Thursday, January 08, 2009

The concept of transaction Trading in Minor and major trends

Background Concepts

In foreign exchange market there are those who buy (buyer) of a currency and the selling party (seller) in other currencies. They reason that we call as "the market" foreign exchange.

Participants foreign exchange market and money market, nowadays more diverse. Survey conducted recently tended to categorize the participants as below:

o Government
o Central Bank
o International Banks
o Investment / Merchant Banks
o Other financial institutions
o Large Customer / Whole Sale
o Customer - client (speculator)

Market participants involved in the foreign exchange market have different purposes. Basically, can be grouped into three objectives, namely:

o Trading
o Hedging
o Speculating

Below is a type - the type of transaction that can be grouped in more detail, namely:

o Commercial: Export, import traffic capital, traffic and other services - other
o Funding: Loan foreign exchange, cash flow needs
o Hedging: For the purposes hedging risk on foreign exchange rate changes
o Investment: Commercial Investement, property investment and
portfolio investment
o Individual: Tourists to the needs of the individual or individuals


* So I can simpulkan that:
In addition to the foreign exchange with a large margin, there is also the foreign exchange is relatively small, also used the opportunity volatilitas a certain price range on the active exchanges in.


Analysis

The price movement of this closely related with the Supply and Demand, from the currency exchange rate.
Ex: Too much demand and prices tend to rise

In the forex market there are two factors that affect price movement:
Fundamental factors
Fundamental among other consists of political and economic factors (fiscal and monetary), and the sentiment and expectations.

Technical factors (Technical): Mapping kencendrungan price.
Some people argued that the foreign exchange rate is not influenced by the Fundamental factors, but only as a pattern repeated from time to time, so the actual direction of these changes can be predicted with the use of data - data that have been past.

The other factors that also affect price movements, namely:

Psychological factors
Request a quote or the perpetrators of the market based on estimates / ekspektasinya on the development of the exchange rate in the future with the purchase of a currency exchange rate are low and likely sell it after the exchange rate of the currency to rise or otherwise benefit from the transaction (investment / speculation)

Some investors predict movements in exchange rates by using secondary data

Based on the short-term trend may be time for:

Minor Trend (several days)
 Intermediate Trend (some sunday)
Major Trend (several months)

Based on the direction pergerakannya trend may be over:

 Uptrend
 Downtrend
 sideways trend


Concept

Experts said: "Trade with trend, never fight the trend." Trading is the best trading, which is always in line with the major trend, intermediate and minor trends trend.

Price foreign exchange moves are not linear, but as the waves that have peak and valley (move zig - zag).

Based on the background and analysis of the concept is more focused on the author of a relatively small market, but to actively do take advantage of trading opportunities from the minor difference in the price trend.

This concept is done through a mix technical factors (technical) and psychological factors regardless of market fundamentals, among others, namely:

Technical factors (Technical):

Through Software Metatrader only use Draw fibonacci Retracement (Counts Deret fibonacci),

This means taking a chance on the price and the range specified by Draw fibonacci Retracment combined with psychological market price that day yesterday! (Not the price of two or a few days ago), still provide opportunities tehadap rates running (now), as the minor actors in the market is very active to take advantage of opportunities that we often hear the price correction.

Action: Phase-phase implementation of the concept of "Trading in Minor Trend"

1. Once we download the software then we MetaTrader directly with the computer menginstalkan to us.

2. Opening the exchange rate of the desired suit us, with the type of bar chart or candle stick. Ex: GBP / USD

3. Using a standard time-scale program MetaTrader 1 hour (H 1)

4. Mengilangkan Grid, and enter a scale (Show Days / Show Period separators), so that it can memilah daily price movement.

5. Enter through the technical concepts fibonacci Retracment, selajutnya dissect / day yesterday to map out the movement as a standard input prices running (now) in other words "On The Spot Trading Price".

6. Selajutnya price range to see whether "the price goes up there on the range of 50% pergarakan price yesterday? or walk in the price range down from 50% pergarakan price yesterday? "
then we sempitkan array fibonacci retracment price range to run it.
Then we will find a range of fibonacci retracment minor.


As a note Retracment have fibonacci progression as follows:

0%, 23.6%, 38.2% 50%, 61.8%, 100%, 161.8%, 261.8%, 423.6%

Entry action:
Sell: In the range of 61, 8 - 100% target with 23.6%
Buy: In the range 0 - 23, 6% target with 61.8%

Exit Point: reversal / Switch
Switch Buy
If the price cut through chain-level 100%, above the target 161.8% fibonacci Retracment mapping according to normal (if the price risk going directly to cover the loss that occurred and the point becomes profit point.
Switch Buy
If the price level penetrate tier 0% 161.8% target under appropriate mapping fibonacci Retracment are normal or upside down (so if the price risk going directly to cover the loss that occurred and the point becomes profit point.


7. If the price has come through with the price level array fibonacci Retracment daily significantly yesterday in akibatkan by fundamental factors, the action in which to do is:
we map the range again in the range of line array fibonacci retracment minor, which occurred before, according to the price range of the latest row.


In this concept, the need is in the readiness of the transaction include:

o Trading mentality.
o of the time.
o Discipline concept


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