3 other indicators (all the indicators here are discussed in our other articles so look them up)Look for the ADX Line to be above 40 combined with RSI in overbought territory.Now Confirm Your Trading SignalTo trigger the move, watch for a stochastic reading to cross down with bearish divergence (in a bull market) or up with bullish divergence (in a bear market), to trigger a sell from overbought or oversold levels.This set up is even better if it has been preceded by an ADX signal turning down from above 40.Trading Price Momentum DivergenceThe above tools if used in the above way, in a forex trading system, on strong bull or bear markets, will help you catch a counter trend as the bullish or bearish news peaks and momentum diverges with price.With a little practice you will never miss a big turning point again also, the more volatile and exaggerated the move the better!100% + ProfitsThese are what I call the 10:1 trades and they will normally see the amount of potential reward to be 10 times the risk.Most traders can't do the above.They get influenced by the herd and the news - but if you stay detached watch your charts and execute your forex trading system with discipline, you can pile up huge profits.Emotional Price Spikes Will ALWAYS OccurHuman nature is constant and humans always push prices to far up or down - so this method will always work.Savvy forex traders and make sure their smiling and making big profits while the losing majority get hammered.If you want to enjoy forex trading success, practice the above and you will soon be piling up some big FX profitS.

EUR/USD Strategies on July 17, 2009

09.43 AM (GMT+7)



Awaken this morning, have cold coffe and soon turn on my computer,this is friday and it's always interesting trading in friday. I'm still on my option: prefer to buy EUR/USD but does not mean I don't think about possibility bearish.From this 30 minutes's chart shows price action already through EMA 66, this is could be a warning, it will turn to bearish soon after EMA 5 (blue) and follow by EMA 20 ( green) going through EMA 66 (red) I may will change, prefer to sell EUR/USD. But meanwhile I stick on my plan : bullis are idea for today.


EUR/USD - Time Frame 30 minutes
My nearest resistant is the previous EMA movement, level which is EMA 5 crossed down to EMA 20 at 1.4134 area as the comfirmation reverse from 1.4166 continue. In my view, price seems like want to push 1.4070 and if it's happen and steady it could test 1.4044 which is my key level, if steady below 1.4044 I believe it might change direction for next several days. Oposite, if price could not break 1.4070 or it break but bouncing up, I'd prefer in my plan, EUR/USD might goes up for more, and if break 1.4134 I think it will re test 1.4166 and if steady it can up for more to 1.4202 as resistant and would hold EUR/USD reach 1.4310.

Based from that I wrote above, I already set pending order. I set Buy Stop at 1.4135, my Stop Loss at 1.4095 and my target at 1.4185

UPDATE - 01:36 PM (GMT+7)

My pending executed but it failed hold and fall to my SL. Bad begining for today, loss 40 pips. May be I can catch it latter, now I'm just wait for EUR/USD



UPDATE - 09:35 (GMT +7)

EUR/USD failed through 1.4044, as my main plan, now I'm hoping Eur/USD will test today's Hi. This bullish pattern now clearly shows at both 30 minutes and 15 minutes chart. I've already take one Long position bye market price at 1.4123 with 1.4093 as my Stop Loss while target I leave it open. I will keep watching it and decide next move later


TF 30 minutes:
















TF 15 minutes:

Crude Rises the Most in 3 Weeks

Crude Oil prices remain steady at above $61 a barrel on Thursday, after gaining 3.4% in the previous session. Oil's gains on Wednesday came after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a bigger-than-forecast drop in Crude supplies last week. And along with a weak U.S. dollar, which traded near a month low against major currencies, this supported the rally in Oil prices. Investors will be keenly watching the weekly U.S. jobless claims data due to be released later on Thursday, for a clue of a possible rebound of the world's largest economy.



USD - USD Plummets as Stock Markets Rally

The Dollar dropped against most of its major currency counterparts yesterday as a rally in global stock markets diminished demand for the safety of the U.S currency. The Dollar traded at $1.4108 per EUR after sliding 1% yesterday and reaching a day's low of $1.4135, the weakest level since July 2nd. However the USD was up against the Yen trading at 94.36 from 93.39 late Tuesday.

Better than expected results from the New York Manufacturing Index and as expected results from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which were released Wednesday put further pressure on the Dollar. However the major mover in the market Wednesday were the equity markets, with U.S stocks rallying sharply following the release of better than expected 2nd quarter earnings from Intel.

It is likely that earnings results will continue to dominate market movements in the following days as the earnings from J.P. Morgan Chase, Citigroup and Bank of America are due later this week. Traders should also follow the release of the Unemployment Claims, TIC Long Term Purchases and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index to be released today at 12:30 GMT, 13:00 GMT and 14:00 GMT respectively as these results may either strengthen or reverse the current bearish sentiment on the Dollar.

EUR - EUR Gains on Renewed Market Optimism

Benefiting from the return of risk appetite and gains in equities the EUR traded at $1.4112 versus the USD, up from $1.3935 late Tuesday. The EUR was also up against the Yen trading at 133.12 up from 130.14 yesterday. The British pound jumped to $1.6425 against the USD from $1.6270 Tuesday.

The EUR was little changed after a report showed Annual Consumer Price Inflation in the Euro-Zone fell 0.1% in June, marking negative inflation in the region for the first time since its creation. The British Pound rose 0.6% versus the Dollar following gains in financial sector stocks. The Pound was little affected by the overall pessimistic economic data released Wednesday from the U.K. The data showed the number of people claiming jobless benefits in June rose at its slowest pace in more than a year; however the overall unemployment rate rose to its highest level since January 1997.

With no major news due to be released today from Europe, traders should follow the data to be released from the U.S as these will have great affect on any USD currency crosses. Furthermore, traders should follow closely the continuing release of the corporate earning reports as they will continue to be the driving force behind the movement in equity markets and consequently the demand for riskier currencies such as the EUR and GBP.

JPY - The Yen Slides as Investors Move to Riskier Assets

The Yen slid against the EUR, trading at 133.01 per EUR after declining as much as 2.1% in its largest intraday loss since May. The Yen was also down 0.8% against the USD trading at $94.25. The drop followed a report that showed U.S. industrial production for June fell less than forecasted and Intel Corp.'s second quarter earnings were higher than estimated.

The JPY experienced a phenomenal rally these past two weeks as investors retuned to the safety of the Japanese currency following the release of poor U.S employment data. However, this rally was snapped Monday with a better than expected start to the 2nd quarter earnings season. The positive earnings reports from Goldman Sachs and Intel rekindled risk appetite among investors diminishing demand for the safe haven Yen and in turn pushing them to riskier, higher yielding currencies. With stock markets continuing to rally it is likely the JPY will extend its losses during today's trading as well.

OIL - Oil Prices Rise as U.S stockpiles Fall

Crude Oil continues to climb as stock markets rally and U.S Crude Oil Inventories showed a larger than expected decline. Crude oil for August delivery rose as much as 47 cents or 0.8% to $62.01 a barrel Wednesday. The weak Dollar and huge rally in the stock market following the release of Intel's forecast sales helped boost Oil prices. Crude inventories fell by 2.81 million barrels vs. the expected 2.1million and refineries are operating at 87.9%, the highest since August. However demand is still weak and so it is unlikely Oil prices will reach $70 a barrel again in the short term and it is likely to remain in the $60-$65 range.

Article Source - Crude Rises the Most in 3 Weeks

New Zealand Dollar Tumbles as Fitch Downgrades Credit Outlook to a 'Negative' (Euro Open)

The New Zealand Dollar fell sharply late into the overnight session as credit rating agency Fitch downgraded the smaller antipode’s long-term credit rating to “negative” and warned the country could fall into a “low growth trap”. A slew of earnings reports from top companies including Carrefour and SAP are likely to guide price action in the coming session.

Key Overnight Developments

• NZD Tumbles as Fitch Downgrades Credit Outlook to ‘Negative’
• New Zealand Consumer Prices Fall to Lowest in Nearly 2 Years
• NZ Manufacturing Continues to Stabilize as New Orders Gain
• Japanese Service Demand Unexpectedly Drops on Job Losses

Critical Levels



The Euro fell in overnight trading, losing as much as -0.3% to the US dollar. The British Pound followed suit, shedding -0.4% against the greenback to test as low as 1.6379.

Asia Session Highlights



New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index declined less than economists expected in the second quarter, with the annual inflation rate falling to 1.9%, the lowest since the three months ending September 2007. Forecasts were pointing to a 1.8% result ahead of the release. Transportation and transport supply costs led the drop, -6.6% and -9.5% from a year before. Lower fuel prices and cheaper airfares were likely behind the drop-off: gasoline prices fell 17% from a year before while the average cost of air travel tumbled 21% in the same period as companies slashed prices to entice consumers amid the global recession. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has said that they expect inflation to fall below the 1-3% target range this year but return to desirable levels by early 2010. RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard added this week that New Zealand is likely to recover faster than its main trading partners from the current downturn, boosting expectations that the central bank will begin raising interest rates sooner rather than later. Indeed, overnight index swaps now show the market is pricing in 79 basis points in tightening over the next 12 months, second only to the Federal Reserve that is seen hiking rates by 82bps over the same time frame.

Separately, the Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing measure rose to 46.2 in June from 43.1 in the previous month. The result suggests the sector continues to shrink, albeit at the slowest pace in 9 months. New Orders led the metric higher, expanding for the first time since April 2008. In annual percentage terms, new orders and output saw positive growth for the first time in at least 7 months. Manufacturing figures have been stabilizing in most industrial countries in recent months as producers adjust inventories to current demand levels; it remains to be seen if this process will translate into a sustainable recovery going forward.

Japan’s Tertiary Index surprised to the downside, showing service demand shrank -0.1% in May versus expectations for a 0.4% gain. It seems job losses are starting to catch up with the world’s second largest economy even as the effects of the government’s massive 25 trillion yen fiscal package continue to be digested. Consumption is likely to remain lackluster as the unemployment rate continues to climb, weighing on overall economic growth and holding back recovery from the worst Japanese recession since World War II. Yesterday, the Bank of Japan slashed its GDP growth forecast for the 2009 fiscal year and said consumer demand “remains generally weak.”

The New Zealand Dollar tumbled 50 pips in a mere 15 minutes late into Asian trading as Fitch cut its long-term credit outlook for the smaller antipodean nation to “negative” from “stable”. The ratings agency expressed concern over New Zealand’s medium-term growth outlook given its “persistently large current account deficit and rising foreign indebtedness”. Fitch warned that the government may need to implement a “stronger fiscal adjustment” after Prime Minister John Key cancelled tax cut plans on fears of the ballooning public deficit. Fitch Asia Pacific Director Ai Ling Ngiam said New Zealand could “fall into a low growth trap”, an allusion to Japan’s infamous “lost decade” of stagnant economic performance. Fitch added that the volatility of the New Zealand Dollar complicates the necessary adjustments, with the currency “more responsive to global financial conditions than to domestic economic fundamentals.”

Euro Session: What to Expect



The economic calendar looks tame in European hours, with the July edition of Switzerland’s ZEW Survey of analyst sentiment the only notably item on the docket. The metric rebounded sharply in June, registering the first positive reading in close to three years. The forward-looking bias of the survey’s respondents tends to see it lead actual trend changes in the exchange rate, however, so a meaningful near-term impact is unlikely barring a wild deviation from recent figures once the data crosses the wires.

On balance, forex price action is likely to fall in with risk trends once again as earnings season continues, with notable reports due from: Carrefour SA, Europe’s largest retailer; Novartis AG, Europe’s second-largest pharmaceutical firm; Accor SA, Europe’s top hotel company; and SAP AG, the world’s biggest computer services provider.

Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Analyst
Article Source - New Zealand Dollar Tumbles as Fitch Downgrades Credit Outlook to a 'Negative' (Euro Open)

EUR/USD Strategies on July 16, 2009

12:19 PM (GMT+7)


My last OP not hit it target, not yet, but I'm sure it will soon, so I will keep it running as my first plan. Meanwhile, my pending order that I've been set yesterday already canceled. I will keep on eyes follow market move and decided what I have to do latter. Now I just stay at the plan.


UPDATE: 02.02 PM (GMT+7)

My last position already clear, target hit. Now I'm looking for todays chance, and here is it:

EUR/USD - Time Frame 30 minutes
Indication weak bullish but it stay hold aslong as EMA 5 (blue) and EMA 20 (green ) could not through EMA 66 (red), and price action already crossdown EMA 66, this could be a warning, would price go down or bouncing back and bullish trend will continue. I will wait smaller time frames give sign, sell or buy I will decided it from TF 15 and 5 minutes act.






UPDATE: 02.22 PM (GMT+7)
I already entry buy EUR/USD at 1.4081, with open target, here is it my reason:

EUR/USD - Time Frame 15 minutes:
RSI hold above 50 ( so do TF 30),bullish already come back. It can be seen from candle's pattern and also Parabolic SAR wich is already formed first/nearest suport at 1.4055-1.4044. From these, and also EMA's pattern in TF 30 I already buy at 1.4081, my SL at 1.4044, and I let it with open target, I will decide my target later on US market.





UPDATE - 07:37 PM (GMT+7)

I've seen there is potencialy deep reverse on EUR/USD based on shooting star candle on TF 5 minutes, I closed my position at 1.4146 (+65 pips) and try to catch another pips if I'm sure it give me nice sign.


UPDATE - 08:08 PM (GMT+7)

Now I already take one short, I've got at 1.4130, I will write my reason but later, I have very close to watch it....

Here we go, my base reason why I take short:

EUR/USD - Time Frame 15 minutes
Candle pattern shows bullish getting weak, RSI also give a sign downward to EMA 50, EMA movement getting curved down, in my opinion it will try to push 1.4105, I already take short at 1.4130, my SL at 1.4168 and my target at 1.4115





UPDATE 09:02 PM (GMT+7)

Target hit all clear. I think time for stop, for EUR/USD, today pretty good, I don't want greed will ruin everything I got. Now I just wanna chat, surfing, etc, doing something 'light' and fun. I will catch EUR/USD next day.

European Economic Sentiment Plunges, EUR Flattens

Surprising the market yesterday was the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment report which showed confidence throughout the Euro-Zone's largest economy had plunged throughout the previous month, highlighting that economic fundamentals have finally hit home the fact that recovery is not yet around the corner. This report, since identifying what was already known, had a muted impact on the value of the EUR as investors had likely already priced in the bad news from previous economic reports. Today's economic figures will likely have a much stronger effect on the market now that confidence reports more closely resemble the market itself.



USD - USD Bullish on Goldman Sachs Earnings; Mixed from Retail Sales

The US Dollar completed yesterday's trading session with mixed results versus the major currencies as U.S. data on retail sales and producer prices beat expectations, boosting hopes that the economy is on a slow path to recovery. By yesterday's close, the USD had fallen against the GBP, pushing the oft-traded currency pair to 163.25. The greenback did see some bullishness as well as it gained 50 pips against the JPY and closed at 93.56.

Investment bank Goldman Sachs reported strong profits yesterday, but economic signals from the United States and Europe dimmed optimism that a global recovery may be on the horizon. In addition, U.S. retailers beat expectations with a 0.6% sales rise in June, boosted by a big jump in auto sales. But excluding both autos and gasoline, sales were down 0.2 % in a fourth consecutive monthly decline. The slight rise in risk appetite also boosted higher-yielding currencies at the expense of both the Yen and USD, which tend to see their biggest gains when investors grow anxious and buy them as safe havens.

USD trading will be interesting today as important economic data is expected to be released. From 12:30 GMT a series of economic indicators will begin to be released, starting with Core CPI figures, the Empire State Manufacturing Index, Industrial Production and Crude Oil Inventories. Surprisingly, almost all of these releases are expected to be higher than their previous figures, meaning the USD could show bullishness today. Traders are also advised to follow FOMC Meeting Minutes at 18:00 GMT. This meeting is very important as it is very likely to impact the Dollar's volatility. Traders are advised to watch closely, as this is likely to set the pace of the Dollar going into the rest of this week's trading.

EUR - EUR Pressured by German Economic Sentiment Figures

The EUR finished yesterday's trading session with mixed results versus the major currencies. The 16-nation currency extended gains versus the Japanese yen on Tuesday, to trade above $130.75 amid a broad sell-off in the yen. The EUR experienced similar behavior against the CHF as the pair rose from 151.40 to 152.10 by days end. The EUR did see bearishness as well as it lost around 60 pips against the GPB and closed at 0.8560.

Data showed German investors have turned more pessimistic than expected in July for the first time in nine months, a signal analysts say means the nation's economy will not start growing until next year at least. Euro-Zone industrial production data also disappointed, growing only slightly in May after a bad release in April and remaining 17% lower than it was a year earlier.

Optimism about the German economy has grown in recent weeks, with data pointing to stabilization in the manufacturing sector and government officials saying gross domestic product (GDP) could be flat or slightly higher in the April-June period, breaking a string of four straight quarters of contraction. But the Mannheim-based ZEW economic think tank's monthly index of economic sentiment fell yesterday to 39.5 from 44.8 in June, the first drop since October 2008, signifying that expectations for a speedy recovery have begun to fall.

JPY - Yen Losing Ground on All Fronts

The JPY saw a bearish trading session yesterday, losing ground against most of its currency crosses. The JPY fell sharply against the Sterling Pound, pushing the oft-traded currency pair to 152.50. The Japanese yen experience similar behavior against the EUR and closed at 130.55.

The Japanese market should have a heavy effect on the JPY versus its major currency counterparts, as the Overnight Call Rate will be announced today. The rate is expected to remain unchanged, but traders should pay close attention to the BoJ Press Conference that will follow to look for expectations of Japan's economic future. A bullish statement from the BoJ could lead some traders to believe that it is forecasting a rosier financial climate in Japan.

Crude Oil - Crude Oil Inventories to be Released Today

Crude Oil prices rose slightly yesterday in seesaw trading as concerns about consumer demand tempered an earlier rally on optimism reflected in a global equities rally. Oil prices have fallen by about $14 a barrel, or 19%, since June 30th after poor employment data from the U.S. and Europe raised doubts that the global economy was poised for a strong recovery this year.

Today, the release of crude oil inventory data is likely to help determine the market's next direction for the black gold. Moreover, a release of a string of positive economic figures from the U.S could help its bullishness. Therefore, traders are advised now to make some profits as the price of Crude Oil is set to remain volatile in the short-medium term.

Article Source - European Economic Sentiment Plunges, EUR Flattens

EUR/USD Strategies on July 15, 2009

04:03 PM (GMT+7)

EUR/USD - Time Frame 30 minutes

Bullish indeed, but candle said it getting weak, EMA 5 ( blue) already curve down that also indicated bullish lost power to goes up. In my opinion it's need a drawdown and I figure 1.4017 it's ok.If it's goes for more, I will re consider my 'bullish main frame'. So I've already set limit order(pending order) buy at 1.4020 and my target at 1.4100. My expectation EUR/USD will test 1.4136 today. I will set my Stop Loss later, I must check the price action first once my order executed.Nearest resistant at 1.4082 and next would be 1.4136, while support seems like at 1.4000 and the strong one at 1.3965.I will set my limit order until US market close, if it is not executed today, I will cancel it.


UPDATE - 09:32 PM (GMT+7)

I decided keep my pending order and now I'm make one entry and I've already sell at market price at 1.4105, my stop los at 1.4140 and my target at 1.4060. Time to go sleep.

Recent Forex Efforts

Since the recent yen cross meltdown started I've been trying to keep
from getting caught on the wrong side of any massive downward moves.As
I generally trade only the AUDJPY, mostly on the long side, things have
been pretty quiet!However, we are now facing some resistance at 74.50
on the 1hr -- which should be illustrative. We have done what might be
a triple bounce off of support in the

EUR/USD Strategies on July 14, 2009

02:03 PM (GMT +7)


I've already buy EUR/USD at 1.3978. My decision based on this things: ( I will update it after I set my SL and target, need a fiew miunuetes)


Update :

EUR/USD - Time Frame 3o minutes
From this I see bullish still strong, even it's not break resistant at 1.4017 yet but from TF 15 minutes chart there is indication it will soon, I hope I'm right. EMA movement based on 'alligator's principle' shows it is bullish,RSI stay hold around 50, nearest resistant has been formed by Parabolic SAR on 1.4015/17 once it break I believe price will try to push 1.4050 and there is possibility a little retrace down on that level, so 1.4050 was my control point if EUR/USD break it resistant.

EUR/USD - Time Frame 5 minutes

From this time frame, I can see retrace already complete once price touch EMA 365, but lower EMA could not break it, these, based on 'cornflower' patern was the best moment to make re position. Candle make it clearly when previous candle formed hammer. So as I mention above, I've already make entry, Buy at 1.3978, SL at 1.3948 and target 1.4038. I will keep on eye especialy there were some news from UK and Euro latter,I hate fundamentals but I need to know it ...may be I'll change my mind latter but now, technical is my option.

EUR/USD Strategies on July 13, 2009

03:01 PM (GMT +7)

Quite slow in EUR/USD today. I'm still hold my last position ( open buy EUR/USD at 1.3920 on Friday night). I am not make new entry, not yet. I'm just change my SL to 1.3895, and still open my target. I will set it latter after news from Euro (if it stay and SL hold on),


UPDATE - 05:45 PM (GMT+7)

EUR/USD - TF 30 mnt
Bullish getting stronger, I said this because EMA 5 (blue)crossing up EMA 66 (red) and EMA 20 (green)in progress, RSI movement above 50, Parabolic SAR and candle pattern also shows upper movement. Today I feel tired and this english matter make me feel so dumb. OK, so I will write briefly, I'm still holding Buy from Friday, now I set SL at +10 ( 1.3930)and still, with open target. I might make new entry or close this position latter in US session. Meanwhile I need to take a bath...


UPDATE - 09:25 (GMT+7)

My TS hit, and I just got 10 pip from my OP on friday, it's ok. I will try to catch another pips later, I'm still prefer buy but maybe it try to push 1.3900, if not break I will buy.


UPDATE - 10:31(GMT+7)


EUR/USD - TF 30 mnt


Price action stay hold above EMA 66 so I've already make one entry, buy EUR/USD at market price and I've got at 1.3953, my SL : 1.3910 and my Target : 1.4003. I hope I don't mess up this time, time for sleep